The Latest TIMalert 15% Winner: The Unbearable Simplicity of Short Selling A Friday Afternoon Short Squeeze & The Incompetence Of Penny Stock Traders
Posted by Timothy Sykes on Mon 24th of Nov, 2008 03:10:11 PM
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Like EVC was before it, shorting and covering KVHI today for an incredibly easy 15% gain, putting me up 195% since November 1, 2007, is both gratifying and humiliating.
Gratifying because I got in and made a high percentage quick $800+; humiliating because the intelligence of my TIMalert subscribers rivals that of penny stock promoters (on the same level as a 3-year-old).
Yes, many of you were humiliated today by one of the most obvious “gimmes” I’ve seen in weeks.
I don’t know what I have to do to get you people to learn to anticipate morning tanks, but no matter how many times I go over these concepts or how much I promote my instructional DVDs–which detail these patterns–you guys just can’t seem to bank alongside me.
Let’s review this madness:
Passages from my Sunday night alert sent to TIMalert subscribers so they could prepare for Monday since there were 25 stocks in play, almost all potential shorts:
The late day runup on Friday opens the door to a lot of crappy low priced runups worth shorting…last time I made $1400 in a few minutes shorting EVC at the market open the next day…yes, the drops can be quick so you gotta anticipate
KVHI surged 60% to $4 almost all in the last few minutes, definitely a potential short
Alert sent right at the market open:
shorted 1200 KVHI at 4.28ish….wanted 2k shares, but only got half…told ya it was gonna be quick, this is the same type of play when i shorted and covered EVC for an easy $1400 profit after its quick ridiculous runup from 1.2 to 3.2 in the last hour when the dow spiked 1000 points–i covered at 2ish…kvhi has the same kind of disastrous overall chart with market/short squeeze influenced spike…up from its real price of the 3 to 3.50ish range…on only a few thousand shares…this is how to use small account size to your advantage as this is a high percentage play that cant be done with more than a few thousand shares…my goal is to cover under 4 in the next 1-2 days
Alert sent less than an hour later:
covered 1500 KVHI at 3.80ish…i apologize for it being so illiquid, but its the illiquid ones thst are the easiest (since this thing surged on like 10k of volume late Friday)…at first i sent out the wrong entry price because i prepared my rational before my actual execution (to make it to u guys as fast as possible)…then i thought i only got 1200, then i saw i got a total of 1500 shares short at 4.27ish…decent entry…like EVC, i knew the fall would be quick so when i saw some size on the ask in the 3.70-3.80 range, i grabbed it (since i really just wanted to cover below 4). all in all, a $900 profit inside of an hour on a classic morning panic.
yes, this was too illiquid for most/all of u, but if u’ve seen my EVC trade and learned the lessons in my pennystocking part 2 DVD, u’d have seen this a mile away. SD and DPTR were the other 2 with the exact same pattern, this one was just highest percentage odds–as SD and DPTR bouncebacks are proving (those companies are more real so u’ll have tons more dip buyers)
Let’s look at the chart:
Yes, normally I like to wait 2-3 days before shorting any spike, but look at that intraday and you’ll see it wasn’t a real spike, it was a last minute spike to $4.75 on just a few thousand shares…that almost always reverses to some substantial degree.
I shorted around $4.25ish, and since it’s so illiquid there were only a few other opportunities to short in the $4.30-$4.50 range, but I’m saddened that I didn’t have any competition there from subscribers/DVD students.
Sometimes I just wanna short ASAP at the market open because any bids at or near the previous ridiculous close are just gifts. The market gave you guys this gift and you all cried out “No, I don’t want your gift”.
That’s rude.
I honestly don’t know what to say except to learn the friggin patterns…those who shorted SD and DPTR were on the right track and I am heartened to see TIMalert testimonials like:
I shorted DPTR at 5.84 and covered at 5.57 for $77 dollars profit after commission.
-YG
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TIM Trades
View All| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2 | KIRK | $10.60 | $11.53 | $1377 |
| June 30 | ISRL | $107.97 | $118 | $985 |
| June 24 | LZB | $4.53 | $4.81 | $1240 |
| June 17 | GWSC | $1.86 | $2.76 | $2679 |
| June 15 | SHZ | $1.66 | $1.83 | $280 |
| June 15 | SPNG | $0.11 | $0.18 | $630 |
| June 12 | JAZZ | $2.84 | $3.26 | $380 |
| June 12 | MAPP | $9.68 | $10.07 | $565 |
| June 8 | HEB | $3.00 | $4.18 | $334 |
| June 3 | GROW | $8.64 | $8.96 | $740 |
| June 3 | SYMX | $1.21 | $1.11 | $940 |
| June 1 | USCN | $0.55 | $0.86 | $260 |
Total: $65,674 (421%)
Yeah my DPTR was pretty much worst case for that trade. When I got in I was doing OK but was ugly getting out try to rely on trailstop that I didn’t do correctly and I think it made a market order when it kicked in instead of a lmt. If I could do it again I would have covered before I left for my meeting and been content with a $120 profit instead of being greedy and hoping it would keep tanking while I was gone.
Made a lousy $430 on DPTR. Would have doubled that but closed it to concentrate on a different trade that I really messed up; I turned what was literally a guaranteed $500 profit (true arbitrage) and ended up with a $500 loss.
played DPTR instead of KVHI, felt more comfortable with the volume shorted 1k @ 5.9 covered at 5.41 $476 net. Just learing how to play the Monday after a Friday run up, I suppose its like having a really good time then a hangover and looking down the toilet in the morning.
good, do whatever u guys wanna play, as long as u do play…reaper complaining about $400 profit, nojo happy with one
Couldn’t help myself but to short STXS into the closing, Couldn’t break Nov 4th resistance at 4.50 even with the market climbing and climbing, has been up straight three days, after hours down. THis thing looks tired… if it breaks 4.50 tomorrow, now that would be a different story.
But for now, I see a gap down. (yeah, I know, three white soldiers..bla bla…. but it should have used today’s steam to break 4.50, if it is ever gonna break it, will first retrace.
Tim,
Are the DVD’s going out tomorrow?
no, this weekend, just finishing up the workbooks
Any take on STXS Tim?
Short APP tomorrow morning….spiked up to 3.95 in the last few minutes.
APP looks like a pretty good short. Good call Dov
few short watches and plays for tomorrow: http://tinyurl.com/58se6u
Hey Tim where’s that quote for tickers?
the Beacon ad flickers, reminding us of your incredible hypocrisy, while we all read how you browbeat your own subscribers for not being perfect. It’s so warm and cozy like a Christmas dinner with Vince Guaraldi music playing in the background.
hypocrisy? i love stock pumpers, see how boring its been when they’re not around? go play with your toys u little baby
new post:
http://timothysykes.com/2008/1.....gy…/