How I Played Horizon Lines, Inc. (HRZ)

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Wed 4th of Feb, 2009 03:25:11 PM

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Bad Trades

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This was the email I sent to TIMalert subscribers the other day:

Bought 4000 HRZ at $4, Earnings Turnaround…this shipper reported a surprise profit, is cutting costs, doing everything right, just as the Reuters article that will be read/promoted all weekend says…2 million shares short, trading ridiculously cheap valuation, lots of bottom pickers gonna think this is the bottom, careful it’s already up 35%+ today, resistance at $4.23, my entry isn’t event hat good, but with this one, i don’t think i have to be perfect, wouldn’t be surprised if it wavers in the $3.80-$3.90 range rest of the day, but I think it gaps up nicely/performs well early next week…told you i buy stocks, just need the proper setup!

…gave a few hours, but it failed to break $4–after much trying–so I exited saying:

Sold 4000 HRZ at $3.85, i don’t like how it can’t break $4 added to the overall market accelerating its sell off and CNBC news that the “bad bank”plan might be dead…not worth the risk of being long over the weekend with the overall market hanging on by a thread, technically-wise…so much for my first buy, annoying $600 loss, flat on the month, not risking bigger loss with imperfect pattern…watching SKYT and PSTI for potential shorts late today or Monday

When see the full 5-day chart here:

…you understand that while I was right about their earnings being a lasting catalyst, I entered before it proved it could break the key $4 resistance.

As it surged 10%, to $4.40, inside of an hour of breaking this key resistance yesterday, enriching several TIMalert subscribers who saw my premarket post yesterday:

HRZ closed right at the key $4 resistance, making me feel better about
buying the other day…this thing is still an earnings turnaround, if it can
break $4 and take out resistance at $4.2, I still think it can really surge
to the $5s or even $6s pretty soon…be careful of fakeouts, but methinks the
chart will resemble another undervalued good company earnings breakout VPRT,
potential buy

Check out the chart of VPRT, it’s exactly how this HRZ is playing out…

You see there’s not just one entrance point on these things, just like there’s no one right entrance point ont he stocks I short, which is why PennyStocking will become a lot more popular than most people believe…the key is knowing when to get in and when to get out.

I was dead wrong on my entry so I cut my losses very quickly, as did several TIMalert subscribers below (some banked by entering perfectly or even betting the other way, which is fine, more power to you!):

and made an extra $19 shorting on the TimAlert sell. +$232 overall. -Reaper

Up $64 on 5,000 shares. -matthewcox

in and out for a 250 loss… -jkart

loss $241.00 -ghozt

lost $240 -jessed

Got in at 3.8699, got out at 3.69 for a $170ish loss on 1000 shares…boo… -JeffMoates

…while it’s not the end of the world to be dead wrong–it’s a little undisciplined, but nobody’s perfect–it is bad not to cut losses quickly when you are wrong which is why when people ask me when I cut my losses–is it 5, 6, 8%, I say no, I cut losses IMMEDIATELY when a stock doesn’t act the way I think it will…by the time I get my execution on my volatile little Penny Stocks, it’s usually a loss–or a gain in some cases–of a few percent, aka a scratch.

Look at all my trades over the past year and watch my instructional trading DVDs and you’ll see scratches aren’t the things that make or break my 200% annual returns, they’re just what prevent me from disastrous losses that hurt my chances, and yours, at achieving such mind numbing performance.

Welcome to real trading, taking small losses is something EVERY SUCCESSFUL TRADER MUST DO.

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Hedo__Turkoglu

Instead of detailing your smallest loss of your past four trades, why don't you detail one of the greater losses you made SKYT or ARTC? Your readers would appreciate it more if you detailed the worst moves instead of any bad move you make to try to hide the worse trades.

Timothy Sykes

SKYT is up next u impatient bitch

Hedo__Turkoglu

Yes! I cannot wait! That's why I pay thousands for these alerts-n-DVDs!

The Dean

@Hedo_Turkoglu... take that DIGITAL BITCH SLAP POW!

determined

for all the new traders out there. read the last 3 paragraphs and burn it into your mind.

i knew this was important but it wasn't until i saw an episode of livestock where tim talks about cutting losses ,that if was finally ingrained into my brain.

Don_Smith

Great post - This is the kind of info I look for and need. Still long HRZ from 3.45. After todays sideways action I was thinking this might be the start of a break down like CWST (winner for me).

Global shipping was down a bit today but is still up overall. That is not a reason to stay in the position.

I will watch the price to confirmation my position and exit quickly before a loss.

Thanks

lmsith

Ouch --Tim--- what's been going on

Mr.Gouda

Tim,
Great call on HRZ.
I shorted it at $4 and made a reaping down to $3.44/share right after your alert came out to long it at $4. For those who don't believe in technical analysis, I used technical analysis tools on HRZ and they were dead on! What do you know? Technical analysis tools aren't so much of a fallacy after all.

Timothy Sykes

gouda, good earnings sometimes make TA obsolete, but it didnt workt hat time...u'll like my latest pick, long SFLY on the multi-month breakout and solid earnings

Timothy Sykes

oh but all u "awesome traders" out ther,e pelase do feel free to join covestor and dethrone me, message board talk is cheap, its PATHETIC people "as smart as you" arent beating me:

http://www.covestor.com/rankings/portfolio?show...

Timothy Sykes

yeah thats right u big talking little dickheads, hindsight is easy, amazing to cover right at the low, u must have a goddamn iq of 180, fucken liars make me sick

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Date	Stock	Buy	Sell	Net
Nov 19	AENY	$2.80	$3.02	$1148
Nov 18	NLST	$4.16	$4.40	$947
Nov 18	IMGG	$1.42	$1.64	$2094
Nov 17	NLST	$5.04	$5.59	$2195
Nov 13	VRMLQ	$21.50	$22.97	$2901
Nov 11	EONC	$2.61	$2.80	$687
Nov 10	EONC	$2.74	$3.36	$9784
Nov 6	QXM	$4.31	$4.80	$1936
Nov 4	COT	$8.66	$8.88	$642
Nov 4	QXM	$4.61	$4.89	$822
Oct 30	DDRX	$25.70	$26.53	$812
Oct 29	CTDC	$4.00	$4.42	$781
Oct 26	AWSL	$3.24	$4.10	$2516
Oct 23	RODM	$5.27	$5.23	$301
Oct 22	AMLM	$2.69	$2.97	$820
Oct 22	USEG	$6.12	$6.09	$85
Oct 20	CBOU	$8.93	$9.06	$243
Oct 16	VRMLQ	$16.79	$18.65	$2773
Oct 13	YONG	$11.05	$11.66	$1202
Oct 13	NPHC	$0.59	$0.71	$583
Oct 12	IMGG	$0.60	$0.70	$682
Oct 9	ZAGG	$5.50	$6.10	$2380
Oct 7	GVBP	$0.03	$0.27	$702
Oct 1	NPHC	$0.70	$0.85	$1482

Total: $98,094 (681%)