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Marqeta’s Rollercoaster: Is It Time to Get On Board?

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Written by Timothy Sykes Reviewed by Jack Kellog Fact-checked by Ellis Hobb
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Driven by the announcement of Marqeta Inc.’s new partnership with a major fintech firm, which promises to enhance their payment platforms and expand market reach, Marqeta Inc.’s stocks have been trading up by 6.58 percent on Wednesday.

Latest Developments and Their Market Influence

  • The unveiling of Marqeta Flex, introduced at Money 2020, showcases a revolutionary buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) solution. It’s set to disrupt regular payment systems by teaming up with big names like Branch, Klarna, and Affirm.

Candlestick Chart

Live Update at 14:33:22 EST: On Wednesday, November 06, 2024 Marqeta Inc. stock [NASDAQ: MQ] is trending up by 6.58%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

  • Marqeta’s Q3 financials display robust growth in Total Processing Volume (TPV) and Gross Profit, but a GAAP net loss tempers the excitement. Operational tweaks hint at improved efficiency.

  • Shifting credit preferences come to light in Marqeta’s latest research, indicating potential opportunities for innovation and enhanced customer retention in the economic landscape.

  • Earnings anticipation: Analysts expect a strong growth trajectory in Q3, with sales figures just missing the mark but total processing volume notably ascending by 30%.

  • Regulatory scrutiny tempers optimism, leading Susquehanna to lower Marqeta’s price target amidst emerging regulation influencing Q4 forecasts.

Quick Overview: Marqeta’s Recent Performance

Marqeta, known for revolutionary payment innovations, has recently faced a turbulent financial period. In Q3 2024, their returns showed notable peaks and valleys. The standout statistic is an impressive 30% increase in their Total Processing Volume (TPV). Despite a GAAP net loss, they boasted a positive adjusted EBITDA, hinting at operational enhancements and strategies paying off. Revenue touched $128M, nearly hitting market expectations.

A look at the basics: Marqeta’s gross margin stands at 68.8%, echoing their dominance in transaction quality. At the same time, enhanced platforms have become talking points in the fintech domain—decoding the data reveals their adaptability in challenging times.

Yet, recent drops in the stock price, from a close of over $5.95 on Nov 4, 2024, to a slide around $3.64 by Nov 6, 2024, reflect market unease. Also tied to these movements is the insight from the company’s recently released State of Credit Report that highlights a growing demand for flexible credit options. Their survey points to changing consumer behaviors, like increased reliance on BNPL services, requiring Marqeta to stay agile in the evolving financial sphere.

More Breaking News

Marqeta’s extensive financial metrics shed further light on their status. Their quick ratio at 3.4 suggests comfortable liquidity levels, enabling them to meet any short-term obligations. However, the absence of debt in their capital structure is peculiar for a company with such a rapid expansion pace, especially when aiming to finance growth.

The Courted Controversies: Understanding the Impact

Transformations at Money 2020:

The introduction of Marqeta Flex is turning heads. It’s more than a BNPL entry; it’s a complete shift in consumer payment engagement, posing a challenge to established players. Partnerships with Branch, Klarna, and Affirm emphasize collective scale use, ultimately offering consumers options within their existing payment systems. The market views this as a unique proposition that taps into the rapidly expanding BNPL area. Analysts predict increased consumer engagement and transaction volumes, factors that can potentially drive Marqeta stocks higher.

Earnings Insights:

Despite the earnings season spotlight, Marqeta faced a shortfall compared to expectations. The slight miss in earnings per share (EPS) directly influenced the market reaction, pressing stocks downward. The revenue achieved—though close—did not meet consensus expectations, signaling that analysts and investors hoped for something more substantial amidst broader market scrutiny. With strong TPV growth, there’s room for optimism, but financial discipline remains a challenge for the tech company.

Macroeconomic Shifts and Credit Trends:

Marqeta’s annual State of Credit report investigates the larger macroeconomic impact. In an era marred by increasing credit card debt, it’s a tale of transformation. Their findings unravel consumer shifts towards personalized credit and innovative financial solutions, underlining the demand for diversity in payment systems. This pivot aligns alongside Marqeta developments and helps further strategize their path in the digital payments arena.

Regulatory Challenges:

The financial quarter wasn’t just about numbers, as regulatory implications from a recent scrutiny checklist have also emerged. Analysts have adjusted Marqeta’s future price targets, reflecting these looming changes. Yet, amid these fluctuations, Marqeta appears set to navigate regulatory terrain with adaptability—offering innovative reforms built on evidence-based research and consumer engagement.

Conclusion

The current narrative around Marqeta outlines a company at the cusp of substantial growth, tempered by regulatory and market pressures. The introduction of Marqeta Flex and the company’s foray into BNPL options signal a strong growth trajectory with profound consumer-centric innovation potential. Yet, financial performance strain and regulatory pressure come as a sharper reminder of the hurdles intrinsic to fintech growth.

Whether Marqeta stands as a buy, hold, or sell decision, forthcoming quarters remain critical. Stakeholders must reflect on financial metrics, industry interjections, and regulatory outcomes when contemplating this fintech protagonist’s future. As this journey continues, the question looms—will Marqeta’s momentum maintain, or will unforeseen headwinds cut the course short?

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The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

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Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”