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The Latest 20%+ TIMalert Winner, But As Usual I Wasn’t Greedy Enough, Must Go To Synagogue To Be Better Jew

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Tue 2nd of Sep, 2008 06:35:06 PM
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From the TIMalert right near the market open, TAYD dropped 21%, here’s the story of how it was entirely predictable and lots of TIMalert subscribers banked:

In THIS morning’s watchlist, when I said about Taylor Devices, Inc. (TAYD) “this thing is gonna tank, it’s my #1 potential short”

I knew I had to reserve shares early…7:40am. Done.

After I shorted 1,000 shares right near the market open at $8.13ish, I sent out this alert to TIMalert subscribers:

one of the simplest plays in a while, earthquake absorption equipment maker always goes up on natural disasters–people get excited about possible deals–hurricane gustav wasnt that bad, sadly–this thing should go back down…read my book An American Hedge Fund–and see I once made over $200,000 shorting this same stock after the Asian tsunami, not much has changed since then except i’m more conservative…goal is to cover under 7.50 in the next 1-2 days, not a huge profit cuz it wasn’t up enough

Unfortunately, since it was a morning dump, it tanked rather quickly to my target area of $7.50 and very few subscribers actually got in—luckily there a little bounce to the $7.70-$7.80 area, but that’s it.

Considering the stock was only up from the low $6s—and yes, even though it’s an earthquake, not hurricane play, its got a proven track record of spiking during natural disasters—as I detail in my book An American Hedge Fund. So, I took my profit and sent out this alert to TIMalert subscribers:

i held the stock just inside of 1 hour…sorry the morning dip happened so fast, but thats usually the pattern in the morning as opposed to the afternoon…especially when the main catalyst for the stock’s surge disappears, literally overnight…i dunno what idiots bought this morning, but they haven’t been keeping up with what a failure hurricane gustav is….further downside probable–but i wouldnt guess more than 50 cents/share max in the next 1-2 days aka not worth my time, but i went in with a goal in mind and i took that goal so i’m out…this was a solid 8%ish profit, made just over $600, puts me solidly past the $25k mark, now at $25,921, up 109% since november 2007

As it turned out, I was dead on in my thinking, had a great entry, horrible exit—there wasn’t just 50 cents more downside, but $1+/share within 2 hours….so I left $1,000 in profits on the table…but I’ve never been one to time TAYD very well—am getting better as evidenced by my lack of a $180,000 loss this time around before the gain!

The even better news is TIMalert subscribers have gotten accustomed to my poor timing—yes, my 109% return in the last 9 months really is worst case scenario—so they had much more patience and some really banked:

$190ish profits after commissions
-GS

DAMN, I just covered my TAYD short @ 6.52 from 7.70. Made $575 in total profit on this trade, what a way to start the month out!
-Adam

In at 7.65 out at 6.99 $316 after fees.
Thanks Tim.
-MDW

Just covered my TAYD short for $560 profit.
This was my first TIMAlert.
-mapiguy

I’m a bad Jew who needs to go to synagogue this weekend to learn how to be greedier on these kinds of plays that surge based on short-term catalysts that come and go quickly. Seriously.

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  • nice call on that one Tim and nice to see you weren't the only one profiting on it.
  • yahi'm usually one of the worst timers out of all the subscribers, which is part of the reason why i write a newsletter and not run a hedge fund
  • total_keops
    Here are stocks I'm following tomorow that are not on today's Tim list or on The Dark Side of Trading. All shorts.
    Overbought pattern;
    OTIV, RBY, ICAD
    Downtrending pattern, daily triangle break;
    XIDE on red, SIX bellow 1$, EGLE bellow 25, NAT bellow 33.

    Some are expensive stocks, I just play lower volume. Remember you can play odd lots (less than 100 shares). I am already short some of them, do your homework.
  • MuslimJewNowChristian
    Can you, in your own eloquent terms, STFU with the JEW stuff? So, you are a JEW - who gives a flying fuck?
  • i'm a bad jew, i'm not greedy enough
  • traderjay
    Hey Muslim, don't read his website if you are offended, duh!!! You idiot!!!
  • Yah Muslim Tim is trying to be the best Jew he can be. So STFU!
  • P.S. Kick ass trading streak Tim :) just closed my first loss in a while as well got screwed on GLBL when Gustav didn't go tear up some shizzz!
  • Hi Tim,

    sounds like the big money should stay and play with you (Thanks 2 for the money)

    I will get my ass in gear, I live in Europe and have an etrade account, heard it is not good for shorting, so ill need to get another trading acc and then join your alerts.
  • younggunz
    I can't believe how much TAYD bounced back after falling from above 8 to low 6 then back to mid to upper 7 then finally closing 7.23. Talk about volatile.
  • ha yeah right this isnt volatility, wait til u see stocks go from 2 to 7 ina day, then post, thissi nothing
  • oskar1995
    You are very bad, very bad Jew (Babu from Seinfeld). It certainly is tough to complain about an 8% gain in only a few hours of work. I love seeing the same patterns emerge for certain stocks like TAYD. A 10 year chart on the stock is practically a road map for various natural disasters and world events.
  • HopeSolo
    Tim,

    Just bought the book via Amazon, they listed one day shipping on the homepage, after I bought it they said it'd be coming in 8 days, lol. I've been following the blog for a few months now. Anyways, I'm going to read the book first and then make a decision on buying the DVD/Alerts and I too have an E*Trade account. A commenter above said that E*Trade is not good for shorting, why is this so? I've looked into penalties and they appear to only give you a $39 penalty for selling mutual funds under 90 days, but I don't see any restrictions on shorting stock. I already have margin capabilities on my account so I believe I'm good to go. Any knowledge you have pertaining to shorting/e*trade? For various reasons I would like to stay with them opposed to using TOS. Thanks.
  • younggunz
    I don't think they let you short under $5 and hard to borrow stocks are well...harder to get at e-trade then someone like interactive brokers and think or swim
  • oskar1995
    HopeSolo, a friend of mine with an account through e-trade with the barrel of monkeys (margin, naked option writing, et al) said he runs into issues with shorting anything considered "hard to borrow". His strategy is typically long, but he had his eyes on a couple of small-cap shorts and was unable to jump on them.
  • oskar1995
    Tim,

    Dont know if you will get a chance to respond to this as I am sure you are busy with a billion and a half things, however it would be great to address (not sure if its been mentioned elsewhere).

    At what point is it possible for the TimAlerts members to start cannibalizing themselves. With enough people reacting to the news at roughly the same time, im sure its possible for them to start short squeezing each other. I know most of the TimAlerts members wont cover exactly when you do (its obvious your timing sucks) but I wonder at what point the scalability of each trade ends up effecting the profitability of each person trading the position. Im certainly not taking a shot at your methods as your track record more than speaks for itself, just something im curious about. It may never happen as the availability of shares will just dry up and not effect the active trading.
  • HopeSolo
    Young Gunz + oskar1995: Thanks for the replies. I've looked into TOS, however there are a couple things I don't like / preventing me from using it. First, it seems that all trading is done through their software application opposed to web-based? This makes it impossible for me to use as my company blocks the software, I'm at work from 8-5 so I need to do trading web-based opposed to software based. Also, one of the posters here mentioned a few days ago that reserving the short takes place via a chatroom which their agents sometimes don't execute? He posted a log of the chat and I couldn't imagine trading that way. Is that true?
  • younggunz
    ToS has web based trading. the chat posted is an exeption to the norm. sometimes they are slow but the reason he was using th echat is because it was a hard to borrow stock. e-trade you'd probably have to call them to get it borrowed as well that or just flat out rejected.
  • oskar1995
    HopeSolo - I agree with Young Gunz on both points. A quick look at ToS's website under the tab "Software" will show a tab for the desktop program, as well as the web-based trading. Fairly cut and dry there. I think one of my favorite features at ToS is the ability to buy back any option at .05 for free. zero commission. Its great for option writing. My buddy whom I mentioned in the previous post is beginning to use ToS for that reason alone. For a while he wrote a lot of "out of the money" puts. The idea was to collect the risk premium and let it expire. with the zero commission he can redeploy that excess margin before the expiration date if the contract trades at 5c.
  • oskar, already talked about cannibalizing a while ack, huge discussion, do some research, only way it'll happen is if i keep giving great picks, good problem to have.

    etrade sux for shorting, us thinkorswim
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TIM Trades

View All
Date Stock Buy Sell Net
Nov 19 AENY $2.80 $3.02 $1148
Nov 18 NLST $4.16 $4.40 $947
Nov 18 IMGG $1.42 $1.64 $2094
Nov 17 NLST $5.04 $5.59 $2195
Nov 13 VRMLQ $21.50 $22.97 $2901
Nov 11 EONC $2.61 $2.80 $687
Nov 10 EONC $2.74 $3.36 $9784
Nov 6 QXM $4.31 $4.80 $1936
Nov 4 COT $8.66 $8.88 $642
Nov 4 QXM $4.61 $4.89 $822
Oct 30 DDRX $25.70 $26.53 $812
Oct 29 CTDC $4.00 $4.42 $781
Oct 26 AWSL $3.24 $4.10 $2516
Oct 23 RODM $5.27 $5.23 $301
Oct 22 AMLM $2.69 $2.97 $820
Oct 22 USEG $6.12 $6.09 $85
Oct 20 CBOU $8.93 $9.06 $243
Oct 16 VRMLQ $16.79 $18.65 $2773
Oct 13 YONG $11.05 $11.66 $1202
Oct 13 NPHC $0.59 $0.71 $583
Oct 12 IMGG $0.60 $0.70 $682
Oct 9 ZAGG $5.50 $6.10 $2380
Oct 7 GVBP $0.03 $0.27 $702
Oct 1 NPHC $0.70 $0.85 $1482

Total: $98,094 (681%)