Two TIMalerts: Why I Bought Energy Recovery, Inc. (ERII) & Tried Shorting New Century Energy Corp. (NCEY)

Posted by timothysykes on Tue 8th of Jul, 2008 05:28:19 PM

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Here are today’s trades, and almost trades, told below by the unedited emails that went out to TIMalert subscribers today (and subscriber’ registrations will be activated tonight for the TIMalert subscribers only members website (TimAlerts.com) that will/should be fully functional tomorrow with the near real-time posting of any emailed alerts and commenting capabilities)

(every one else, don’t worry, TimothySykes.com will always remain free and open, think TheStreet.com & RealMoney.com-type model)

Today, basically NCEY was unborrowable to short (did anybody get in on that?) and ERII broke out as I was wanted/expected, up $2 or 20% from my alert, but it dipped a bit first and since I suck at/have no confidence buying stocks, I took a quick $150 loss…I’d do it again cuz you gotta remember with my account this small, I’m all about safety first…of course if the Pattern Day Trading Rule wasn’t in effect, I could easily have gotten in again when it broke the $11.30-$11.40 area…but no whining because look at these subscribers testimonials (you guys matter infinitely more than my own little account)!!

“I’m up 1200 so far on ERII. Great pick!” –bestdeception

“made 200 dollar on ERII :)” –marketgirl

“$500 profit on erii…tim alert. i’m up $1400 in my first 2 days of tim alerts” –Jonescade

“Tim, thanks for the ERII….made about $800, easily could have been $1200″ –Aaron

“Hurrrrraaayyyyy, I bought TIMalerts yesterday for $29.95. I made $326 this morning on ERII” –Ron

“Made 250$ on ERII. Thanks to TIMalerts..Was tentative and opened 200 shares..still it worked!” –Seattle Guy

“I had only 500 shares, banked total $1035 from ERII (after comm. & fees).” –Ryan

10:15am:

i just bought 500 shares of cool water energy recent IPO ERII on the breakout at 11.29 (poor execution)…11 was previous high, 10ish was the low and its only been on the market for 3 days…overvalued (15 cents/share in earnings next year?) but profitable growing at 90%/year….hot sector…superman pick…$1 downside risk, just added important board member today, if this thing gets momentum, $2-$5 upside…i like the risk/reward

thank u guys for registering for the new TIMalerts subscribers-only website, people who just signed up today, register at http://www.TIMalerts.com by later today/tonight, u’ll be able to see all posts/updates and comment/discuss

10:52am

saw it crack under $11 so i cut my losses quickly..shows u how much of a wuss i am (which is a good thing when trading these stocks)…wouldnt be so scared if i had a good execution int he 11-11.10 range but my entry was so bad, cant risk this one collapsing in a nasty market…even if the downside is limited…really thought this would pop more in the morning, volume is fading…longer term people will probly be fine (it actually is holding the $11 breakout level quite well…for now), but this just aint me, i need immediate gratification…

potential GIGM short later today (TIMcomment: I don’t short into strength, I like that it kept going, tomorrow might short, or the next day)

11:36am:

Terrible timer TIM strikes again! i’m telling u, i’m great at identifying setups, just suck at timing the trades themselves…this is why i’ a blogger/newsletter writer/teacher rather than a hedge fund manager…life could be worse….glad several of u are took me up on my initial alert at $11.30 and ignored my wussie-exit and holding this stock, one guy made $500, another $700 and yet another $2k–please post all your gains on my blog at http://www.timothysykes.com so i can highlight them.

and for those of u who sold alongside me, its not the end of the world, this is how i got to be up 70% over the past few months, cutting losses quickly…it might be gutless, but its safe…u choose your own style, either way we’re all gonna crush the 90% of traders who lose

1:16pm:

just had a nasty financial obligation filing, aka toxic filing with laurus, a PIPE fund that loans failing companies $…this stock has climbed a ton, this is horrific news…i dont even know if i can find shares to short, but i’m lookin

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080708/ncey.ob8-k.html

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Related Reading

TIMalerts 2 Month Review, Let’s See How Everyone’s Fared August 12, 2008
A Review Of My Swine Flu Trades, Made A Thousand Bucks But Mostly Screwed It Up! May 6, 2009
Boo Hoo, It’s Been 6 Days Since I Traded, Here’s My Response: August 7, 2008

McLarty

Yo TIM, like I said, in real-time today, nice work on the ERII call. Too bad you didn't hang on. But, you have to admit, my call at 12:20 saying $13 is expensive - was AWESOME too - did you see that? http://twitter.com/jmclarty/statuses/852955619

I'm a value/fundamental guy, I could probably help you with your exits...that's what told me $13 was expensive.

havingsomefun

Have enjoyed reading everyone's (well, except for the foul-mouthed bashers) posts. Figured I'd start to contribute. Made my first venture into the dark world of penny stocks today. Went long on AKYI. Chart setting up nicely for break out. Busted through 1-year resistance level on heavy volume the past 2 days. Also, positive news late in the day increases likelihood of gap up tomorrow.

getshorty

McLarty, I don't get it, all this companies are shit, how you say you are a value guy, it is too expensive at $13, at$ 12, at$11 at $10, at $5, the name of the game is how much more ridicolously expensive they are going to get. If you have some sort of method to say that $ 13 is too expensive and 11 is not for a company with NO earnings, please let me know.

On my side, it looks to me you just had a good guess.

getshorty

Tried to short ncey, no shares available whatsoever, life is hard.....

getshorty

Don't forget to put me in your testimonials,
"Before Tim Alerts my life sucked, now that I got Tim Alerts it still sucks, but at least I am $ 310 richer !!! "

made $ 310 in erii, looks like at least am going in the right direction.

McLarty

GetShorty, the method is - reading up on stock, reading SEC filings until you're blue in the face, being ahead of everybody else, having a fairvalue range memorized by understanding discounted cash flows and their associated present value, along with good connections to real-time news and watching other tickers in the industry...AND having good guesses :) Find either one of the blogs I write, I was getting informed on ERII a month ago, waiting for this IPO.

And you're wrong, they do have earnings. I believe $0.13 per diluted share. I'm not sure why you think they don't have any earnings.

Anyway...I'm out, I don't belong in this domain, giving lessons to guys with no names. All the best to you Getshorty.

getshorty

Mc Larty, I have finished three graduated courses on discounted cash flows, am an economist, level 3 cfa candidate, 3 months from getting my MBA in Finance from top 5% school. I do know how to use discounted cash flows, that is why I do know they ain't worth shit for this kind of companies.

Good luck to U2

HoustonBIZ

lol... owned.

Smok

You shuold check out McLarty's blogspot. I dont know but i can already tell that guy would piss me off. That Reject is gonna come here and talk crap and blow his own horn..."O Look at me I made a GREAT(lucky) guess a stock will fall. HAHAHA ok ok, here goes another guess...GOOG is gonna fall to a penny stock tomorrow, DANG i rule! Fag, go blow ur horn on ur own page.

havingsomefun

Here is a link to an informative video chart analysis that adds to my earlier post about AKYI. Yeh, I'm guessing Tim will torch me for pumping this bottom hugging gunk. Probably deservedly so. However, the break out potential from a technical perspective is still worth a listen. You decide. However, news late today fueled a decent upward movement into the close. Admittedly, I'm in today at $0.02. Good luck.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/playvideo....

donnacap

How does END look?

Mike_13th

Hey Timmay ERII was a no brainer,I saw this 33 mins before open.
It was an IPO upping in pre market.
You should know what that means, "JUMP IT!"
You'll say no doubt I got in too early for lack of confirmation but I got in RIGHT on open and NEVER sold near hod's.
In 10.45 out on trailer 12.85,easy bucks.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

(Jul 08-08:57) 13th_FLOOR: gm,, ipo ERII pre list
(Jul 08-09:48) 13th_FLOOR: ipo mentioned ERII 11
(Jul 08-10:13) 13th_FLOOR: yeah got ERII,ipo on pre leader boards usually run decent

YngvaiMalmsteve

You guys should check out the UVSE message board at IHUB. Total chaos over there after today's tankage. Glad I escaped with a solid profit on that one. Hopefully UFGemini, BenBien, TomT, and whoever else was in it got out with profit as well.

chasdabigone

Look at RNN - looks like a good short

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rnn

PCola

Hey getshorty, when did you take Level 3?

Mike_13th

speaking of RNN I was short from 3.80 to 1.25 today and flipped long 1.20 to take it at 1.35
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

(Jul 08-10:27) 13th_FLOOR: flipped RNN long
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Ones with this dayrange in the last few days( ADR10 )are hard to pass up for me as a day trader,either long or short

Mike_13th

RNN has the highest day range now at 22.38% with stocks with volume.
I do not pass those by.
RDN TGC ROYL ABK FPP ARTE HYHY MMPI NYNY are distant 2nd's.

Played RDN ABK ARTE long today and HYHY short.

Bought NYNY eod on it's spike/reversal right near close,it's gonna gap open right back to middle of it's day range tomorrow if all holds true from the past imo.

chasdabigone

ABK "hopeful" about financing and up 50% on hope!

timothysykes

awesome mike, i'll leave the HODs to yyou, gotta get u posting your lists here! Mikealerts?

Yngvai--fuck UVSE and all the moron believers, the people who buy the hype without a quick exit strategy deserve to lose

Mike_13th

It was only a day trade,short biased tomorrow ABK MBI

lakhanin

Hey Tim,

Could you tell me where I can get my hands on the software on your computer screen you are repeatedly shown using in Wall street Warriors?

thx.

-a huge fan

Ben_Bien

Tim, don't you teach that we should buy on the way up of the hype and short on the way down as volume deflates and momentum dies? So with UVSE, are you saying fuck UVSE entirely or only fuck UVSE if one does not have a quick exit strategy? Yng and others made some clean money yesterday and today including myself, but I actually re-entered more funds into the position on the grounds that UVSE's MACD line crossed the indicator line as detailed by Yng in his blog. I plan to exit UVSE tomorrow if there is any further sign of weakness, so I'm asking if you're just anti-UVSE all together or if you're just anti-not-having-an-exit-strategy-kinda-like-those-who-hold-out-hope-for-some-miraculous-plus-3000%-return-kinda-thing?

Ben_Bien

and where is Tony Ellis? the beginner PennyStocking students need the presence of the Grand Master to remind them of what it is like to actually do PennyStocking right. Ideally, since I've already bought your DVD, I want to avoid having to rely on TIMAlerts, though I completely see the ridiculously accurate calls you've been making.

Ben_Bien

aye Ryan, so did you end up getting TIMAlerts or what?? because I was sniffing around Tim's site and did not catch wind of ERII until it already struck $13

timothysykes

lakhanin, company is out of business that used that software, its basically just REDIplus

ben, i buy hype stocks that are maing new highs---see ERII, i'd never touch a penny waaaay off its highs being touted by a bunch of Neanderthals on message boards....screw clean money, i dont gamble, i play the odds

YngvaiMalmsteve

UVSE is not Tim's type of play. However, I disagree that it was a gamble...there were solid technical and other reasons (like end of dilution) for entering the play. But the smart ones, like me, 13th, Ben, etc had a solid exit strategy to lock in profits. The stupid ones are still arguing over on IHUB.

Get Shorty..... Reloaded

Pcola, June 2009, just wrote LII last June

Tony Ellis

I'm on vacation. Be back week after next.

havingsomefun

Hey, for you guys that like/liked UVSE so much, consider the chart for AKYI. Looking for it to soar once it busts through $.025. Another runner....

PCola

Shorty, do you mean this June like a month ago, or a year ago? I took level 2 a month ago.

younggunz

Tim, with your TIM alerts do you tell them that those stocks are on your radar before hand? Neither of those stocks were in your morning watchlist for Tuesday. I have noticed a few times where you've made trades on stocks that you didn't have in your morning lists. Not saying there's anything wrong with that, I perfectly understand that for many stocks there's no way to foretell based on the previous close and premarket activity whether or not they're going to enter into the ideal patterns that you look to trade. I was just curious if new ones make it on your short list whether or not you send out a heads up to your alert subscribers so they can research, reserve shares, and/or prepare for you to make a move on them.

timothysykes

YG, i try to cover/anticipate all trades, but sometimes stuff pops up--ERII due to technical breakout, NCEY due to news...the TIMalerts site is jumping, already 14 comments on my morning watchlist today, i'll be responding everywhere but if u're not signed up, u def. miss out on the discussion from people who are making enough $ to pay for their subscription

PCola

Hey Tim, did you get my e-mail yesterday? I registered for the TimAlerts site with the wrong e-mail address by accident. Anyway to fix tha so you can send my password to the right address?

bestdeception

Hey Tim,

It says my username isn't correct when I try to login in, but I've got the email you sent me w/ the info. Just trying to get logged in.

BD

timothysykes

email admin@timothysykes.com with your issues, might take some time, 200+ TIMalert subscribers, first day of a new site

new post:

http://www.timothysykes.com/timsykes/2008/07/09...

YngvaiMalmsteve

havingsomefun, I don't like AKYI as a play. First, volume is pathetic for a penny stock. Second, the breakout didn't hold.

craig2026

Tim,

I am a subscriber to timalerts. What is the address to the other website. Do we need a password username?

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See Tim's full bio HERE. Tim turned a few thousand dollars into a few million by taking small gains time after time on hundreds of volatile penny stocks, discovering that his trading strategy, while consistently successful, works best for those with smaller accounts.

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Hard work to learn how the greatly misunderstood niche of penny stocks provides opportunities every now and then on which you should pounce.

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Long story short, wait for stocks that are extremely volatile - for whatever reason - and then aim to take small profits (between 10 and 50% within a few hours, days or weeks) here and there, either from betting on higher or lower prices (yes, you can make $ betting on lower prices, it's called Shortstocking (learn more HERE).

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TIM Trades

View All

Date	Stock	Buy	Sell	Net
Nov 6	QXM	$4.31	$4.80	$1936
Nov 4	COT	$8.66	$8.88	$642
Nov 4	QXM	$4.61	$4.89	$822
Oct 30	DDRX	$25.70	$26.53	$812
Oct 29	CTDC	$4.00	$4.42	$781
Oct 26	AWSL	$3.24	$4.10	$2516
Oct 23	RODM	$5.27	$5.23	$301
Oct 22	AMLM	$2.69	$2.97	$820
Oct 22	USEG	$6.12	$6.09	$85
Oct 20	CBOU	$8.93	$9.06	$243
Oct 16	VRMLQ	$16.79	$18.65	$2773
Oct 13	YONG	$11.05	$11.66	$1202
Oct 13	NPHC	$0.59	$0.71	$583
Oct 12	IMGG	$0.60	$0.70	$682
Oct 9	ZAGG	$5.50	$6.10	$2380
Oct 7	GVBP	$0.03	$0.27	$702
Oct 1	NPHC	$0.70	$0.85	$1482

Total: $92,304 (644%)