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ASTS Drops As SpaceX Deal Reshapes Satellite Phone Race

ELLIS HOBBS•UPDATED OCT. 12, 2026, 12:33 PM ET
Reviewed by Jack Kelloggand Fact-checked by Tim Sykes

AST SpaceMobile Inc. stocks have been trading up by 5.22 percent amid heightened optimism over its satellite-to-cell connectivity breakthroughs.

Key Takeaways For ASTS Traders

  • SpaceX’s roughly $8B low‑band spectrum buy is seen by Roth Capital as a catalyst that may push Tier‑1 carriers toward ASTS as a neutral satellite partner.
  • Berenberg kept its Buy call on AST SpaceMobile even as ASTS slid about 15% intraday on SpaceX news, highlighting the strength of ASTS’s carrier‑partner model.
  • Management says roughly 1,000 MHz of U.S. low‑ and mid‑band spectrum is tunable on the AST SpaceMobile network, plus 45 MHz of in‑house L‑band, targeting peak data near 200 Mbps.
  • B. Riley cut ASTS to Neutral from Buy and slashed its target to $65 from $85, flagging tougher competition, delayed launches, and high constellation and spectrum costs.
  • A successful integration test with TELUS proved AST SpaceMobile’s direct‑to‑smartphone connectivity and aims for commercial service in Canada within about a year.

Candlestick Chart

Live Update At 12:32:42 EDT: On Monday, October 12, 2026 AST SpaceMobile Inc. stock [NASDAQ: ASTS] is trending up by 5.22%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

Quick Financial Overview

ASTS has been trading like a rollercoaster. Over the last few weeks, AST SpaceMobile shares have swung from the mid‑$60s down into the high‑$40s before bouncing back toward the low‑$50s and closing near $53.62 on 2026/10/12. That’s a steep drawdown for any ticker, and it shows how emotional this story has become.

On the daily chart, ASTS is clearly in a pullback from late‑September highs around $65. The series of lower highs and lower closes into 2026/10/09, when the stock hit intraday lows near $47.57, tells traders that momentum flipped from strong accumulation to aggressive profit‑taking and fear.

Intraday, the 5‑minute tape shows ASTS grinding in a tight band between roughly $53 and $54, with repeated rejections above $54.67. That’s textbook consolidation after a big drop, as short‑term traders battle over direction.

Fundamentally, AST SpaceMobile is still in heavy build‑out mode. Revenue of about $71M over the trailing period sits against huge negative margins and free cash flow near ‑$719M, plus an enterprise value around $18.69B. ASTS carries a rich price‑to‑sales multiple above 170 and price‑to‑book above 10, with deeply negative returns on equity and assets. For traders, that screams “high‑beta story stock” where execution and news flow drive moves more than traditional valuation metrics.

Why Traders Are Watching ASTS After The Selloff

ASTS has been hammered on headlines, but the story underneath is more nuanced. The sharp 8.5% slide to about $52.09 and then a 15.7% intraday drop to $48.02 came without any new negative company‑specific data. The hit was mainly sentiment: SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide low‑band spectrum from Grain Management for around $8B, and the market panicked that AST SpaceMobile had just been sidelined.

Roth Capital and Berenberg see it differently. Roth argues that SpaceX stepping deeper into the carrier lane actually forces Verizon, AT&T, and T‑Mobile to think hard about neutral partners. In that setup, ASTS becomes the satellite bridge that doesn’t compete with them. Berenberg reiterated its Buy rating, saying the same SpaceX move only increases the value of AST SpaceMobile’s carrier‑partner, device‑to‑device broadband model.

ASTS management added fuel to that argument. The CEO highlighted that roughly 1,000 MHz of U.S. low‑ and mid‑band spectrum is already tunable on AST SpaceMobile’s network, plus 45 MHz of its own L‑band. That spectrum flexibility is designed to support peak data rates near 200 Mbps from its large LEO satellites. For traders, that means ASTS is targeting true smartphone‑grade broadband, not just emergency backup text.

The TELUS integration test backs this up. ASTS and TELUS linked AST SpaceMobile’s space‑based network with TELUS’s terrestrial system and ran voice, text, and data directly from normal smartphones to satellites. They aim for commercial service in Canada within about a year. That’s real execution, not a slide deck.

Regulation is another key piece. On 2026/10/29, the FCC is set to discuss expanding spectrum eligible for direct‑to‑device leasing under its Supplemental Coverage from Space framework. That path favors carrier‑partnered satellite models like ASTS with AT&T and Verizon. At the same time, a separate 25 MHz auction could support terrestrial direct‑to‑device rivals, bringing some competition risk. For ASTS traders, that agenda is a must‑watch catalyst that can swing sentiment quickly.

Conclusion

ASTS is sitting right in the middle of a major tug‑of‑war. On one side, B. Riley’s downgrade to Neutral, with a target cut to $65 from $85, summed up the bear case: mounting competition, delayed launches, higher constellation and spectrum costs, and real questions about how much consumers will actually pay for space‑based coverage versus cheaper options like Viasat. Add the violent share‑price drops and you can see why short‑biased traders are circling AST SpaceMobile.

On the other side, most of the Street still leans positive. The broader analyst crowd keeps ASTS rated Overweight with an average target near $84.19, well above current trading levels. Bulls point to the TELUS test, the tunable 1,000 MHz spectrum footprint, and the potential regulatory tailwind from the FCC’s Supplemental Coverage from Space framework. They see SpaceX’s spectrum grab as a signal that carriers will need an independent partner, and AST SpaceMobile wants to be that pick‑and‑shovel name.

For active traders, ASTS is a classic high‑risk, high‑reward setup. The chart shows aggressive volatility, the fundamentals show a cash‑hungry build‑out, and the news tape swings between big catalysts and real threats. As Tim Sykes likes to say, “Volatility is your best friend and your worst enemy — it’s only an edge if you come prepared and cut losses fast.” As millionaire penny stock trader and teacher Tim Sykes, says, “You must adapt to the market; the market will not adapt to you.”. ASTS fits that description perfectly right now. This article is for educational and research purposes only, and every trader needs to do their own homework before taking a position.

This is stock news, not investment advice. Timothy Sykes News delivers real-time stock market news focused on key catalysts driving short-term price movements. Our content is tailored for active traders and investors seeking to capitalize on rapid price fluctuations, particularly in volatile sectors like penny stocks. Readers come to us for detailed coverage on earnings reports, mergers, FDA approvals, new contracts, and unusual trading volumes that can trigger significant short-term price action. Some users utilize our news to explain sudden stock movements, while others rely on it for diligent research into potential investment opportunities.

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The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

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Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”