How My Latest TIMalert On 4imprint Group plc (FOUR) Was Just Wrong
Posted by timothysykes on Tue 19th of Aug, 2008 12:06:50 PM
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It always hurts when you’re wrong, but in trading, even in PennyStocking, you gotta come to grips with it. If you don’t, you’re not gonna succeed. Trust me, I know. I’ve had too many streaks of perfection and over time they start to screw you up in the head.
Like my latest streak where I was basically 21 for 21 on my TIMAlerts.
And even though the probable fraud FOUR jumped 10% over my entry price/TIMalert at $2.80ish, I was pretty much dead wrong when I sent out this alert explaining why I bought this stock (yes, I have and will continue buying probable frauds…when I think there’s upside…frauds can run up faster than real companies…just gotta be more careful in these situations):
FOUR was trading at $9 when big ole Citron Research wrote up THIS post that poked a lot of holes in FOUR’s story…today FOUR responds with a letter to the SEC, an appointment of a former FBI guy as senior VP of blah blah and announce a strategic alliance that will supposedly bring in $40 mil in revenue in 2008-2009…who to believe? my guess is citron is right, FOUR is a sketchy sketchy company, but FOUR also has 400k shares shorted, up from 40k last month…methinks its Citron and his boys so if they really think this is a fraud, they’re gonna try to ride it to 0….considering the stock has tanked so much, and FOUR looks like they’re going to defend their “whatever it is that they’re actually running”, we got a possible short squeeze here…maybe back to $4? $5? who knows, who cares, kinda like sketchy BIDZ bounced after their first big drop….hell even CNEX bounced from the $2s to the $4s after their first big drop…before the eventual gradual fade into oblivion, which I’m guessing will happen to FOUR too
It’s even riskier to hold overnight here as the SEC could get involved, halting this thing at any time, but as u know i like risk, because i understand it, and the odds favor a short squeeze here, so i took a 1/2 position, only $5k worth, buying in right when it just broke the intraday high of $270-$2.75…got some anticipating the break, averaged up at $2.85…my goal really is to get out in the low $4s, if not the high $3s, just gotta play it by its price action….as always
Yes, it was good to wait to buy after the intraday breakout as that’s when bigtime moves to the upside often begin, and it got up to $3.15ish, but the shorts — probly Citron adding to his position — just pounded buyers into the ground and within an hour, I’d sold out for a $350ish loss in the $2.65-$2.70 range.
As usual, I proved my incompetence with buying — especially choosing such a crushed one like this (when I do buy, I prefer true breakouts with no biter shareholders) — but I did do one thing right, took my losses quickly.
Cuz now, just 1 day later, the stock is about $1 lower at $1.75, which just proves when you’re wrong, you gotta exit ASAP…cuz these stocks can really reverse…maybe even be aggressive and flip a position from a long to a short. Price action matters most, not the little thoughts we have in our little brains.
As you can guess there are no testimonials for this alert, most people lost a few hundred bucks…thank god I wrote “risky, risky, risky, risky” cuz that’s what this trade was. Unlike today’s 30% fully predictable drop in equally-sketchy POGS– which I missed even though I had shares reserved — which was simple as pie. Glad more than a couple TIMalert subscribers got in on that one as I highlighted in my morning watchlist and all the shares to short were gone before the market open, leaving non-paying peeps in the dust.
PS All you people too scared of what will happen when you admit you were wrong, guess what, nothing happens! Actuslly there’s been more TIMalert signups a. cuz my 21 for 21 streak is finally sinking in to people and b.) me taking a loss proves I’m not a BS artist who’s gonna claim to be perfect/right every time. Funny/sad how abused everyone in this joke of an industry is, all it takes is a little honesty people…
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