My Latest Successful Scalp Trade: PokerTek Inc (PTEK)
Posted by timothysykes on Thu 5th of Jun, 2008 10:42:37 AM
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Shorting a spike like PTEK may sound simple—stock up big on hype and fluff news, me think it go down, me short—but outside of snakeoil world, there’s a few more real world variables to consider. Of course, when I shorted 1,000 shares into a spike at $5.60 (already off its highs though, reducing my risk of further spikage) this morning, I thought it would go down—there was a wall of sellers behind me, buying volume had diminished and if it could take out morning support at $5.40, it could really tank and perhaps go negative on the day cracking $5.15 and then it’d be tough to get much past $4.80-$5 considering that was yesterday’s support.
Buuut it was still green on the day, it was a morning short going for a quick reversal so it wasn’t ideal, and there were big block buyers. Oh yeah and there was that little thing where I have about a dozen writing assignments due in the next 2-3 days—blog posts, AOL & Yahoo articles and LiveStock scripts—so I wouldn’t be able to watch this all day like I typically do.
The good news is I was dead on—within 10 minutes, sellers gradually built strength and got determined enough to take out the buyers at $5.40…expecting to cover into panicking longs who would be fleeing, I placed my buy to cover order at $5.16—just above yesterday’s closing price. My reason—it’s tough to go from big up to big down, unless the situation is truly ideal, so I figured I wouldn’t risk it…a $450ish profit would be enough for me.
But when a few longs did panic, a big order at $5.20 held and it never got to my buy point. As I saw all those sells into $5.20, I coulda woulda shoulda upped my limit to $5.21, a mere $50 less and I probly woulda gotten my entire order.
But I didn’t and when big buy orders of 5,000 and 15k—probly fakes meant to scare shorts—came in in the $5.20s and $5.30s, I said screw it, tae my profit and get some writing done, covering into the ask at $5.40, a safe $180 profit after commissions.
So you can see the trade was good and bad—good cuz I used the variables to tell me a morning drop was likely so it was okay to bend my rules about waiting to short until the afternoon (I can always reshort if perfect fading action occurs) but bad cuz I got greedy and refused to budge from my unrealistic exit price.
Right now the stock is gyrating between $5.20 and $5.40, lots of big buy orders, sellers determined, still green on the day, I hope we get a spike to make the pattern last one more day, but it’s not looking good. While everyone likes to say “oh, it’ll be under $4 by the end of the week” I prefer to focus on predicting small moves, with the chance that they’ll become big ones. This is much safer and more probable than aiming for $1.50/share profits right off the bat.
PS ROYL did crack support at $8.80, but it was a messy breakdown–meaning lots of buyers everywhere blocking the path to lower pirces–and it didn’t get much further…which actually is a buy signal as now it’s already spiked 75 cents higher…gotta go both ways baby
UPDATE: Reshorted 1,000 shares when it did in fact look like it was gonna go negative on the day at $5.20…got the gradual fade action, took it all the way down to $4.70, but since I was too greedy on the last crack, I didn’t have an open buy order, so I missed that drop, buyers came in on the bid, I covered into the ask at $4.90ish…another $300 in profits for the day…$150 or so in missed profits…but it goes to show how you can make $500/day without being anywhere close to perfect!
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- Too Many Stocks To Keep Track Of Yet Again | TIM - Timothy Sykes
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TIM Trades
View All| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2 | KIRK | $10.60 | $11.53 | $1377 |
| June 30 | ISRL | $107.97 | $118 | $985 |
| June 24 | LZB | $4.53 | $4.81 | $1240 |
| June 17 | GWSC | $1.86 | $2.76 | $2679 |
| June 15 | SHZ | $1.66 | $1.83 | $280 |
| June 15 | SPNG | $0.11 | $0.18 | $630 |
| June 12 | JAZZ | $2.84 | $3.26 | $380 |
| June 12 | MAPP | $9.68 | $10.07 | $565 |
| June 8 | HEB | $3.00 | $4.18 | $334 |
| June 3 | GROW | $8.64 | $8.96 | $740 |
| June 3 | SYMX | $1.21 | $1.11 | $940 |
| June 1 | USCN | $0.55 | $0.86 | $260 |
Total: $65,674 (421%)
new post- missed the last one. WTF are those cheatin’ fucksticks at AQQ up to???!!!
Oh, they don’t know a thing…I’m calling these pricks out, they’re fulla shit!!
reshort PTEK at 5.20, took it out, niiiice, so much for writing today!
Covered Gro at 6.10 for a $400 profit probably left to early but I will take smaller profits over losses any day
Trying to scalp FPP shorted 2000 shares at 5.2
covered PTEK reshort at 4.89ish, another $300, another $500 day, wooooh ooooo
Damn…my buy order for NTI at 16.00 didn’t get filled
Wow look at NTI had taken them off my radar screen.
Hey, tried to re-register but can’t re-use my username or email. Can you kick my registration out of the system yourself or send me a temp password or is it all hands off on your end?
young gunz, i’ll have my webmaster contact u
NTI is why when u short, u just gotta get out if it doesnt act perfectly
Glad I got out of NTI the other day
shorted ROYL over night should have gotten out when it hit 8.56, my buy limit was at 8.55. got caught in the squeeze in 8.85 out 9.46
AQQ pure short potential. 25 dollar stock last week with a few 0 volume days this month. This fits the Sykes mold. No breakdown yet so hold on till you see a downtrend.
GRO squeezing…glad I’m not in it.
Forgot to mention the spread on that is $1.90. LOL
Sykes, why again would SQNM not be a perfect afternoon fade? I’m lookin…and I’m a likin.
Rambone,
you get the front, I’ll get the back, AQQ is gonna feel some serious pain.
Sniper,
LOL. Hope she doesn’t kick us in the balls while we sandwich her.
moates, get the DVD, u need to understand these patterns better
Already $9 below today’s high on a plus 175 afternoon? Not too hard to borrow… TARGET ACQUIRED.
help me create tomorrow’s livestock show:
http://www.timothysykes.com/20.....livestock/
anyone looking to short gro here? it is the only stock i can short shares on.
i guess not…
Short HOTT 6.21. Same store sales down. Up 20% on an upgrade.
Tim, while you’re discussing issues with Pallian, could you mention that your new site crashes the shit out of my iPhone.
Anyone else having that problem?
Wooo hooo go Tim theres hope for us after all!!
Your site also crashes the shit out of the new Firefox on my Mac. ;(
Works fine on my Windows comp though.
What version of firefox are you using? I have the latest version of firefox on my mac and it seems to work fine. Email me at admin@timothysykes.com
NTI just took off to 17.9 on no news. possible short for tmr?
Its Firefox 3.0. It’s still beta version so that could be why, but I havent had crashes on other sites but this one.
Moates,
it gapped up from successful test results, which is strong, and today it followed through being strong in the morning and floating around highs the whole day. it’s strong, there is no evidence of a fade. and it’s not really a pump because of the type of news.
now near 52 week highs.