Why I Bought Turnaround Play Noble International, Ltd. (NOBL) at $5
Posted by timothysykes on Thu 7th of Aug, 2008 07:14:00 PM
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Well, actually it was 1,500 shares at $5.01 and $5.02, solid close at $5.40, so I’m already up like $600…kinda funny that on the day I post (right HERE) that I will not be forced into unworthy trades a worthy trade pops up.
I’ll explain why I bought NOBL by the alert I sent TIMalert subscribers, many of whom bought in at $5.30, $5.05, $5.06, $5.10, $5.20s…:
yes, its up a lot, think 50%+ on the day, and its got a lot of bitter longterm shareholders, but against all odds–and incompetent ANALyst advice–they reported solid earnings…already $1 off its intraday high today due to it going up too quickly and the overall market being crappy, this is a massive company just tied down by massive debt…any time a debt play starts to look like it could turn around, shorts get scared–already shorts have been reduced from 1.1mil to 300k in the last month, probly now down to 100k after today…earnings turnaround plays can and often do have multi-day runs, so i’m looking for a retest of today’s highs in the low $6s…ideally with some morning spiking like it had today
As to how I found it–guys, it was the only stock up a lot today, all I do is look for big winners each day and determine which ones I think will reverse, which will continue and which have no probability either way (the majority, hence my lack of trading lately)
Judging by NOBL’s strong close–definitely the result of some squeezing of the stupid wannabe short sellers who are too cheap to buy my PennyStocking DVD Package so they really don’t know the difference between a longer lasting fundamentally important earnings event and a fluffy/temporary pump and dump event–I’d say this thing has waaaay more upside potential than downside and that’s what I look for when I buy…and of course I need volatility, which this one’s proven its got.
Here are all the solid reasons why I bought:
a.) ANALysts can upgrade–which often/usually happens pre-market the next day (especially in this case the ANALyst who formerly had a job with the wannabe brokerage firm Morgan Joseph who downgraded it one day before these blow out earnings…on the conference call he said “I severely underestimated how much cost cutting was possible”, schmuckkkkkk)
b.) More earnings coverage by all the media outlets that want to look like they’re up on the latest news even though they’re dinosaurs (WSK, TM, SCI all have articles…so far)
c.) A stock that holds 60% gains on the day where the markets are getting crushed means people can smell the turnaround, not day trader, I’m talking investors…this was a $20 stock just a few months ago, plenty of upside to go, only $2 of downside from its lows.
d.) Shorts are getting frantic calls from their brokers cuz this debt-riddled company really is looking surprisingly healthy, meaning a big ass short squeeze is possible/probable
e.) I dutifully listened to the conference call to discover they’re benefitting bigtime from auto growth in China, but I’m not gonna pretend to understand the automotive industry’s dynamics…as that soon-to-be-fired-if-there’s-any-justice-in-the-world ANALyst from Morgan “JP-wannabe who really deserves less fees than an auction-rate securities broker” James proves, all the analysis in the world ain’t gonna make it very predictable. Good thing the market analyzed the stock for me, voting their future bright with all those buys even when the stock was up so much on the day in a shitty market.
f.) as I noted in THIS comment (LOL non-subscribers can’t see, how you like them apples!) on the TIMalerts-subscribers-only website at 3pm, 30 minutes before the official alert went out:
was watching NOBL for possible overnight buy, but it just broke intraday support so probly no thank u
That’s right, it cracked intraday support at $5.20 and coulda woulda shoulda gone down $1-$2 cuz there was no support…and the market was tanking baaaad…so I thought it was done for…except that this earnings report means this company is now probly undervalued so there turned out be buyers everywhere aka it only dropped 30 cents (not coincidentally to support level from early June) aka it proved to me that the broken support on the day today was meaningless and more importantly, proved how little downside there is aka lots of early shorts are f%$#ed when it opens tomorrow cuz the downside is so already proven limited and it’s already displayed healthy consolidation.
And that’s it, I still fully expect it to touch the low $6s tomorrow, I’ll either look to get out just under $6 or over it, depending on how big the buy blocks are (dumb panicking shorts, brokers don’t realize they should hide their true size, they just put in market orders, gotta love the ignorance) maybe if the squeeze is big enough, it could even get up to the $7s–after all, it went up $2 in 20 minutes this morning and that was before the soon-to-be-poorer shorts piled on today…
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TIM Trades
View All| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | IIJI | $2,79 | $2.95 | $442 |
| Nov 6 | CVI | $4.42 | $4.70 | $530 |
| Nov 5 | MECA | $3.68 | $3.95 | $490 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $5.18 | $4.94 | $472 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $4.83 | $5.01 | $333 |
| Nov 3 | NAK | $3.30 | $3.37 | $157 |
| Oct 31 | IDAE | $2.18 | $2.18 | $20 |
| Oct 30 | HSNI | $7.37 | $7.86 | $561 |
| Oct 29 | EVC | $1.97 | $2.70 | $1439 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.92 | $7.30 | $540 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.20 | $6.00 | $320 |
Total: $34,399 (177%)
NOBL I will be looking to SHORT this one after the fade.
i wouldnt be too quick to short earnings turnarounds, this could easily have WSCI-like action
I know coach but this is your classic supernova and there is a lot of upside but after the freenzy there WILL be some down-side. You will have to trust me on this one, I listen to my coach TIM SYKES and stick to his rules.
no its earnings, no earnings play can ever be a supernova
Oh ok GOT IT! Thanks for your help and Congratulations on your success in the month of JULY. That is the AMERICAN WAY. You are a Great American. Keep up the GREAT WORK.
Tim I use to sell the hell out of Auction Rate Securities
total_keops(TIMBUCKS: $31)
August 7th, 2008 at 3:16 am
>All these comments and only one on ILE
Way ahead of you on NOBL,caught it right out of the gate on IB pre,upping on vol:
(Aug 07-09:36) 13th_FLOOR: NOBL 4.1
(Aug 07-09:36) 13th_FLOOR: 4.3 NOBL
(Aug 07-10:17) 13th_FLOOR: out NOBL…cleaned up on that
In 3.75 out 5.90 for 57%
Power of IB pre,wooooooooo
Still 3xs full MKTY USS AGIX,croak on no vol you dogs
another beauty:
(Aug 07-10:56) 13th_FLOOR: CHC 2
(Aug 07-10:56) 13th_FLOOR: ran yest CHC
(Aug 07-11:04) 13th_FLOOR: ohhhhh baby 2.2 CHC
(Aug 07-11:12) 13th_FLOOR: CHC 2.4
(Aug 07-11:53) kylez32: CHC hod 2.79
Love this crap
Everyday there is something
Looks good Tim it’all make my scan and I’ll say the same thing, looking for the test of $6 out of the open and then watching for the weakness - nice trade so far - you might have to get up early for PM action
VRNM amazing short out of the opening squeeze today!
Guys, relax on the egos unless you can shake the ground for 30 seconds.
NasdaqCM stocks don’t show up on any highs of the day lists including many brokers. Example today is FOODZ which is up 80% but you won’t see it on any finance sites.
ILE didn’t show up on the day highs on AMEX because it was a sub $1 stock.
There you have it.
P.S. I have a 12 inch cock. LMAO
Scratch FOODZ it’s a warrant. I’ll give you a different example later.
IMRX is an example on the Nasdaq CM. Doesn’t show up anywhere even though it’s up 50%.
WSTF is a Nasdaq GM which does show up on top lists but since it’s sub 1 it didn’t show up.
TommyTim All stocks show up on Etrade PRO’s High Low ticker even sub penny
Tommy
if you’re talking to me,come in the chat.
I will shake your ground!
It’s live,my alerts are live.
Put up or shut up!
Mike,
What chat room is that?
longshort,
It’s… http://mysite.verizon.net/resy.....thescreen/
We are also there most nights after hours to discuss stocks and trading strategies
Mike 13th,
What name do you use on covestor? I couldn’t find Mike 13th on there.
I trade with IB,they don’t like the idea of putting ones port out open to the public,they don’t allow it.
In fact they have beefed up their security with SCUR,IB sends you a security device from SCUR that you need to log onto every trading session and I love it.
I trust no one near my account,and neither does IB
it was one 50k print on nobl before open, that’s enough for you to put in a buy order basically right at the open? i dont get how you catch that :/
the chc trade i can see though :)
what happens when you put a buy order before mkt opens…does that execute right at 9.30 am price?
Because I know NOBL from the past…why I scan EVERY night.little hard pays off if you are serious…
http://greenonthescreen.blogsp.....a-try.html
I forget very few that hit a scan.I have too…I hate real “work”
Just checked back NOBL at 5.60 after hours.
I respect your trading skills Mike but I sure as heck have a hard time trying to decipher your posts. I get what you’re saying most of the time but you sound like a robot.
hey mike, i would like to follow you on your blog but your trades are over a year old, not updating anymore?
longshort,
if you tag it to allow trading outside Regular Trading Hours (RTH) your order is placed and can be executed in pre market hours (market or limit). If you tag it as only RTH the when the market opens you orders is placed. There is no garantee of getting any price. A limit is a limit and will only execute if you get hit. At the open a market order can get a very bad fill.
Mike has a chat room and archives the chats. Good info on that blog Mike, I need to do more screening and scanning. Great work.
how does it archive, do you have to log into the chat?
surprised to see you trade on earnings
but i understand all your reasoning, looking great so far
It takes a while to understand the terms and have everything make sense in the blog, but it’s worth it…a lot of it wasn’t written by Mike, but a guy named Muddy who taught Mike how to trade (and then he said Tim taught him how to short!). The most important posts are on the sidebar, all good reads.
After you read the blog, spend some time in the chat (and do it in that order, going in the chat room first won’t help much). I think you’ll see pretty quick that Mike13th is a rare example of not needing Covestor to prove one’s trading methods, it’s pretty awesome to just sit back and watch him at work.
I bought before close yesterday at 3.18 was glad to see this break out today.
NOBL: Earnings were phenomenal… should at least test yesterday’s high of 6.34… once we break that the squeeze to $7 is on IMO. Look for this thing to launch on the open.
I thank Mike_13th for his Pre list from Yesterday when this thing was under $4.00- NOBL that is
bing bing bing! here we go again for another ride on the sykes train.
new post:
http://www.timothysykes.com/ti.....ce-is-fun/
why don’t you ask everyone to tell you how many shares of NOBL they bought so we can figure out what percentage of the move up was due to the TIM PUMP- my guess is most of it
Johnny are you an idiot, or just partially one?
The stock has traded $950,000 so far today tim’s $5,000 in yesterday and $6,000 out today = $950,000-$6000 today = $944,000 left for today that must have been all his followers right???
idiot
yeah right vento, i already sold for 10% profits, sent out alert, my subscribers are selling too, price is holding up fine, u give me and my followers far too much credit, everyone has like 5,000 accounts lol
Do you establish a position in a stock before you recommend it to the people relying on your picks on this website. If you do then arent you relying on the subsequent intrest from the people following your advise on this site to enrich yourself?
mdc007 TIM went long on NOBL then sent out his alerts then guess what the price barely moved. THEN MR. Sykes sold his position then guess what? The price barely moved so NO Tim isnt looking only for his own pockets, he is coaching, teaching, training, and everything else he can to get a bunch of people who have limited knowledge and experience and showing them how they too can profit the American WAY. The longer that you have that defeatist attitude the longer your going to prevent opportunity, success, and money from coming your way.
I cant post questions on livestock
What is wrong
Just do the math. When you send out an alert to 300 subscribers. Let’s say each subscriber buys 1,000 shares, 300*1000=300K. Yesterday’s total volume was a little over 800K. I can only say that a large part of the volume was due to Tim’s e-mail. No real way around it.
Also notice on the 1-minute chart from yesterday afternoon how volume began to pick up around 3:45PM when it was trading around 5.02ish. No surprise that there was a rise from there as Tim subscribers ate up shares into the close.
But if it makes people money, more power to em.
That is not the issue. I am not talking about just this one pick. If the stock is illiquid, take USS for example, what chance does a subscriber have if TIM has already sold to get out of a stock like that. The performance is highly misleading when his subscribers dont have a snowballs chance to replicate the performance when he is frontrunning his own recomendations.
1000 shares at 5 bucks a pop, not everyone has a large enough account to replicate that buy, tim bought 4k shares, some of us may have bought a few hundred, i’d say out of the 800k volume, timalerts were maybe 100k of that, at best
Good point. His returns would probably be much different if he tried to enter a trade AFTER he sent out the alert.
IF you are talking about USS I can speak first hand and as a TIM ALERT memember that USS was a huge hit. He sent out the alert you reserve shares from your broker and at some point you as the individual investor have to decide when a good point is to enter. Tim will send his alert out when he enters but usually you can see already when the moment is taking place. Do the Tim Members have an impact YES but its minimal. I was a member when he only had 10 other members and to be honest it hasnt made an impact at all on my earnings. You have to remember when he gets out he leaves a lot of room for others to make money too. He almost always exits early. NOTHING MISLEADING. Again your highly suspecious outlook will prevent from not only trusting TIM as a coach but will prevent you from jumping in the MARKET. the same arguments you make against TIM you can say about the MARKET MOVERS that control a majority of stocks played on a daily basis.