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Decrypting RIOT Stock’s Unexpected Dive: A New Buying Chance or Caution Ahead?

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Written by Timothy Sykes
Reviewed by Jack Kellogg Fact-checked by Ellis Hobbs

Riot Platforms Inc.’s market sentiment has been negatively impacted by several key factors: intensified regulatory scrutiny in the cryptocurrency mining sector and concerns over increasing operational costs, leading to skittish investor behavior. On Monday, Riot Platforms Inc.’s stocks have been trading down by -3.07 percent.

Recent Tremors in Cryptocurrency and Stock World

  • Major digital currencies including Bitcoin slip, falling below the $67,000 mark. This tumble shakes tech stocks and companies linked with cryptocurrencies, casting a wide net of concern.

Candlestick Chart

Live Update at 14:33:27 EST: On Monday, November 04, 2024 Riot Platforms Inc. stock [NASDAQ: RIOT] is trending down by -3.07%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

  • Global digital markets witness a downturn. The CoinDesk Market Index slumps 1.2%, reflecting a negative trend affecting firms like MicroStrategy, Riot Blockchain (RIOT), Coinbase, and Marathon Digital Holdings.

  • The fall of Bitcoin below the $70,000 threshold highlights a troubling phase in the cryptocurrency landscape, balanced against the uptrend of U.S. stock indexes.

RIOT’s Financial Standing: Twists and Turns

The rollercoaster ride of Riot Platforms Inc.’s financial metrics and market performance draws attention. The recent stock chart oscillates between highs and lows, with a closing price at $9.15 marked on Nov 4, 2024. The previous days show a fluctuation from $8.71 up to $11.19, reflecting turbulent waters in trading.

While revenues have shown strong 3-year growth of over 62%, profitability remains elusive with negative margins across the board. With a gross margin at 20.7%, a stark contrast to total profit margin ringing negative, the company struggles to capture efficiency. However, sitting on a substantial total asset value over $2.7B, RIOT demonstrates potential leverage points.

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The financial narrative also showcases a significant depreciation burden of about $37.3M, countering income potential along with a net income slipping into negative territory. This, paired with what’s reportedly a solid cash balance nearing $481M, offers potential liquidity but falls short due to heavy capital expenses.

Wavering Crypto Waves: Market Impacts and Expectations

Bitcoin’s recent downturn below the $70,000 mark has sent ripple effects throughout the crypto-connected stock universe. RIOT, highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s pulse, felt these tremors firsthand, with market analysts suggesting careful observation of cryptocurrency market stability to gauge future performance.

The volatility in Bitcoin, combined with RIOT’s tether to it, left investors pondering a precarious future. The downturn of October 30, 2024, saw declines from $10.91 to $9.25 within a day—illustrating the sway digital assets hold over related equities.

Moreover, market watchers suggest this decline marks not just a shift in what’s seen on trading floors but hints at deeper market contradictions where digital asset sentiment clashes with traditional stock optimism.

Analyzing RIOT: Risk-Taking or Risk-Averting?

Undoubtedly, Riot Platforms stands at a crossroads. The relationship it harbors with cryptocurrency prices and performance ties its fate to the same blockchain whims. When scrutinized, the company’s low debt-to-equity ratio, standing at 0.01, whispers of conservative leveraging. Yet, weak margins and loss-infused income sheets scream caution.

The company’s journey, though intriguing, is marred by brusque capital flows. Heavy investments, highlighted by negative free cash flow near $96M, could indicate a forward-looking investment strategy. However, without concurrent gains, skepticism swells.

With a PE ratio floating at 17.77, treading close to peers, questions arise: Do these numbers promise an undervaluation ready for correction, or forewarn a bubble?

Conclusion: Fortune or Folly?

The narrative surrounding RIOT sways like the cryptocurrency markets it ties itself to. Investors seeking high risk-reward scenarios might see the current downturn as a disguised gem, while those averse to volatility may consider staying wary.

In the spectral dance of gains and losses, caution advised by past financial struggles and current market signals vibrates uncomfortably. For those with a finger on the pulse of blockchain trends, RIOT offers both allure and ambiguity. Only time, and the stability of Bitcoin, would tell if today’s downturn weaves tomorrow’s fortune.

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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

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Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”