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Posted 3 months, 17 days ago.

Coulda Woulda Shoulda: When Life Makes You Miss Multi-Day Breakouts & Some Other Stocks To Watch

Tags: AOL, Breakouts, Fess Up Time, Manipulation, Patterns To Buy, Potential Plays

Fess Up Time: Don’t ya hate when you put a stock on your watchlist, tell yourself you’ll trade it if it acts a certain way, but when that special price action occurs, for some reason, you’re not watching it? I’m sure there are those out there who don’t make such bush league mistakes, but I’m not one of them.

Thanks to the popularity of my latest AOL article—about how Amazon has tried blackmailing small publishers like me–I’ve been talking to a couple of reporters—surprise—and much of that talk happens during the trading day, causing me to miss more than a few potential trades. Oh yeah and incessant blogging doesn’t help.

Now, I hate buying breakouts—they move too slowly, happen to stocks that are too expensive or retrace/fakeout too often, so out of all the stocks below I really only regret missing out on NCEN, because that my friends is the f&^$en Mona Lisa of technical breakouts

NCEN–probly going to $3+, easy easy easy easy easy easy easy easy easy 30-50 cents/share, or 10-20%, buy on the intraday break of $2.50, predictable predictable predictable predictable predictable gain. An infinitely better trader than me, Fous, nailed it again. (I’m not only an affiliate, I’m even considering signing up for his stock picking service!) As did some of my DVD students…those who can’t do, teach!

ncen

SOLF—nice multi-day breakout, but where to now? Solid resistance in the high $15s

solf

AKNS—just keeps going, aka why you don’t short strong stocks UNTIL there’s weakness

akns

YGE—strong multi-day breakout, don’t even think about shorting

yge

TSL—strong, but lots of resistance coming up, still, don’t even think about shorting

tsl

CSIQ, ASTI upcoming

Watching NTWK HYTM EPEX for more gains before I short

EXFO you don’t short cuz of meaningful news, in the form of strong earnings

Last but certainly least—legitimacy-wise—3 days ago, I posted HYBR was getting spammed big-time, 43% drop since, too bad no shares available to short!

hybr2

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Related Reading

Manipulation Monday: A Dozen Stocks To Watch, Some Breakouts Look Interesting June 16, 2008
Hot Stocks: 7 Solar Stocks To Day Trade aka How I Will Short Them! March 27, 2008
14 Hot Stocks: How Their Charts Look And How I’ll Play ‘Em April 6, 2008

50 Responses

1timsykes

April 3rd, 2008 at 8:51 am

Tony Ellis, I’ll live vicariously through you, tell me you loaded up on NCEN and made 10x the DVD cost!
2Gary

April 3rd, 2008 at 8:53 am

What is your guys plays today? I am looking at COT to take a fall today. aAready 10 min into the day and almost no volume! Might be the day it will run down.

This i would call the pump…maybe the dump is coming.

What do you think tim?
3timsykes

April 3rd, 2008 at 8:55 am

i see no great setups, COT could tank, but only if it cracks under $3.25 first, which it held extraordinarily well
4Max

April 3rd, 2008 at 8:57 am

I’ve been short COT since yesterday morning @ 3.48

I thought about taking my losses, but the failed breakout to new highs yesterday afternoon has kept me in.

however, I don’t like the level 2 action at all, neither today nor yesterday
5Gary

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:01 am

Max….While this pig is dumping down. Could you let me know what you are looking at in the level 2 that you don’t like. Just trying to learn. Thanks.

Tim..please feel free to jump in. Reading level two charts should be a post.
6Tony Ellis

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:02 am

10K @ 3.35 out half 2.96 -2.98 holding rest for a possible run over 3
7Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:04 am

TIM, You said don’t hink of shorting TSL. But looks like many are shorting already pushing the stock down.. ?!
8Tony Ellis

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:05 am

2.35 sorry, also bought DSTI @ 3.35
9Max

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:06 am

I just don’t like how both the sellers and buyers of this stock are very flighty, and there tends to be more support just below the bid than there is resistance above the ask - although it looks like all heavy buyers under 3.51 from this morning have left the building

seems like lots of fake bids, with the occasional seller trying to sneak in

buyers quickly jump out of the woodwork at new lows also
10Tony Ellis

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:07 am

What do you think of HOKU?
11Gary

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:08 am

That help a liitle… Thanks Max
12InvestorsLive.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:09 am

AKNS going to be a good short Tim! Nice chart

Thanks
13Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:10 am

TIM, is it time to jump to TSL. Looks like its hititng hard on the resistance..
14InvestorsLive.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:13 am

Tony- Nice chart on HOKU, always seems to play real nice it’s on my radar for a break of 9. Extremely low volume though compared to the days where it has big moves
15InvestorsLive.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:15 am

Tony - nice pay day on NCEN - great job
16timsykes

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:16 am

no don’t short random ass patterns like HOKU

TSL, who cares about this little dip, chart doesnt support much downside theory
17Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:17 am

Tony, Are you in on DSTI?! It looks like a nice uptrend chart.
18Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:25 am

TIM, I was watching CSIQ since it gone low to $16. Couldn’t get in at that time for long?! It broke the resistance and moving up.. Next resistance seems to be $28 or so. Do you think it will go that far?!
19InvestorsLive.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:27 am

Tim any thoughts on VRTX? Would you like to see another spike out of it, or just stay away? Its up 100% in the past week or 2 but very well could consolidate and spike again
20Tony Ellis

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:27 am

DSTI still holding….HOKU wasn’t interested in shorting. Possible long if breaks 9 on strong volume.
21timsykes

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:31 am

hoku, vrtx, asti, grmn, csco, good, rimm, all too random for me, no pumps, no pure breakouts, avoid them all unless u NCEN-type breakouts or REED-like pops
22lmsmith

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:40 am

I am still holding my orignal SHORT of 500 shares at $8, added 500 shares more at $8.50 now this pos will take a dive….
23newTrader

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:47 am

Is anyone long on CDS? Looks like a strong climb.
24Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 9:57 am

CDS, looks poised for nice up movement.. but not real good volume or movement.
25traderjunkie

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:00 am

TIM, Here comes COT, to your level
26Tony Ellis

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:01 am

out DSTI 3.8
27Max

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:02 am

… and the buyers pop out of the woodwork again
28Gary

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:05 am

Max…I think they will get taken out again. But I see what you mean.
29Max

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:05 am

… and are gone again - will they ever decide what price is low enough to buy at? :)
30The Barber

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 am

ASTI SPUMANTI BIG BOY!!! SAY GOODBYE ANYDAY NOW!!! PROBABLY TODAY INTO TOMORROW…HA HA HA .. WAITING PATIENTLY..LOL
31Max

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:14 am

out COT @ 3.35 - no idea what’s going to happen now, although the longer term trend is down
32Gary

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:16 am

Max…what!!! This thing is droping! You now where the buyer that came out of the wood work!

Nice job on leaving money on the table. What was your profit?
33Gary

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 am

Looks like 3.30 is the price to break for COT!
34Max

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 am

I am trading a very small account somewhat conservatively - I was short 300 shares @ 3.48 so I made $39 profit (which was greater than my R value of around $30 for this trade)

granted, I could have squeezed a few extra dollars out, but that sort of thinking gets me in trouble

as Tim is saying, 3.25 is a very important price point

I prefer remaining safe and re-entering if warranted on this one

I’m okay with being wrong on this one - I’ll take the peace of mind realized profits gives me

also, the trade I was making, the REAL price point to be short at was 3.55-3.58 - I missed this by a good margin
35Gary

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 am

Very nice at sticking you your game plan!!! TWO BIG THUMBS UP!
36Max

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:50 am

anyone else watching BPAX? the resistance it faces at $4.50 (still off its recent high today of 4.56) is tempting to short into, but it has been in an uptrend since its $4 low on monday

I really want to short it, but it would almost make more sense to go long on a pullback or breakout (seems like limited downside at this point)

any thoughts?
37KFisher

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:55 am

Max,
I was rather tempted to buy BPAX bitch today around 4.22, but the bitch left w/o me. It might go above $5, just my pure guess.
38vijai - moneyreallymatters.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 10:59 am

BPAX has a 200 MA crossing right at 4.84, a big resistance..
39Andrew

April 3rd, 2008 at 11:02 am

That huge volume up day after the stock already jumped from 2-4 looks like the last of the longs piling in. Until today it looked like it was breaking down. But, now it looks like its consolidating. If it does breakout its got a lot of downward pressure till 6. I’m waiting for another big move in any direction before I make a move. Hard to tell if a pull back is really a pullback or the stock breaking down. Anyone else?
40Intelinside

April 3rd, 2008 at 11:02 am

The way BPAX acting lately, it might cross that 200 DMA in a heartbeat and closes above $5.
41Andrew

April 3rd, 2008 at 11:05 am

And who the hell is keeping RC Cola and Diet Rite above 3.25-3.30?
42vijai - moneyreallymatters.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 11:21 am

I see the BPAX ADX and all looks uptrend.. May it is poised set to go up above $5. who is jumping in ?! I might..
43Tony Ellis

April 3rd, 2008 at 11:54 am

Anyone in MELA?
44Andrew

April 3rd, 2008 at 11:58 am

Nice find
45vijai - moneyreallymatters.com

April 3rd, 2008 at 12:04 pm

thats is a nice uptrend stock.. but just the volume is not too much for me..
46Danny

April 3rd, 2008 at 12:13 pm

Nice chart on BPAX but the buyers are not there.
47Gary

April 3rd, 2008 at 1:04 pm

have we talked about YTBLA here yet? Take a look!
48Andrew

April 3rd, 2008 at 1:19 pm

Tim, I know that your strategy is mainly based on shorts that are rarely held onto for a few days. I am just curious as to why, after looking at the terrible 1st quarter of the overall market, you would not hold onto some of these stock (short position) for more than a few days. The returns you could be experienced would be far greater than what you have experienced. Please do not take this the wrong way because I think you are a great trader, but why not sit on some of these stocks for a longer time? And I know you will say something about unpredictability, but it wasn’t a secret that we were or either in or near a recession.
49timsykes

April 3rd, 2008 at 1:26 pm

cuz i dont have the capital to sit around and wait, new opportunities every few days, cant risk being stuck in some other position. and recession–stop listening to the crap that is the financial media, there are time lags involved–unpredictable ones–it could already be priced in…dont play market guessing games, it’s impossible to have much edge, let $3b macro funds play that game
50lmsmith

April 3rd, 2008 at 1:26 pm

@ Andrew, that is a good question….I was going to ask the same thing- I made a kiling last month, and for the first couple of days longing several stocks…… but I think TIM does not want to divert from his strategy and only want to reach his 1mil mark with his strategy….