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Trading Lessons

NVDA Earnings Opportunities

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Written by Timothy Sykes
Reviewed by Jack Kellogg Fact-checked by Ben Sturgill
Updated 8/28/2024 4 min read

By the time you read this, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) will have announced its earnings data for the most recent fiscal quarter of 2024.

I’m writing this on Wednesday, August 28, before the announcement comes out.

This is an important opportunity for traders to understand the true opportunities behind large earnings announcements like this.

On Wednesday, before the data went public, nobody knew how the price would react.

See the headlines below:

Here’s a multi-day chart of NVDA before Wednesday afternoon’s announcement for reference:

NVDA chart multi-month, 1-day candles Source: StocksToTrade

I’m not holding shares of NVDA before the announcement!

Nobody knows how the price will react to earnings … It would be foolish to try and predict something like that.

Instead, I wait for the earnings to come out, and then I trade the resulting volatility.

Bullish or bearish, my framework offers trade patterns for both outcomes.

But it’s essential that we approach these plays correctly …

Thursday’s NVDA Volatility

First of all … I probably won’t trade NVDA.

The share price is too high for my comfort zone. I trade lower priced stocks so that I can load up on shares and ride the percent gain.

It’s the same small-account strategy that all my students use.

Today, I’m more focused on a stock like Serve Robotics Inc. (NASDAQ: SERV). It’s a former runner that started to move after we learned of NVDA’s stake in the company.

And right now prices are consolidating around key support at $10.

Take a look at the chart below, every candle represents one trading day:

SERV chart multi-month, 1-day candles Source: StocksToTrade

A bullish reaction from NVDA could cause a rally in SERV stock today and tomorrow.

And SERV isn’t the only AI stock capable of spiking this week …

These are some of the hottest AI penny stocks on my watchlist.

How To Trade These Runners

I already mentioned that my framework has viable trade patterns for bearish price action AND bullish price action.

And it does NOT require a trader to build short positions.

I actually discourage my students from going short in the beginning. It’s a more dangerous strategy, the risks are greater.

This is the whole framework that my students and I use to trade.

But for new traders, it’s easy to get confused in this market … 

  • Which pattern do I use?
  • What should my trade plan look like?
  • How much should I risk?
  • Which stock should I be trading and when?

Right now, my newest students are using AI to build smart entries on the hottest stocks.

Enter your favorite ticker and my AI trading system will give you a trade plan as if you asked me directly.

New traders don’t need to wander around in the dark anymore. AI can shine a light on the hottest trading opportunities in the market!

Cheers.

 

*Past performance does not indicate future results


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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”