Guess What I Was Thinking When I Read This Reader’s Comments?

Posted by timothysykes on Fri 25th of Jul, 2008 12:22:37 PM
  Tags:

A reader wrote me this:

…I am basically trading part time. I don’t plan on getting any fanfare or what not. I am just an average Joe with a wife and kid making 50k a year in the midwest. If I can average $100 a week it will be a success and greatly improve my financial situation. I am looking at this as taking a small investment with the opportunity to have fun and make some decent money on the side.

F%&* yes! That kind of small-time profiteering is exactly how you should view PennyStocking. Since it focuses on usually-illiquid-but-for-whatever-reason-now-liquid low priced stocks, the key is waiting for the most volatile/liquid plays to present themselves…

After all, we’re not dealing with the most actively stocks like Google Inc. (GOOG), Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI), Research In Motion Limited (USA) (RIMM), all of which are great for scalping, using leverage and trading daily. That’s what most stock raders trade and considering 90% of traders lose money–yes, that statistic stings you “pro traders”, doesn’t it?–you shouldn’t be thinking about doing anything most traders do (which applies to lying on message boards, bragging about phantom profits–yes, the truth stings, you “pro traders”, doesn’t it?

The one other thing I will say is not to expect daily, weekly, or monthly gains–forget about average profits, goals, timelines–I can only speak for myself, as always, but whenever I’ve added in expectations, its skewed my thinking and hurt my trading because I forced opportunities and entered into non-ideal trades just so I could reach my goals. Win or lose, they are bad trades and good lessons on what to avoid. The thing that’s worked best for me–which is somewhat surprising–is to think as if I’ll never do a trade again and that way I wait until the last possible minute to mae the trade because the setup is so ideal, I can’t help but be a part of it.

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  • The Chad
    $100 a week? Why not $100 a day?
  • YngvaiMalmsteve
    Great post.

    I know that I've been having more success trading less. I've averaged fewer trades per day/week this month, and I'm up 21% on the month, versus breaking even last month and being down the previous month (where I made many more trades).

    It pays to be picky.
  • The Chad
    The toughest thing starting out is managing your expectations. Additionally, it's even more difficult to grind out profits (after commissions)when you don't have that much in play.

    Thanks Tim Alerts... I'm getting there...
  • getshorty
    Reshorted 500 shares of IFC at 4.59 (after shorting at 4.36 and closing at 4.26 earlier).

    I am there with you Mike, hold on tight !!!

    By the way, how many shares you mean by 2 whole positions?
  • getshorty
    U can't hold IFC at 4.50 b*(&Tch, YOU ARE GOING DOWN!!!

    Can't you see the 1 min downlsoping triangle, sell your shares and let somebody else take the fall.
  • getshorty
    Told you so b*%&ch, and don't ever come back, but if you do... I'll be here waiting to take you back down !!!
  • mark johnson
    I'd be careful with IFC....It's my hometown bank in Columbus, Indiana....And That stock has always hung out at 20's 30-,and 40 since i can remember ....They have some good management and have made some sound decisions later...It's at 4.53 and climbing now Be careful...I wished I would have jumped on this for a long
  • mark johnson
    Instead i'm waiting on ABK dropped hard on me...
  • getshorty
    Thanks Mark.you may be right long term ( in which case you may as well be buying now) but for my time - span fundamentals like the one you are pointing are not of much use. You should not think what the market should be doing with a stock, but rather see what it IS doing.

    Wouldn't think of keeping the position other than intraday.
  • getshorty
    That's what I'm Talking About !!! closed my 500 shares for a quick $108 profit.

    Won't mind if it gaps up on Monday.

    Maybe it is a good long term long, I have no clue, for my tiny $16kish account am better off usinf my time to find hot plays rather than foundamentally sound stocks, will have to get to that game eventually, once my account becomes huge.
  • longshort28
    time to short MNLU?
  • TommyTim
    Short any financial you want. They will be sold off before end of day. No one is going to hold a financial name over the weekend especially with the new foreclosure report that came out.

    Foreclosures up 120%. Expected to hit 2,000,000 by end of year.

    1 in every 171 homes in the US has received a notice of default.

    Certain counties in Cali have a 1 in 25 default ratio.

    Best believe interest rates are going to be raised before the economy can pick up to fight inflation. More foreclosures that come to market the more banks become insolvent. Then it's a chain reaction death spiral to all other parts of the economy.

    Oil is the only issue I can't put a finger on. If the FEDS bail out the housing industry at a minimum cost so far of 1.3 trillion the worthless dollar will be offset with rising rates. I can see interest rates hitting 10% by 2010. Stock market is pretty much dead for the next 2 years just like the Nikkei and the Nasdaq. Nasdaq hasn't gained a penny from its losses in the last 8 years. Double digit interest rates could put oil under $100. Demand levels would pick up at these prices though so I see a floor of $100 for oil. If rates don't rise in 08 we should see 150 oil to close the year. The market is very close to crumbling. One day this year we'll encounter a 600-1000 point DOW dump.
  • getshorty
    Look who is back Tommy "I am right half of the time" Tim
  • YngvaiMalmsteve
    I looked for MNLU shares earlier with TOS and none were available.
  • getshorty
    thats right, no mnlu neither in TOS nor on IB
  • YngvaiMalmsteve
    I tried to find shares of GRH to borrow yesterday, this morning & later today and none were available for that one either
  • getshorty
    IB has some grh, but no firepower left on my ib acccount
  • TommyTim
    Check out the list I gave you yesterday of 10 stocks both long and short. I'd put the number at 100%. Look at it after a month though as I said I'm not a daytrader type person. My plays are based on 2-4 weeks.

    Following your trades today you've done well with your luck. Not following a thing Tim has taught you though. You're simply blind shorting which requires 0 level of talent.
  • getshorty
    Anyway, grh spread is brutal.
  • sniper6
    got an easy short for you. NFLD if you can find shares. Up 25% for no reason. Perennial loser.
  • getshorty
    I have shorted the IFM Spike once it started fading breaking intraday support, not tim play, technical play.
  • getshorty
    and by the way, this is a day trade forum.
  • getshorty
    Sniper, some NFLD shares available on Interactive Brokers.
  • YngvaiMalmsteve
    Shorty, how does shorting with IB compare to TOS? I don't have the cash right now to open an IB account but when I do I'm considering switching as they usually have more borrows available.
  • getshorty
    Usually it is easier to short with TOS, but once in a while you get shares from IB that TOS doesn't have (usually is the other way around) I wouldn't think of closing my TOS account, but found it great to have both open.
  • mgar
    TommyTim, what's your take on Apple then? "Throw money on it for a quick 5% profit on earnings"...Oh wait, Apple fell almost 12% on earnings. With all of your recommendations, I would say you are hovering right around being right about 50% of the time (kind of like flipping a coin). I like that you at least try to consider broader economic trends though. It shows that you've at least got something going on upstairs.
  • YngvaiMalmsteve
    What's the procedure to reserve shares with IB? Chat window? Some other method?
  • TommyTim
    Your second short was at 4.59 though. 4.50 was intraday support/resistant line. Nothing technical about your trade. If you shorted the second day high at 1 p.m of 4.75 after it failed to hit day high I'd say good technical trade.
  • TommyTim
    Mgar- I admitted to the mistake. The stock went up 20 points the following day so had you held 1 day later you still made a profit. I already went into detail about that. I said Apple would blow away numbers which they did by 19%. I also stated they might lowball future guidance which they always do as a potential downside. In retrospect knowing this I shouldn't have bought before earnings going with my own advice.

    Going after every mistake in a trade I make is rather childish. Tim shorted NTI at 11 and it went to 22 a few days later. Of course he covered for a profit before the spike Don't dwell on a mistake.

    GShorty called me out so I called him back. I didn't go mentioning he shorted ZYXI at 2.80 and it went over 4 like 2 days later. I said ZYXI is similar to IDAE which it turned out to be. Now I'm sure he covered on a pop over $3 so why would I call him out.

    The majority of you here are still just shorting blindly without regard to risk looking for a quick buck. You're overtrading and will end up like 98% of the other traders who lose money.
  • balls...or just plain nuts...
    MF lost its weeklong uptrend. Seems to be trying to crack 6.00 to the downside.
  • younggunz
    I said 100 a week and not 100 a day because I am keeping my expectations in check. I am only starting with $2k and already if I would have not played as scared as I normally do when I have more of a cushion away from the 2k minimum to short I would have made over $200.

    $100 a week if I don't spend any of it in a year is a lot of money for me and my family when it comes to residual income. That basically covers the college savings for my son and the one thats on the way, due end of October. I am not betting the farm on Tim by no means.

    I decided to take the money left over after a home improvement that I played with trading on my own before I started following Tim. I made money before and when i look back it was pretty high risk and I really didn't know what I was doing. I made good money on Chipotle and BWW. I made money on Crocs and took profit before they fell apart.

    I probably could have called it when they would fall apart when I saw kids snow boots at their booth and thought to get them for my son and found out they were like $60. A company that made it big selling cheap comfortable shoes now selling other lines at big bucks means they've strayed from their bread and butter. Kinda like Tim straying from pennystocking. I also shorted DNDN, a drug company that a co-worker was long on. I could have lost everything in my trading account if I was wrong on DNDN. I have lost money and since I have been so emotional trading in the past I get the fuck out fast.

    So my first year in Tim Alerts I will be happy with an average of $100 a week. By the end of the year I will probably have higher expectations. I hope to one day be able to make more money trading then I make at my regular job. I do not want to do this full time though...Too stressful to be banking on stocks as my main source of income.

    $100 a week means a healthy amount of money to have in an emergency fund. It means being able to free up other money to put towards my kids college. Being successful at this means has a lot of potential to do so many things to improve my families financial situation. Am I counting on it? No. I am going to try to do the best I can and learn as much as I can from someone that has shown me that he can repeat what he's done before to make money. If it doesn't work out i am not going to go spam everywhere calling Tim a fraud, I decided to try following someone else's opinion that does more research then I can myself. If I lose money by doing what he does its my own fault for not taking the time to do things for myself.
  • $100 a week? Off of $2000? You call a 200% annual return keeping your expectations in check? Don't count on it, but best of luck.
  • getshorty
    Yngvai, not such thing as reserving shares on IB, I just short them with a limit way higher than trading price.
  • getshorty
    Gunz, I'll recommend you put some more money into it cause commissions are going to eat you alive if you trade frequently with small amounts.
  • getshorty
    Tommy, Thanks for calling me on my lost, which I have already admitted.

    #

    35getshorty(TIMBUCKS: $154)

    July 23rd, 2008 at 11:26 am

    Tim is right when he says his ultimate goal is for us not to need him anymore, Yesterday and today I reserved Zyxi and MKYT even before the alert. Think I may be getting it with these patterns.

    Shorted 200 shares of mkyt at 5.25 (should have known better and shorted the whole 1000 shares at this point) Then I shorted my remaining 800 shares at 4.95. COvered 500 shares at 5.43.
    Still holding 500 shares short waiting for the afternoon fade (or maybe dive, you never know with these pumpies)

    Day would have been even better if it was not because I was still 1500 short of zyxi, covered 700 shares at 2.83 and still holding 800 shares short, now floating around 3.02-3.08.

    Account back up where it was before my previous 2 days screw ups. But have learned a lot in the way.
    #


    I am not posting for bragging rights, which I don;t deserve (yet) but for getting feedback on my trades, which I try to do based on technical patterns, which I'm still learning and studying.

    THe reason I called on you is because lots of newbies here may trade on you recommendation and will both loose money and get discouraged of the game. Which is against the whole point of this post.

    By the way, nobody dares to trade based on what I say .
    I AM NOBODY !!!! JUST A GUY WITH A NICK CALLED GET SHORTY !!!
  • younggunz
    Thanks for the good luck wishes. Yes it would be smarter to make the account bigger. The recommended amount is 3.5K. I may inject more to do so but I am going to see how it goes this month. I am throwing a lot at chance but I am cautiously optimistic. I guess we'll see how things go over this month. If tim has a good month I hope to have one too.
  • YngvaiMalmsteve
    Shorty, what I meant was, do you need to chat with someone (either online or on the phone) to borrow shares that are hard to borrow like you do with TOS?

    Yeah, I usually do the high limit thing with TOS myself. I could do the "take a note" thing with the chat guy, but then you have to pull up the chat again when you want to enter your position, and you have to be quick in this game and that takes too much time for me.
  • YngvaiMalmsteve
    YoungGunz, I would agree with getshorty that the commissions might eat into your gains with the small account. I used to work with about a $2500 account, and I struggled to get anywhere with it. When I added more money, things got easier.
  • getshorty
    Yngvai, what I mean is that you just have to place a manual order, just as you would do for any manual trade, choose the stock, set the limit price, press the sell button and thats it.

    If the shares are available it will show like processing, if not, you;ll get a popup saying that they are not available.

    I started with IB and then, on Tim's recommendation opened the TOS account, which has allowed me to short a lot of shares. It has also allowed me to net positions between accounts avoiding PDT. (Instead of closing a short position on the same day, I can go long on the other broker, this also allows me to keep the shorted stock in case I want to reshort).

    HOwever, not doing the netting thing that much this days cause canada based TOS accounts are not subject to PDT restricitions.
  • Mike_13th
    Reshorted 500 shares of IFC at 4.59 (after shorting at 4.36 and closing at 4.26 earlier).

    I am there with you Mike, hold on tight !!!

    By the way, how many shares you mean by 2 whole positions?
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    GetShorty.
    Another nice trade by you IFC short at 4.59,closed at 4.14

    One position for me is around,depending on price stock and how well I know it from the past,between $4k and $5k worth,so 2 fulls is $8k to $10K worth.
  • Mike_13th
    getshorty(TIMBUCKS: $159)

    July 25th, 2008 at 4:42 pm

    Yngvai, not such thing as reserving shares on IB, I just short them with a limit way higher than trading price.
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    EXACTLY!
  • Mike_13th
    "You
  • Sam Johnson
    This guy should trade futures! He could make that trading meats in five to ten minutes.
    Same thing for all of you, if you have 10,000 or more the grains are where you want to be.
    It's nothing to profit $500 a day! No offense Tim, but this stock b.s. is for the birds. If you want to make some real money email me...you have the address.
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Date Stock Buy Sell Net
Nov 19 AENY $2.80 $3.02 $1148
Nov 18 NLST $4.16 $4.40 $947
Nov 18 IMGG $1.42 $1.64 $2094
Nov 17 NLST $5.04 $5.59 $2195
Nov 13 VRMLQ $21.50 $22.97 $2901
Nov 11 EONC $2.61 $2.80 $687
Nov 10 EONC $2.74 $3.36 $9784
Nov 6 QXM $4.31 $4.80 $1936
Nov 4 COT $8.66 $8.88 $642
Nov 4 QXM $4.61 $4.89 $822
Oct 30 DDRX $25.70 $26.53 $812
Oct 29 CTDC $4.00 $4.42 $781
Oct 26 AWSL $3.24 $4.10 $2516
Oct 23 RODM $5.27 $5.23 $301
Oct 22 AMLM $2.69 $2.97 $820
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Oct 20 CBOU $8.93 $9.06 $243
Oct 16 VRMLQ $16.79 $18.65 $2773
Oct 13 YONG $11.05 $11.66 $1202
Oct 13 NPHC $0.59 $0.71 $583
Oct 12 IMGG $0.60 $0.70 $682
Oct 9 ZAGG $5.50 $6.10 $2380
Oct 7 GVBP $0.03 $0.27 $702
Oct 1 NPHC $0.70 $0.85 $1482

Total: $98,094 (681%)