10 Hot Stocks And Why It Might Be Fun To Short Sell Them

VM
After missing out on perfect 10%+ afternoon fades both Wednesday and yesterday (dan you publishing business model!), I shorted 1,000 shares at $4.01 into the market close yesterday…while I’d have preferred to short into some kind of bounce—as it might bounce a bit early today—this thing had too many things going for it: first down day, filling the gap perfectly, after a multi-day runup smack into resistance, a strong long-term downtrend, a history of rolling over after spikes, a failing business, upcoming earnings (where they’ll probly fail some more, as is their tendency)…there are buyout rumors so it’s not an ideal play, but I’ve learned to trust chart patterns much more than humans. It’s really gotta crack $4—if it does, stop losses and the chart pattern should bring it down to $3.6-$3.75 eassssy…not as much downside potential as I like here though and given the tough environment lately, I’ll play this one somewhat safe

MESA
Nice gradual intraday and multi-day uptrending, TheLion was all over this and that’s why they’re on TIMfavs (many more websites coming soon…)

JRJC
It’s baaaaaack, this Chinese spiker is trying to do what it does best, kinda tough to do into such a multi-month downtrend, but it actually helps too cuz lots of shorts are getting squeeeeeezed. This is now the 7th big spike where the last 6 proved to be great shorts—no pattern works the same each time, they evolve baby, as shorts are learning  

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ANALysts & Venture Capitalists Know S#@! About How SmallCap Stocks Trade

While I respect Andy Kessler for making a ton of $ back during the bubble and writing two superb books–Wall Street Meat and Running Money, this piece of s$#@ interview he gave on smallcaps really makes me mad. Not only does he believe it a foregone conclusion that investors should look for companies with emerging technologies, but he also refuses to name any names or give any kind of timeframe whatsoever for his theory.

To Andy and all other venture capitalists, do your thing with big companies, but don’t talk about smallcaps and microcaps—these companies ALL have cool technologies, but this isn’t 1999, most of these companies are gonna fail and their grim reality is reflected in their stock prices. While you have good intentions, interviews like this are what gets people investing / believing in these POS companies, inevitably losing $ and thinking this niche is random, which, if you focus on the proper variables—chart, volume, manipulation, message board hype etc—is clearly not the case. Dangerous dangerous dangerous, welcome to why media outlets are sooooo bad with smallcaps and microcaps–it’s a different world down here in the gutter, ain’t no place for WASPs!

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When Timmayyy Is Dead Right: Manipulated Stocks Go Boom!

For the 3 most recently manipulated microcraps—CNOA (pumped by a CNBC “reporter” who mistook paid-for stock promotion for credible research, probly the result of majoring in theatre studies in college (seriously)), EDEN (agriculture product pumped by a TheStreet.com “journalist” who forgot to read the quarterly report mentioning they sold off that division!) and TIGR (I don’t wanna know the evil lurking behind that pump, possibly some SEC counter-intelligence subdivision trying to draw out fellow manipulators) I have been dead on. These are opportunities from which you can profit because I’m not talking about variables that indirectly affect stock prices (ie earnings, the economy)—no, these catalysts have a direct impact on the supply/demand of shares and consequently the stock price.

Since my expose when it was at $1.80ish, CNOA has dropped 30% in a few days—longs, don’t blame me or say “I don’t get it, it had all the trends going in its favor, I guess penny stocks really are just like gambling?!?!” Hello no, this kind of price action is the precise opposite of random, it’s motherf$#@en PennyStocking—learn to play the game or suffer the consequences!

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Hot Stocks: A Bunch Of Mediocre Wannabes aka Stocks Not Gone Wild

No ideal trade setups, just getting bored by a bunch of mediocre chicks

(GOOG) Great earnings, gotta respect the after-hours stock gains, optimistic people looking for an excuse…but be careful–$200 million in one-time currency gains—without it, wouldn’t be such a blowout…too pricey a stock to matter to TIM, but just be a little weary here.

(FEED) Just cuz I said this is a typical smallcap raising capital at inflated prices, doesn’t mean those inflated prices will deflate anytime soon. Classic finance idiots gotta learn to read—what are you guys a bunch of typically coked out Wall Street ANALysts ?—I also explained that whoever bought the $10 million at $16 now has a huuuuge incentive to pump the stock. It’s called a balanced blog post, deal with it suckas!

(MMTIF) Still watching this TRUE pump and dump, again doesn’t mean I’m gonna short it—pump and dumps can last much longer than anyone expects, as (MXFD) shorts have learned the hard way  

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On CNOA, CNBC Aids And Abets Penny Stock Promoters

Let me start by saying I have no problem whatsoever with penny stock promotion—these tiny / failing / fraudulent companies need all the exposure / hype they can get or else they’ll never raise any capital and fail / be exposed as the frauds that they are soon rather than later. But I do take offense when entertainment outlets like CNBC try to pass themselves off as credible researchers. As I’ve posted HERE and HERE, their bumbling has hurt too many investors and they’ve helped make people afraid of penny stocks—which I cannot permit.

Now, one of their wannabe journalists / entertainers, Sri Jegarajah, has written the single most naïve penny stock article I’ve ever read, “Wild About Rice” in which Sri mistakes paid-for stock promotion for credible research forcing me to explain the rules of the game to all the poor schmucks who mistakenly view CNBC as a credible source.

Besides quoting CNOA’s CEO (we all know how useless that is, what’s he gonna admit the company’s a pump and dump scheme?), and a Seeking Alpha article—whose writers are no more qualified than bums begging for change on the street, Sri proudly quotes Source Advisors, forgetting (not realizing?) to mention they’ve been paid $25,000 “by a third party” (pump and dumper, cough, cough) to publish their BS report. And, as if to repent for his sins, Sri closes out the article quoting Patrick Murphy of Murphy Analytics who was only paid $1,000 for his efforts (scroll down to the bottom and be better than Sri, aka read the disclaimer).  

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Why Traders Should Ignore Corporate Mergers And The Financial Media Circus

Thanks to this high profile acquisition news of Blockbuster and Circuit City, the financial media circus is working overtime today. CNBC, Fox Biz, Reuters, WSJ, WWE, Marketwatch, AP, Minyanville, TheStreet.com, Portfolio, Bizjournals, Techticker, Motley Fool, SmartMoney.com, Barrons, Businessweek, RealMoney, Forbes, FT, CNNMoney, Briefing.com and of course the Richmond Times-Dispatch have each written articles about it. No joke, seriously, check out the Yahoo! Finance news list—it’s reminiscent of my media logo collage.

Within hours, we now have quotes from higher and lower-ups from both companies, competitors of both companies, industry observers, industry non-observers, economists, ANALysts , marketers, talking heads, journalists—everybody’s giving their useless opinion as to what this news means for consumers, competitors, investors, traders, the industry, other industries, society and the universe. Not to even mention all message board and blog buzz from those too unskilled to even gain entrance to the media circus (true gutter trash / waste of webspace)

Here’s my take:  

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LongorShort Capital Earns Nickname: Pretentious Prick Capital, aka Matt Damon In School Ties

I try to give the LongorShort Capital (LOSC), aka Pretentious Prick Capital (PP Capital) some exposure (seemingly much needed) and instead the dude rips on me?!?! Doesn’t understand why I’m still relevant (uhhh maybe cuz I detail all my mistakes—something nobody else in finance does and I’m willing to answer any AND all questions just as I post 40%+ returns in 5 months?!?!)

What a pompous ass…so typical…(unsurprisingly, this rich daddy’s boy also guest writes for that other pretentious finance rag Traitor Monthly) Welcome to why I want nothing to do with the joke that is the financial community…this guy is an embarrassment to both finance and blogging—basically whatever he touches he dishonors—no doubt he went to an Ivy League School as they’re breeding grounds for these kinds of pretentious pricks…like Matt Damon’s character in School Ties

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Short Selling Stocks: Plays Galore Limited By Absurd Pattern Day Trading Rule aka SEC Reign Of Terror

As I posted early this morning, there were lots of potential shorts today, but I had to be extra-choosy due to the SEC’s reign of terror over accounts under $25k (explanation down below).

Awoke early and reserves shares of my favs—placing my sell limit orders waaay high, intent on lowering them if and when any became good plays:

-300 ASTI @16.99 LMT
-300 GU @16.99 LMT
-1000 BPAX @5.99 LMT
-1000 REED @4.99 LMT
-1000 QBIK @3.99 LMT

Didn’t even need to reserve any COT, it was listed as easy to borrow. But my top pick was REED, and I was hoping—somewhat naively—to get a morning spike to short into…no such luck. It went down quickly, bounced, down again, blah whatever, volume for the day was 60k, spread between bid and ask was 20-40 cents, no thanks. Next!

BPAX—no morning spike there either—disappointing. Had the chance to short my 1,000 shares into a quickly disappearing block at $4.39, but I hate shorting morning droppers, too high risk of reversal, so I hesitated and it passed me by, on its way to $4.10-ish. Missed out on $200 profit, but if it’d held $4.39, it could’ve easily spiked, risk of $200-$400 loss, not a good risk-reward. As evidenced by its surprising afternoon comeback all the way to unchanged—this is not a typical hype play. Next!  

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Sykes’ Saturday Seven: March 22nd, 2008 Edition

Techcrunch might be right about Inspectd.com being fun and addicting, but it sets a very very very very very very very bad example. The problem lay in the fact that pattern recognition is only part of the game, you also have to understand the variables that align to CREATE those patterns. Comparing a 100% one-week stock price jump based on a positive earnings report—meaningful, further strength likely—is very very very very very very very different from the same kind of jump based on two ANALyst upgrades and a newsletter mention—hype, reversal probable. Exemplified by the pic below:

Check out THIS sweet 20 minute podcast talking to some other traders

Also check out THIS interview I did, chastising those pathetic people who can’t pay their debts

Be sure to visit some TIMlinks, I visit the top 5 regularly cuz they’re actually good

Have you seen the new JPMorgan/Bear logo? IT ROCKS! (gratzie Lindzon)  

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