Archive for the ‘Good Trades’ Category
Shorting Into Penny Stock Manipulation Works Wonders But The SEC Still Owes Me $500
Going into today, as I posted pre-market, I thoroughly expected to short LGDI because it had all the right elements—junky company, big run-up, toxic SEC filings and new today no less than 12 paid-for stock promotion pieces! (somebody’s paying biiiig $ for those)
So, I reserved 1,000 shares to short for the day. Been working myself dizzy lately so I looked forward to taking an early morning nap, but when this thing shot up from $4 to $4.75 before 9:45am—or a $140 million increase n top of its already thoroughly ridiculous $700 million marketcap—I couldn’t help but want to bet against it, excitably shorting 1,000 shares just off its highs at $4.62.
I know, I know, in my PennyStocking DVD, I preach again and again how important it is to wait until the afternoon to fade these suckers, but I am a trading addict so there’s really little hope for me. The good news is I’m an experienced addict so I never overdose—as undisciplined as this short was, it was a small position. Just as the stock jumped to $5 and I felt sick to my stomach for blowing yet another trade, I didn’t panic, instead reserving another 1,000 shares to short to get my average price up.
Since the chart’s already gone Supernova, I knew—yes I knew—the end, or at least a pause / slight reversal, would develop either today or tomorrow. That’s the beautiful thing about these plays—you don’t have to be perfect to profit, far from it, you just gotta get close and understand what’s goin’ on—and sure enough within an hour, after the volume faded big-time (meaning the hype fro the paid-for news releases had worn off) and it double–topped at $5, the tank was on so I added 500 shares—playing it conservatively—at $4.78 to get my average cost up to $4.67.
If At First You Short A Pump And Dump And Succeed, Try, Try Again!
As I’ve posted HERE and HERE, EDEN was a great pump due to a 100% spike caused by a fluffy inaccurate article written by a major media outlet—my former employer—for a bit—TheStreet.com (they later corrected it, but the damage was already done). The first time I shorted at $2.55, impatiently/conservatively covering at $2.35 for a decent $180 profit. But given its tiny tiny tiny $6 million marketcap and annoying illiquidity, I don’t regret covering quickly…that much…cuz as I’ve shown on fellow microcap pump and dumpers PSTI, REED and SHZ, these suckers remain good shorts for many days.
So, when I re-shorted EDEN mid-day yesterday on a slight low volume bounce up from $2 to $2.20, I had every confidence in the world we’d see $2 again and then the question would be if there were stop losses there—as often happens at big fat round numbers. Despite some ever surprisingly determined buyers and a solidly bearish close at $2.04—caused by a 49,000 share sell order—I was even more confident of a big drop today.
When Timmayyy Is Dead Right: Manipulated Stocks Go Boom!
For the 3 most recently manipulated microcraps—CNOA (pumped by a CNBC “reporter” who mistook paid-for stock promotion for credible research, probly the result of majoring in theatre studies in college (seriously)), EDEN (agriculture product pumped by a TheStreet.com “journalist” who forgot to read the quarterly report mentioning they sold off that division!) and TIGR (I don’t wanna know the evil lurking behind that pump, possibly some SEC counter-intelligence subdivision trying to draw out fellow manipulators) I have been dead on. These are opportunities from which you can profit because I’m not talking about variables that indirectly affect stock prices (ie earnings, the economy)—no, these catalysts have a direct impact on the supply/demand of shares and consequently the stock price.
Since my expose when it was at $1.80ish, CNOA has dropped 30% in a few days—longs, don’t blame me or say “I don’t get it, it had all the trends going in its favor, I guess penny stocks really are just like gambling?!?!” Hello no, this kind of price action is the precise opposite of random, it’s motherf$#@en PennyStocking—learn to play the game or suffer the consequences!
How To Short Sell A Media-Sponsored Pump & Dump
I went into today thinking I wouldn’t trade cuz they were no ideal setups. But when $23,000-in-revenue-joke-of-a-company-TheStreet.com-pump-and-dump (EDEN) became a big 2-day runner, my market inefficiency sense kicked in and I immediately reserved 1,000 shares to short, just in case it might show signs of reversal. By 11am, it was up 40% on the day in the $2.60 range, and while there were some big buy blocks just below at $2.55 and $2.50, the sellers were persistent. This is what I call “a wall of sellers” and when stocks are up big already on little to no news with fading volume, this wall signals the end of any runup, at least usually.
Sure, sometimes the wall collapses and the stock surges, but since TheStreet.com’s article was factually inaccurate and it’d already proven three times over the past 2 days it couldn’t break $2.75, I figured it’d be better to be early than late as I’d just try to double up if it went higher.
When some sellers came in to try to take out the big 10k buy block at $2.55, I could stand aside no longer, shorting into that block and posting my findings HERE. Sometimes when a big buy block gets taken out, it signals an immediate panic, but even with my rather harsh article, that didn’t happen here. For an hour or so, it went slightly higher to $2.65, but I held, convinced my argument was sound. 3 hours later, the stock was only down to $2.30ish and buyers held strong—after all, my blog doesn’t have anywhere near the traction of TheStreet.com, so the truth doesn’t really matter…yet.
First Quarter 2008 Review: Earn 21% Every 3 Months And You’ll Live A Happy Life
Coming off my best week since I started TIM 5+ months ago ($900-ish profits), it’s good to review past successes and mistakes. Without further ado, I give you the first quarter of 2008 in a nutshell, where TIM used small account size–finishing at $17,388–combined with PennyStocking to thoroughly dominate the performance of ALL major indexes, even while making tons of mistakes. Follow along and learn to do the same…already 5% higher in April and I’m just getting warmed up…
Successes:
How I Made An 8% Return Before Lunch
How I Made 25% Just By Holding A Distinct Pattern Overnight
How I Made 8% In One Morning, Leaving 40%+ On The Table One Day Later
Hard To Borrow Stocks: Short Sell What You Can, Only When Key Prices Are Breached
All of a sudden there’s a ton of crap stocks looking perfect for PennyStocking: (AGEN), (COT), (PSTI), (GBRC.PK), (CNOA.OB) and (NCEN.OB). Why then did I choose only to short PSTI…because it was the only one with borrowable shares!
As I posted towards the end of THIS post, PSTI’s pattern is the EXACT chart pattern that made me a millionaire by age 22 and it’s why TIM is up now 46% since November 2007. Can’t short more than 10,000-30,000 shares (this time around at least, liquidity willing you can sometimes get up to 100,000 shares), but ideal for smaller traders/investors in the $2k-$100k account size.
How To Predict 10% Daily Price Moves With Relative Ease: PennyStocking!
Some will argue that my top 3 weekend stocks to watch moving 10%+ in the direction I thought they would proves nothing. After all, maybe my blog is simply popular enough to help these patterns become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But when you throw in a decade of me making millions of dollars off these EXACT kinds of chart patterns, it’s hard not to believe that they are PREDICTABLE! Because they are shining examples of the plays on which my instructional DVD PennyStocking focuses. So just get it so I don’t have to explain/mention as often! That might’ve been rude…whatever, be cheap, sign up to my RSS feed and try to piece everything together.
Enough blabbing, let’s talk shop:
Top Weekend Pick: Short (SYNM)—I’d hope to short into another full day of gains, but the weak open (double top at $1.25ish) coupled with sad volume meant it was gonna tank, either hard or soft, no way of knowing…so when it went negative on the day, taking out big block buys at $1.21 and $1.20 and within seconds it dropped to $1.15, I thought’d I missed it…luckily the optimists bounced it back to $1.20 and I shorted 3,000 shares there around 10am…barely getting all my shares before it fell back to $1.16 x $1.17
Then the real question: could it take out now 2-day support at $1.15…didn’t look good for an hour or so…lots of big buys…but there wasn’t any bouncing higher so I held—not content to make 3-4 cents/share. Right before 11am, $1.15 fell hard, stop losses took out $1.12, then $1.10, then $1.07!!!! Gotta love buying into those automated sell orders, it’s like surfing a wave, covered at $1.07, $370 gain, 11% on my money inside an hour…rest of the day irrelevant, not up enough—nor could I risk my precious day trades—to bet for a fall under $1 although odds are slightly for it. Next!
How To Make 8% Returns Before Lunch
As I noted on Thursday, REED is my ideal kind of play—morning spikes, then sideways action, fades or plunges. No different from other recent microcrap runners SHZ (best to short on the 3rd, 4th and 5th days), DARA (3rd-4th days) and VION (3rd-4th days).
On Friday, I really nailed it—expecting a morning short squeeze 
(due to Thursday inability to fade/late strength)…awoke early to reserve shares, got all I asked for, 1,000 shares…liked the opening strength to the $4.75 range, but wanted more…damn big block sellers prevented the path to $5 (at which there’s big-time resistance)…volume wasn’t very impressive, so when a 3,000 share buy order bid at $4.75 (sellers were at $4.85, 87, 90, 93, 95, 99), I shorted into it…it got taken out quickly…encouraging…within minutes sellers came down and put pressure on the bidders around $4.50-$4.60.
Extremely bearish for a microcrap momo play to fail to truly spike on the 3rd day of a runup, longs get scared, rightfully so…situations like these, I should stay short as long as possible, but considering strength from the day before, the illiquidity and large price spread…oh yeah and a lunch meeting…I just want to take profits—preferably more than the $65 I made on Thursday (screwing up an easy $300ish gain).
How To Bake A 25% Overnight Profit Cake And Eat It Too
Take one part failing company (VION), one part 100%+ surge within a few days ($1.25 to $2.50 in 2 days), add in a bushel of bitter shareholders (stock’s down from $28 in 3 years, ouch!), apply an overnight short position and presto…your 25% gain should be ready within 1-2 days…just keep checking in to make sure it doesn’t burn!
VION shows you why it’s good be an overnight short of a failing company—because if there’s overnight news, odds are it’s gonna be bad news. And the news was another delisting warning from the Nasdaq, a mere month after they did a 1-10 reverse split to stay listed! Out of all the companies I’ve ever shorted, this is one of the worst, losing $34 mil/quarter, $50,000 in revenues, $61mil in cash left and $54mil in debt…a homeless guy could do a better job running this POS! (cardboard facilities to cut down on costs)
The stock opened lower on pathetic volume, big buyers below, forget that…I covered at $2.15-ish for a nice $274 gain, after commissions. Earn 12% on your money literally overnight? Yes, please! Yah, I know, I was trying to bake a 25% profit cake, but I just couldn’t wait, I was too hungry…story of my life…coulda woulda shoulda held all day…big buyers got taken out easily…but enjoying undercooked profits is my specialty…look at the multi-day chart, it’s THE SAME as previous successful trades/calls: SHZ, DARA and about a hundred others which have made me into a millionaire,
Hey, I May Be Stupid, But I’ve Got A Great Strategy, aka Anyone Can Do This!
TIM $16,006, Up $318, Bad Entry, Pathetic Exit, Decent Profit, Welcome To My Life
How can anyone want to buy a crap stock—with thousands of bitter shareholders who bought in at much higher prices now looking to sell on any bounce—that’s tripled over the past 2 days without any news and now has fading volume? OK, some people will—maybe they “know something”—but the odds are definitely against them. There’s simply too much overhead resistance, and that usually crushes the price within days. Kinda like a midget trying to hold up a basketball player for very long:
As I’ve posted for the past two days here and here (scroll down to the bottom of both posts) Dara Biosciences (DARA) exemplified this tired midget pattern.
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May 16, 2008My whole KYUS saga...still a solid profit of $350 today, the only time I shoulda been playing this stock
May 16, 200810 stocks to watch today
PDO already up $1.25, sux I'll be away all morning workin' on TIMtv, got 500 shares reserved to short if need be this afternoon
Also reserved 3,000 FORC and KYUS for potential shorts
May 15, 2008Yup, by next Monday, everything's gonna be real working-like!
May 15, 2008PDO, up $4+ today, will teach you not to randomly short strong penny stocks, get in, get out then run...cuz sometimes they squeeze stubborn shorts to death!
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