Blog Archives:

Formal Evidence Thousands Of Wall Street Analysts Altered Their Reports aka Wall St. Needs A Google Latitude

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Thu 5th of Feb, 2009 08:35:36 AM

You know I’m no fan of ANALysts–they’re only right about 30% of the time (oh I forgot past performance is not indicative of future returns LOL my bad!), but this research paper found by AMP (good job you investigative journalist, good good good!) is truly astounding stuff…
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How Fool.com Writer/All-Around Fool Anders Bylund Screwed Up Bigtime on MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Sat 20th of Sep, 2008 07:14:14 AM

I really don’t mean to make more “friends” in finance, but I just can’t help myself.
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Why Buying KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC) Here Is Laughable

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Tue 9th of Sep, 2008 01:32:37 PM

I’ll admit it, no matter how much I know they’re pretty useless, sometime I get tempted to click the headlines. No matter that I know the vast majority of financial journalists/wannabe ANALysts are no better at giving financial advice than a bum on a street corner, I still click.

So I shouldn’t have been surprised to see Morningstar stock ANALyst Jeff Viksjo recommend buying KLAC in his “This Tech Titan Is Poised to Gain 20%-Plus” joke of an article (click HERE to see article).

I’m not even gonna waste my time picking apart his reasons–coincidentally which are all fundamental-based….the 5-year chart debunks his thesis far better than I ever could:
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Why ANALysts Make Me Sick To My Stomach

Posted by timothysykes on Mon 1st of Sep, 2008 09:36:21 PM

A few weekends back, I read these 2 Marketwatch articles that came out within hours of each other and couldn’t help but laugh. “Pieces might be in place for dollar to sustain gains” says this:
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Why ANALysts Are Useless For Individual Investors: Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) & Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Posted by timothysykes on Sat 23rd of Aug, 2008 06:00:50 PM

I rag on ANALysts quite a bit, probly cuz their track records uniformly suck and yet they still get paid some decently to suck. More importantly, many people actually listen to these people who suck (Is that why they’re called suckers?)

Check out this example of typical shoddy ANALyst work:
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15 Stocks In Play But Most Of Them Are Useless For Trading

Posted by timothysykes on Thu 29th of May, 2008 08:51:40 AM

Northern Technologies International Corp (NTI) I successfully scalped this one yesterday for about $400, but its strength shows these short picks can and should also be played from the long side…detailed post coming…but I look to short again, but only if it’s a worthy pattern

MAXLIFE FUND CORP (MXFD) I nailed this one breakout in yesterday’s pre-market post even though I said squeeze to $30 and only was up $5+ to $27ish…my bad…squirm shorties, squirm, especially Goode, that’s what you get for spamming my site and not putting me on your blogroll sucka

CKX Lands Inc (CKX) is another low marketcap pick by Lionmaster along with higher marketcap play IndyMac Bancorp, Inc. (IMB). I’ll probly look to short CKX either today or tomorrow, again, be careful of short squeezes.

Security With Advanced Technology Inc. (SWAT) is only a $6 million company, don’t short $6 million companies. Wait for it to go up more. End of story.
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10 Hot Stocks And Why It Might Be Fun To Short Sell Them

Posted by timothysykes on Fri 2nd of May, 2008 09:10:33 AM

VM
After missing out on perfect 10%+ afternoon fades both Wednesday and yesterday (dan you publishing business model!), I shorted 1,000 shares at $4.01 into the market close yesterday…while I’d have preferred to short into some kind of bounce—as it might bounce a bit early today—this thing had too many things going for it: first down day, filling the gap perfectly, after a multi-day runup smack into resistance, a strong long-term downtrend, a history of rolling over after spikes, a failing business, upcoming earnings (where they’ll probly fail some more, as is their tendency)…there are buyout rumors so it’s not an ideal play, but I’ve learned to trust chart patterns much more than humans. It’s really gotta crack $4—if it does, stop losses and the chart pattern should bring it down to $3.6-$3.75 eassssy…not as much downside potential as I like here though and given the tough environment lately, I’ll play this one somewhat safe

MESA
Nice gradual intraday and multi-day uptrending, TheLion was all over this and that’s why they’re on TIMfavs (many more websites coming soon…)

JRJC
It’s baaaaaack, this Chinese spiker is trying to do what it does best, kinda tough to do into such a multi-month downtrend, but it actually helps too cuz lots of shorts are getting squeeeeeezed. This is now the 7th big spike where the last 6 proved to be great shorts—no pattern works the same each time, they evolve baby, as shorts are learning
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I’m Travelling But Who Cares, Here Are Some Hot Penny Stocks

Posted by timothysykes on Mon 28th of Apr, 2008 06:12:40 AM

Gonna be traveling all day to my U of M speech so considering how good some of these plays are looking, I’m gonna miss out and inevitably get some emails sayin’ I’m a failed trader, but that’s a small price to pay to get the expected 150+ students to think cynically about the financial industry freakshow! Here’s the microcrap landscape…cheers:

PDO just keeps it goin, showing why THIS trade was actually pretty damn good, at least for a short seller—as I preach in PennyStocking, shorting, while ultimately correct considering how shady these companies are, is much tougher, I really want you guys to learn to play these from the long side (something which I could never really master)…as for when to short, don’t stand in it’s way, this is a full fledged Supernova! Just sit back and let all the early shorts kick, scream and ultimately panic cover—that’s when I’ll start looking’ to enter

HDY is another sketchy oil and gas play that puts out exaggerated PRs, spikes and then does nothing…last 7 spikes have all been good short opportunities, their PR firm is Investor Awareness Inc whose business—judging by their other clients—is to take a few thousand dollars/month and do little to nothing offering up excuses like “it’s tough to get any upside in a market like this” and “no microcraps are doing well right now”. Too bad HDY doesn’t hire somebody scummier/more unethical so this stock can actually pumped like it should be!
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ANALysts & Venture Capitalists Know S#@! About How SmallCap Stocks Trade

Posted by timothysykes on Tue 22nd of Apr, 2008 11:44:12 AM

While I respect Andy Kessler for making a ton of $ back during the bubble and writing two superb books–Wall Street Meat and Running Money, this piece of s$#@ interview he gave on smallcaps really makes me mad. Not only does he believe it a foregone conclusion that investors should look for companies with emerging technologies, but he also refuses to name any names or give any kind of timeframe whatsoever for his theory.

To Andy and all other venture capitalists, do your thing with big companies, but don’t talk about smallcaps and microcaps—these companies ALL have cool technologies, but this isn’t 1999, most of these companies are gonna fail and their grim reality is reflected in their stock prices. While you have good intentions, interviews like this are what gets people investing / believing in these POS companies, inevitably losing $ and thinking this niche is random, which, if you focus on the proper variables—chart, volume, manipulation, message board hype etc—is clearly not the case. Dangerous dangerous dangerous, welcome to why media outlets are sooooo bad with smallcaps and microcaps–it’s a different world down here in the gutter, ain’t no place for WASPs!

When Timmayyy Is Dead Right: Manipulated Stocks Go Boom!

Posted by timothysykes on Mon 21st of Apr, 2008 07:20:34 PM

For the 3 most recently manipulated microcraps—CNOA (pumped by a CNBC “reporter” who mistook paid-for stock promotion for credible research, probly the result of majoring in theatre studies in college (seriously)), EDEN (agriculture product pumped by a TheStreet.com “journalist” who forgot to read the quarterly report mentioning they sold off that division!) and TIGR (I don’t wanna know the evil lurking behind that pump, possibly some SEC counter-intelligence subdivision trying to draw out fellow manipulators) I have been dead on. These are opportunities from which you can profit because I’m not talking about variables that indirectly affect stock prices (ie earnings, the economy)—no, these catalysts have a direct impact on the supply/demand of shares and consequently the stock price.

Since my expose when it was at $1.80ish, CNOA has dropped 30% in a few days—longs, don’t blame me or say “I don’t get it, it had all the trends going in its favor, I guess Penny Stocks really are just like gambling?!?!” Hello no, this kind of price action is the precise opposite of random, it’s motherf$#@en PennyStocking—learn to play the game or suffer the consequences!

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Why I Just Shorted Eden Bioscience Corp (EDEN): TheStreet.com’s Factually Inaccurate Pump And Dump!

Posted by timothysykes on Fri 18th of Apr, 2008 12:36:17 PM

As I mentioned in this post, this near 100% runup is entirely due to THIS laughable Thestreet.com article mentioning this failure of a company as a “below-the-radar company that produces Messenger, a highly effective and revolutionary agricultural product.”

I could easily rip the company apart for its $23,000 in revenue in their latest quarter down from $189,000 just a few quarters ago—wow, their product must be really great! Even funnier is their yearly results—revenue of $350k vs. $4 million a few years back. Or before this miraculous article, EDEN was a $3 million company that was forced to do a 1-3 reverse split just two months ago in order to stay listed on the Nasdaq

But I shorted 1,000 shares at $2.55–that’s all I could find, trust me, I wish I could borrow 50k–because I prefer to go to the heart of the matter, the fact that EDEN SOLD OFF THIS “REVOLUTIONARY” TECHNOLOGY AS IS DETAILED IN THEIR ANNUAL REPORT!

From that beautiful annual report, filed on March 28, 2008:

“On February 28, 2007, under the terms of the Asset Purchase Agreement, we sold our Harpin Protein Technology to PHC for $1,396,824 in cash, net of transaction costs incurred after January 1, 2007 totaling $103,176, a promissory note in the principal amount of $700,751 payable on December 31, 2007 and the assumption by PHC of certain of the liabilities relating to or arising out of our Harpin Protein Technology…”

That’s right, EDEN isn’t even in the home and garden business anymore, they’re just a licensee! Gotta quote some more of this fine work of literature
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Hot Stocks: A Bunch Of Mediocre Wannabes aka Stocks Not Gone Wild

Posted by timothysykes on Fri 18th of Apr, 2008 04:32:13 AM

No ideal trade setups, just getting bored by a bunch of mediocre chicks

(GOOG) Great earnings, gotta respect the after-hours stock gains, optimistic people looking for an excuse…but be careful–$200 million in one-time currency gains—without it, wouldn’t be such a blowout…too pricey a stock to matter to TIM, but just be a little weary here.

(FEED) Just cuz I said this is a typical smallcap raising capital at inflated prices, doesn’t mean those inflated prices will deflate anytime soon. Classic finance idiots gotta learn to read—what are you guys a bunch of typically coked out Wall Street ANALysts?—I also explained that whoever bought the $10 million at $16 now has a huuuuge incentive to pump the stock. It’s called a balanced blog post, deal with it suckas!

(MMTIF) Still watching this TRUE pump and dump, again doesn’t mean I’m gonna short it—pump and dumps can last much longer than anyone expects, as (MXFD) shorts have learned the hard way
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On CNOA, CNBC Aids And Abets Penny Stock Promoters

Posted by timothysykes on Mon 14th of Apr, 2008 08:14:28 PM

Let me start by saying I have no problem whatsoever with penny stock promotion—these tiny / failing / fraudulent companies need all the exposure / hype they can get or else they’ll never raise any capital and fail / be exposed as the frauds that they are soon rather than later. But I do take offense when entertainment outlets like CNBC try to pass themselves off as credible researchers. As I’ve posted HERE and HERE, their bumbling has hurt too many investors and they’ve helped make people afraid of Penny Stocks—which I cannot permit.

Now, one of their wannabe journalists / entertainers, Sri Jegarajah, has written the single most naïve penny stock article I’ve ever read, “Wild About Rice” in which Sri mistakes paid-for stock promotion for credible research forcing me to explain the rules of the game to all the poor schmucks who mistakenly view CNBC as a credible source.

Besides quoting CNOA’s CEO (we all know how useless that is, what’s he gonna admit the company’s a pump and dump scheme?), and a Seeking Alpha article—whose writers are no more qualified than bums begging for change on the street, Sri proudly quotes Source Advisors, forgetting (not realizing?) to mention they’ve been paid $25,000 “by a third party” (pump and dumper, cough, cough) to publish their BS report. And, as if to repent for his sins, Sri closes out the article quoting Patrick Murphy of Murphy Analytics who was only paid $1,000 for his efforts (scroll down to the bottom and be better than Sri, aka read the disclaimer).
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Why Traders Should Ignore Corporate Mergers And The Financial Media Circus

Posted by timothysykes on Mon 14th of Apr, 2008 03:13:59 PM

Thanks to this high profile acquisition news of Blockbuster and Circuit City, the financial media circus is working overtime today. CNBC, Fox Biz, Reuters, WSJ, WWE, Marketwatch, AP, Minyanville, TheStreet.com, Portfolio, Bizjournals, Techticker, Motley Fool, SmartMoney.com, Barrons, Businessweek, RealMoney, Forbes, FT, CNNMoney, Briefing.com and of course the Richmond Times-Dispatch have each written articles about it. No joke, seriously, check out the Yahoo! Finance news list—it’s reminiscent of my media logo collage.

Within hours, we now have quotes from higher and lower-ups from both companies, competitors of both companies, industry observers, industry non-observers, economists, ANALysts, marketers, talking heads, journalists—everybody’s giving their useless opinion as to what this news means for consumers, competitors, investors, traders, the industry, other industries, society and the universe. Not to even mention all message board and blog buzz from those too unskilled to even gain entrance to the media circus (true gutter trash / waste of webspace)

Here’s my take:
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8 Pumped Up Stocks To Watch For The Upcoming Week

Posted by timothysykes on Sun 13th of Apr, 2008 05:27:25 PM

(FEED) Strong volume breakout, most likely due to the after-hours Forbes article—you don’t think somebody leaked that, of course they did! This industry is far more corrupt than you could ever imagine, don’t bother digging for the truth, just profit from it….based on its chart alone, I coulda woulda shoulda bought into the close on Friday, but now it’s too late…hopefully we can get a big naïvely-optimistic-investor spike to short into…c’mon piggies, don’t read my blog, just buy buy, buy!!

(CNOA) Chinese rice play—pumped by the surprise tag team of CNBC and penny stock promoters—in depth article to follow tomorrow—be careful here, all is not is not kosher, not by a long shot

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LongorShort Capital Earns Nickname: Pretentious Prick Capital, aka Matt Damon In School Ties

Posted by timothysykes on Mon 7th of Apr, 2008 03:26:00 PM

I try to give the LongorShort Capital (LOSC), aka Pretentious Prick Capital (PP Capital) some exposure (seemingly much needed) and instead the dude rips on me?!?! Doesn’t understand why I’m still relevant (uhhh maybe cuz I detail all my mistakes—something nobody else in finance does and I’m willing to answer any AND all questions just as I post 40%+ returns in 5 months?!?!)

What a pompous ass…so typical…(unsurprisingly, this rich daddy’s boy also guest writes for that other pretentious finance rag Traitor Monthly) Welcome to why I want nothing to do with the joke that is the financial community…this guy is an embarrassment to both finance and blogging—basically whatever he touches he dishonors—no doubt he went to an Ivy League School as they’re breeding grounds for these kinds of pretentious pricks…like Matt Damon’s character in School Ties

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Short Selling Stocks: Plays Galore Limited By Absurd Pattern Day Trading Rule aka SEC Reign Of Terror

Posted by timothysykes on Mon 31st of Mar, 2008 06:13:48 PM

As I posted early this morning, there were lots of potential shorts today, but I had to be extra-choosy due to the SEC’s reign of terror over accounts under $25k (explanation down below).

Awoke early and reserves shares of my favs—placing my sell limit orders waaay high, intent on lowering them if and when any became good plays:

-300 ASTI @16.99 LMT
-300 GU @16.99 LMT
-1000 BPAX @5.99 LMT
-1000 REED @4.99 LMT
-1000 QBIK @3.99 LMT

Didn’t even need to reserve any COT, it was listed as easy to borrow. But my top pick was REED, and I was hoping—somewhat naively—to get a morning spike to short into…no such luck. It went down quickly, bounced, down again, blah whatever, volume for the day was 60k, spread between bid and ask was 20-40 cents, no thanks. Next!

BPAX—no morning spike there either—disappointing. Had the chance to short my 1,000 shares into a quickly disappearing block at $4.39, but I hate shorting morning droppers, too high risk of reversal, so I hesitated and it passed me by, on its way to $4.10-ish. Missed out on $200 profit, but if it’d held $4.39, it could’ve easily spiked, risk of $200-$400 loss, not a good risk-reward. As evidenced by its surprising afternoon comeback all the way to unchanged—this is not a typical hype play. Next!
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Sykes’ Saturday Seven: March 22nd, 2008 Edition

Posted by timothysykes on Sat 22nd of Mar, 2008 03:16:05 PM

Techcrunch might be right about Inspectd.com being fun and addicting, but it sets a very very very very very very very bad example. The problem lay in the fact that pattern recognition is only part of the game, you also have to understand the variables that align to CREATE those patterns. Comparing a 100% one-week stock price jump based on a positive earnings report—meaningful, further strength likely—is very very very very very very very different from the same kind of jump based on two ANALyst upgrades and a newsletter mention—hype, reversal probable. Exemplified by the pic below:

Check out THIS sweet 20 minute podcast talking to some other traders

Also check out THIS interview I did, chastising those pathetic people who can’t pay their debts

Be sure to visit some TIMlinks, I visit the top 5 regularly cuz they’re actually good

Have you seen the new JPMorgan/Bear logo? IT ROCKS! (gratzie Lindzon)
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Market Manipulation Vs. Real Stocks, Guess Which Offers More Predictable Profits!

Posted by timothysykes on Tue 11th of Mar, 2008 05:30:23 PM

Gotta start the fun off by featuring the chart of the manipulation scheme du jour, CVSC (no need to detail the company; whoever’s promoting it doesn’t care, so neither should you!)

Notice how each day now the daily gain is getting larger right alongside the trading volume—methinks a blow out is coming sooner rather than later, in a similar fashion to the blatant manipulation schemes of Christmas’ Past

But, then again, it doesn’t have that far to fall…yet, so hopefully this promoter is as cunning as Roger Clemens–meaning he has the will to cheat for the long run–and concoct a chart like this:

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How To Play Small Cap Spikes Like Cell Genesys (CEGE)

Posted by timothysykes on Fri 22nd of Feb, 2008 02:26:17 PM

By now, you all know I put waaaay more trust in chart patterns than I do BullShippers like corporate management and ANALysts. Stocks trading under $5 all have unique mind-blowing stories, but their fundamentals are non-existent, which is why I think they and everyone involved with them are full of BullShip! And, that’s why I look to short sell these stocks, preferably into spikes. To get a better sense of how to do that—their patterns are constantly evolving—I like to look back at some recent plays and see how they played out. Hindsight is easy, but the past helps us to better take advantage of future opportunities.

Biotech Cell Genesys (CEGE) is a great example. With a $200 mil marketcap, it trades at 150 times sales (do the math kids), has $30mil/quarter in losses and dwindling cash reserves. Corporate management says everything is rosy—pinning their hopes on their drug pipeline—but nobody pays them much mind considering the near perfect bearish yearly chart below.

But last Friday morning, positive cancer drug trial news spiked the stock from the $2 to the $2.75 range before falling 40 cents off its high on big time volume of nearly 8 million shares, up from the norm of a few hundred thousand traded daily. On Tuesday, ANALyst Joseph Pantginis reaffirmed his price target of nearly $8, whining that the market isn’t correctly valuing their recent positive news.

TIM Lesson: The market is never wrong, but ANALysts usually are.
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