How I Just Traded Dendreon Corp. (DNDN)

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Tue 7th of Apr, 2009 03:05:53 PM

Yesterday, I sent the following to TIMalert subscribers:

Shorted 1500 DNDN at $6.80ish…up from $4 mid-day Friday purely on hype/short squeeze, no drug news expected for several weeks, its tried to break below 6.80 several times today, the sellers are getting more aggressive, if it does crack, it could/should have a fairly easy path to the low $6s…volume is fading bigtime but the stock is still up on the day so gotta be extra careful and cut losses quickly if it keeps spiking

…actually got executed on my short at $6.74, but I was scared of missing out on a potential big tank…funny enough you can see I was right about it fading, but the big crack never came and I covered at $6.55 for just under $300 in profits when I saw support in the low $6.50 range (always trade conservatively when a short refuses to go negative on the day).

See how other TIMalert subscribers played it and don’t laugh at some of the small gains, remember the service only costs $30/month and it’s incredibly rare for anything in finance to actually pay for itself within a few days/weeks:

Shorted at 6.86, covered at 6.60, banked $250 after commissions. Good job Tim.
-Phil

No more shares of DNDN to borrow at TOS. +$248 , Bought back at 6.59
-MCB

Nevermind, stopped out at 6.42, total profit after comms $143.42, $123 of those thanks to reshorting
-G.S.

Made $485 on DNDN while I was sleeping. He he he.
-Erik

out @ 6.64 for a $120 take
-J.K.

out @ 6.71 made $30 after commissions
-John

Just signed up for your TIMalerts newsletter. I shorted at 6.86 and covered at 6.7 for an $80 dollar profit
-V.

Made $20, should have made $150, good point on only getting greedy while the stock is red for the day. Sold at 6.85 covered at 6.80
-G.S.

den How I Just Traded Dendreon Corp. (DNDN)

Maybe today is the big tank–I won’t know because I’m flying back to NYC from a cool west coast trip so I’ll miss today’s trading session and I’ll still be flying when you read this post.

What else can you learn from this trade is a.) when a piece of crap stock (as determined by its long-term chart) spikes based on hype and has fading volume, shorting for a nice fade/big tank is a good idea and b.) be careful of short squeezes as even fading stocks don’t always go straight down and c.) my TIMalerts service aims to find solid trade setups of 50 cent-$1/share gains, but when a stock doesn’t act perfectly, take small gains and be happy that you’re doing better than 90%-95% of other traders!

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  • Alphatrades
    this website nailed it today with the shorts check it out
  • Osti
    DNDN is great for what you're doing.. do be careful though. It moves up FAST, and downward veeeerrryyy slllloooowwwwllyyyy... Thanks for the update Tim
  • Big T
    DIGA What you think of this one as a short?

    -3ish EPS, hype recently smacking of B.S., amd its up double in 2 weeks, from like .45 to 1.10+ish.

    Could pop south as early as April 8, but I dunno, do not want to get squeezed and I suppose finding shares will be challenging, as it usually is on these...
  • Bob
    Tim good job but DNDN is scary I don't like to short near binary events. Better to wait and see like arna and ride the mo. DNDN news could happen at any time (probably after hours) so a day play has much less risk. I know its starting to get a perfect setup but I don't trust it. PS I have been following your blog since nov. 07 thanks for opening my eyes.
  • Jenny
    Hope you get your ass ripped on DNDN. It's a real stock bone heads.
  • look at all the suckers in DNDN, they actually think i care if theyre drugs get approved or not, it was a short squeeze, i've profited and now i'm gone...the fact that so many suckers are the stock makes me think the company will ultimately fail
  • alex
    Tim, you never know ... they might suprise you with good results, in which case the stock could double overnight on the news. And the spike to $6 could be due to an institution that is privy to the news already. Don't laugh at this statement because I've definitely seen it happen before. It's common practice for institutions to pay doctors who are overseeing the trials to give them results.

    It might not be a bad long bet because I would estimate that the potential gap up would be bigger than the potential gap down (if it gets cut in half overnigh, thats only $3.50 per share, whereas if it doubles that's $7 per share)
  • again alex, i don t care about the results, i wasnt it in for results, either way and no the results wont come out any night, its a few weeks away
  • Spock Capone
    Hey Timothy ... are you castrated? If you are a man you should care about the results because prostrate cancer is a serious problem. Not everything is about making $100 ... oh and by the way shorting like you do why not tell us about the times when you lost a lot of money ... your followers short at 6.85 and buy back at 6.80??? that's brilliant risk getting your ass chewed off to make $80??? that's genius trading at work
  • Spock, show me once where i say i'm a great trader, please...i make tons and tons and tons of mistakes and yet my numbers speak for themselves...that is whats needed these days, a REAL stock guru, not some FAKE perfect "guru"....everybody makes mistakes, the key is learning to grow your account while making them!
  • scambait
    Bought DNDN 5.90. Because of insane Implied volatility %211 stock at 6.58, I sold May 10 calls@ 1.78 while buying May 5 puts at $2.20 to collar the position. April 24th event may drive it - not sure but with very cheap call underneath this monster I can sleep. Stock is near yearly highs and if it tanks to $4 I am covered.

    I'll still keep the stock and write calls each month against it for income as volitality keeps calls premium high.

    If stock explodes upward on news i effectively sold it for $10shr now thus locking in aprrx $300 profit per hundred shares of my trade.
  • scambait
    Oh there is a short squeeze going on with DNDN as well
  • VD
    Great call on this one Timmy!

    DNDN is now only up FOUR TIMES the amount your shorted this at.

    Hahaha.

    Shower anyone?
  • Timothy Yikes
    The only thing Timmy is short is money.

    Hahahahaha
  • Vd, i could care else where stocks like DNDN end up, i aim to take predictable 10-20% gains in 1-2 days, which I did on this one too. Trying to hurt my credible is futile, pick on someone not up 370% in the last few months
  • Steven
    I guess you got out in time for that little spike up into the low 20s. I didn't.... Sad to say I am still into this trade from the 3.96 position... But then again it isn't that bad... I have 6 accounts. Short from one Buy from the other. My advice on DNDN. trade the dips and short at 31 and above. There is trench support on this at 25 so shorting below that will only get you burned big time. Basic trade action is in the ownership right now. 25-26 on the buy, 31 to 27 on the short
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