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Why Is PANW Trending?

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Written by Timothy Sykes
Updated 2/2/2021 8 min read

Palo Alto Networks (NYSE:PANW) is a hot topic so far in 2019.

The cybersecurity company lost momentum toward the end of 2018. Matter of fact, that’s putting it lightly — PANW lost nearly a third of its value between September 13 and November 11.

PANW stock price over 6 months
PANW chart (NYSE:PANW) showing a multi-month drop in late 2018 (Source:StocksToTrade.com)

This drop was due to a few factors. But mostly because tech stocks, in general, had a rough go in this quarter. Couple that with a valuation that many traders deemed too high, and you can see why PANW’s stock suffered.

Since then, the company’s managed an impressive recovery and continuing to gain momentum. But that’s not the only reason this stock is notable.

Palo Alto made headlines in recent years for making a number of acquisitions, such as of LightCyber and RedLock. Thanks to moves like these and impressive financial growth in 2019, a lot of traders see potential here. Some expect PANW’s stock price to continue to trend up.

So let’s break it down: We have a company that’s making a recovery, gaining momentum, and there’s news around it. Can that be enough to put PANW on your trade radar?

Let’s look closer … recent news and announcements can tell us more about what we might expect from Palo Alto in 2019.

Download the key points of this post as a PDF

Why Cybersecurity Stock Is in Demand

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By Burak Kebapci/Pexels.com

Before digging into the hype, we should start by finding out why cybersecurity is a hot industry right now.

The reason is pretty simple: the world is continuously becoming more digitized. Everything from smartphones to smart refrigerators is connected to the Internet of Things (IoT).

Individuals and businesses rely on digital, internet-connected products to store and control important information. And that means our most private information is always at risk of being uncovered by hackers.

In the coming years, our lives will continue to become more digital. Individuals and businesses alike will rely on cybersecurity services to protect their sensitive information.

What’s Going on With PANW?

So why is PANW trending lately?

Palo Alto Networks popped up on many traders’ watchlists recently. That’s mostly thanks to positive price activity and an impressive Q2 earnings report.

Recent Activity

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Since the start of the year, the PANW stock price is growing fairly steadily.

Palo Alto Networks stock chart year to date performance
PANW uptrend from the beginning of 2019 (Source:StocksToTrade.com)

PANW ended 2018 with a stock price of $188.35. Since then, the price continued to climb before peaking at a price of $254.88 on February 27. Guess when that happened? That’s right, one day after the company released its Q2 earnings report.

Now, after reaching $260.03 intraday on gap up, the price dipped slightly shortly after this. In fact, it had five red days in a row after peaking. That’s what I call a “Gap and Crap.”

As traders expect good news, in this case, a solid earnings report, the stock starts to gain momentum before dipping after the news is actually announced. You don’t typically want to be around when the news is announced. Instead, buy the rumor, sell the news.

But since its slight dip at the end of February, PANW is gaining momentum again.

PANW Current Stock Price

At the time of this writing, PANW’s stock price is $237.07. That’s a slight drop from this year’s high, but a significant $48.72 year-to-date (YTD) increase.

Could PANW be a runner? High-priced stocks don’t tend to run like penny stocks — so not likely.

Financial Growth

What’s the reason for this year’s positive price trend?

PANW aims to be the leading provider of cybersecurity solutions. Ambitious goal, right?

Well, the company’s latest earnings report seems to be convincing a number of traders that the company’s on its way to achieving its goal.

You can check out PANW’s second quarter 2019 financial report here … but here are the main bullet points:

  • Q2 revenue grows 30% to $711.2 million.
  • Q2 billings grow 27% to $825.5 million.
  • Deferred revenue grows 32% to $2.5 billion.
  • PANW announces $1 billion share repurchase authorization.

These numbers show that, despite heavy competition in the cybersecurity industry, PANW can continue to make itself a more profitable company.

Endpoint Security Product Reaches New Milestone

A more recent milestone that may positively impact PANW’s price activity is news relating to one of its newest products.

One of Palo Alto’s products is Traps. From the company’s website: “Traps endpoint protection and response stops threats on endpoints and coordinates enforcement with network and cloud security to prevent successful cyberattacks.”

On March 22, the Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program (FedRAMP) gave Traps an “In Process” designation.

That’s not nothin’ — it’s actually a milestone. It indicates that the U.S. public sector has confidence in PANW’s ability to provide secure and capable security products. The “In Process” milestone means that PANW is on pace for Traps to be FedRAMP-certified.

This could be a major catalyst as federal agencies rely on the FedRAMP certification program to protect the confidentiality of their private data.

So it’s starting to add up: PANW’s YTD performance, its earnings report, and new product developments. I won’t be surprised if the stock continues its positive price trend in the coming months.

Trading Challenge

If you’re surprised by this cybersecurity stock’s rapid rise in popularity, now you hopefully better understand the reason behind it …

It wasn’t just one factor — impressive earnings reports, constant price growth, and product milestones all increased confidence in the company and the stock.

I know what you’re probably thinking. How can anyone possibly keep up with recent trends? There’s a ton of news to sort through every day. And analyzing trending stocks can eat up a serious amount of time.

I’m a self-taught trader, and now I’m a teacher. I’ve been trading for decades, and I don’t believe you need to learn the hard way. Instead, I think you can get past the learning curve, as long as you’re willing to do the work!

Ready to jump in and give trading your best shot? Join my Trading Challenge. It’s designed to guide and train traders of any experience level. My goal is to help you think for yourself as you face the markets.

If you want to trade like a pro, you have to think and act like a pro. Learn to think on your feet. Do your research even when you’re not actively trading. Develop a strategy that works for you — practice it, track it, improve it! Learn to manage your risk.

And never, never, never stop learning.

Think you have what it takes? Apply for the Trading Challenge today. If you want skills, you have to build them. But those skills can mean learning how news catalysts can impact a stock like Palo Alto and how to spot those catalysts.

How experienced are you as a trader? Share your thoughts about Palo Alto’s recent growth — what do see in this stock’s future? Leave a comment below!


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Author card Timothy Sykes picture

Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity.
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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

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Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”