TIM Monthly Review: Beware The Ides Of March Or Learn To Short Sell!
Posted by timothysykes on Tue 1st of Apr, 2008 01:33:32 PM
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March was damn good to me, earned 8.63% , helping extend my lead as the top ranked guy on Covestor. These kinds of returns warm my belly, especially when so many mainstream allegedly “safe strategies” are getting absolutely crushed. TIM’s return since inception in November 2007 now stands at 40%, compared to a -14% return for the “safe and diversified” S&P 500. Total annihilation. Sweeeet!
Yes, I’m just playing with a tiny chunk of change and taking on some risk–welcome to the lives of most investors/traders! For all my continued success, those of you frequent readers or who’ve seen my instructional dvd PennyStocking know my trading has been highly flawed…as it has been for the past decade…meaning I made millions even while making tons of mistakes…meaning you can take my theories and do better…you should do better.
So let people knock Penny Stocks , assuming they’re “akin to gambling” and let them knock me, assuming I “got lucky during the bubble”. Assumptions are the mother of all F%#^ ups. Numbers don’t lie, people do. And that’ll never change. Because human nature never changes. And that’s what my strategy is based in. And that’s why my strategy will always succeed—no matter if you’re a good or bad trader, whether there are few or many plays, just as long as the stock market exists, small companies need to raise cash and human beings—especially financial human beings (aka scum of the earth)—remain true to themselves. Judging by recent events, financial scumbags are more prevalent than ever.
Monthly summary time: made some great trades, some oh sooooo close to being great trades (taking an 8% profit felt good until the next day when it coulda woulda shoulda been a 50% gain!!), some decent ones and of course some bad ones, but most importantly, I got comfortable trading as if I were poor again aka trading less. As I’ve repeatedly whined, this SEC-reign-of-terror-pattern-day-trader-rule really prevents smaller and investors from experiencing the beauty that is trading. Very sad.
So yah the numbers look good, transparency and understanding are up but this is all still such small potatoes it’s frightening. As proud as I am about my strategy’s continued success, I’m even prouder of this graph which shows monthly traffic for TimothySykes.com:
We really took off in March—Spitzer’s call girl gossip obviously helped, but even after her 1 week of fame and the DVD giveaway she sponsored, 5,000+ people still wanted to check in each day. It’s awesome. As I’ll repeat far too often, it’s amazing that brutal honesty is such a revolutionary business model, but that’s the finance industry for ya!
Check out my brand new DVD, ShortStocking - the only guide you'll ever need to profit from short selling!
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TIM Trades
View All| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | IIJI | $2,79 | $2.95 | $442 |
| Nov 6 | CVI | $4.42 | $4.70 | $530 |
| Nov 5 | MECA | $3.68 | $3.95 | $490 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $5.18 | $4.94 | $472 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $4.83 | $5.01 | $333 |
| Nov 3 | NAK | $3.30 | $3.37 | $157 |
| Oct 31 | IDAE | $2.18 | $2.18 | $20 |
| Oct 30 | HSNI | $7.37 | $7.86 | $561 |
| Oct 29 | EVC | $1.97 | $2.70 | $1439 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.92 | $7.30 | $540 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.20 | $6.00 | $320 |
Total: $34,399 (177%)
Nice March, Tim. Keep it up.
like your outlook on shorting the microcaps, my game to a t. especially little drug stocks gapped up in the pre market, oh the good old bull days. Is this market starting to look 6 months to a year down the road sayin everthing is o.k. love your comments.
Ryan this post will be up forever, i’m sur ethe price will come down to below $1,400!
Thanks AP
thanks jack, no idea what the market’s gonna do but i like this hold at 12k very much, made a few grand in my mutual funds today!
mother fu*ker , Timmayy!!!! way to goo,!!!!.. ok too many post here, im lost
cough, 1382 “monthly profit”, nefer mind im not excited nemore, bummer
I’m not making a market call here but think it’s interesting how much I’ve heard and read lately about comparisons to 1938. This has been the most volatile 1st quarter since 1938 by measure of 1% daily moves on the DOW. Also today was the best 1st day of the 2nd quarter since 1938. Market topped in 1929 and in 1999, market bottomed in 1932 and 2002 and then market topped again in 1937 and 2007. Dow tested 110 in 1st quarter 1938 dropped to 98.45 and then closed over 110 which was resistance before the breakout in 1935. Dow didn’t touch 1937 highs until 1946 and didn’t hold those levels until 1951.
Anyone find this interesting or do I have too much free time?
YA’LL!
Hi Tim,
“NEVER think it can replace a salary”
If you are a working slob like me, how are you supposed to day trade if your days are taken up by your job? Does your strategy/DVD have predictable stock patterns that work over days/weeks instead of hours? Do I have to start working evenings or nights to use it?
yes the worthy patterns i tach in the dvd work best over days/weeks, i’m just too impatient to truly take advantage of them…see the charts of DARA, SHZ, COIN, IDMI and now REED
agreed, I’ve played most of Tim’s plays but have let them pan out over days(f**King daytrader rule), because I can’t move in and out so quickly. I’ve done well ,but my impatience has made me jump in too early. In most cases the payout has taken 1-2 days to pan out. In the future I will wait for true sideways action/selling and make my move.
One other note: I’m consider buying whenever Tim is too scared to short. In most cases he is right on.
Looks like Timmay got blown up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO7f1z5P0xg
Damn! The idiot is right.
Tim, why don’t you use index futures to circumvent the arcane day trading rules? Last month I made over 25k on a 25k account using treasury futures, equity index futures and forex. The leverage is much more favorable than trading stocks. Just curious? I am not questioning your returns but couldn’t they be much better with leverage? Keep up the good work though, congrats on a good month.
because that’s not pennystocking……
exactly zykosis, lots of more scalable strategies out there, none of which i have any experience with, none of which offer the unique characteristics that make this niche so predictable
You guys have COT to be kidding me.
Mr. Sykes If COT breaks 5 by Friday can I have your DVD?
I see youve been focusing on shorts - how do you a positive breakout?
COT showed perfect topping action today–if I wasnt such a baby, i’d still be short…you dumb pumpers wanna do your thing on other sites thats fine, but when the chart and price action are so overwhemingly bearish and u put out some BS price target, you’re done. i have nothing against COT, its just the latest POS company with a good chart, if it cracks 3.25 tomorrow morning, u’re really done for, i wish u luck, hopefully u can pump harder and help squeeze the shorts but u havent impressed me so far
The only pump I know about is “pump and dump.” I’m not even sure how that works (I’ll google it) -
Fundamentally speaking I just was informed to go long on it because it was oversold and they have a good manufacturing business. I haven’t read your DVD but I just want to make some ching on a simple investment - just an honest traditional investment
who cares, it’s 18 bucks on amazon….you should be able to find that kind of money between the cushions or your couch
oh well he got deleted again
Wierd off the subject question Tim- I’d post in your forums but I’m not registered (I know, I’ll do it tomorrow). I just opened a TOS account (gave you the referral)- and tried to trade AH for the first time today. One of my orders didn’t fill and gave me the reason of “u r out”- wtf does that mean? The other order said ‘accepted’ but it’s not in the ‘filled’ dropdown list- did my order fill or not? Again, sorry for the lame/ridiculous question that should be directed at TOS- but they’re closed. Everyone should open 24/7 like TIM!!!
not lame, very understandable, i had a similar experience, one bad thing about TOs is they close AH trading at 6:30pm, so after that i thin the order gets rolled over to the next day. U R Out means u have no open order so maybe it was closed, def check it out before 8am tomorrow
Thanks so much! Great day by the way- 25k before you know it!
I like when people refer to short selling as ‘evil’ or destructive.
Just a reminder - when people believe a company is going to go up, they buy shares. This creates demand.
When people believe a company is going to go down, they sell their shares. They even sell other peoples’ shares, if they can.
How is this not an honest investment? It’s merely a more efficient way of expressing extra demand . . . except it’s demand for selling. Thus, adding liquidity = more efficient market.
Economics, anyone? Or investment morals, if that’s a concept?
VRTX held up very nicely could be a good short if the market dips at all tomorrow - but bulls are still in control
I think COIN is a good short tomorrow at any level above $10. Resistance around $10.70 so you only risk $0.70. $8.60 the only support stopping this microcrapper from dropping to $4. Maybe I’ll sell around $10, place a stop loss at $10.70 and hold for a few dollars.
Tim,
I wrote a review of your book on my old blog (since destroyed, blog not the book), and I am part of your surge in traffic. Keep it up. I hope you make it to 1.65M faster than you did last time.
Regards,
Jack
I am short HOLX, BIG potential !!!!!
HOLX looks boring
ASTI finally took a decent dip!
HOLX boring ?!?, I am in short at $58.25, now it is around $57.60, I am doing my day with that…..
Good morning folks.. ASTI is down. Man oh man, I regret being cover my ASTI position yesterday which i had it for 16.96. Good profit! Anyways, today scottrade is saying I can’t short it.
Anyone in NCEN?
I just short MPG.
COIN already down 5% on the day!
Tony-
NCEN is nice not sure what’s up their sleeve but they have promoted that for quite some time. Whether it be news stories about the wind industry as a whole or a simple blog mention they have their ticker thrown in there and put it out as press. They also did some google advertising. Relatively thin every since IPO seems like they sneak in the buyers and then launch it up.
I put to a buy to cover limit order on MPG for 16.01 to be safe but scottrade just executed.. What the heck just happened? How come thats possible?!
You bought with a limit price of 16.01, so it executed. You need a stop limit order.
but the price is just not 16.01,. It was 15.56. how come it got executed without hitting that price?! I do thsi all the time and today its so wierd.
back from morning meeting–ASTI is impressive, i mised out on 1/2 point but also saved 3/4 point to the downside, good cover
Yep, i just saw jumped to 16.70 all of a sudden… wow, what a spike?!
Vijai, you should have had a stop order, not a limit order, if you wanted to protect against a spike.
Vijai,
Your order got executed because it was a BUY and the price was BELOW your limit. Steve is correct, if you placed a STOP limit BUY order for that price, it would not get activated until it reached your price.
Remember the old saying of “buy low, sell high”, well that is what a limit order is always trying to do for you…buy at the price requested OR LOWER, sell at the price requested OR HIGHER.
Be Careful!
–Nolan
I usually put stop limit order but this I did limit order. But still it should only get executed on 16.01 not at the market price right?!
It may have been spread since its a thinner stock and although the last price was 15.56 it may have quickly changed to 15.70 by 16.00 or something similar. My suggestion is to always use limit orders you may not always get the full fill but it prevents you from paying an absurd premium due to a lower float stock.
Markets just cranked it up into high gear. Haven’t seen a squeeze like this for a while - BIDU wants 300.
Tim, if on Friday you were about to go short pre-market based on say a Super Nova would you hold off because the unemployment report would disrupt the chart pattern? Or do u just ignore stuff like that?
Nolan, that was good explanation. That cleared of my doubt and clarified my mistake. I just missed putting a stop limit. THats my oversight on the short position is a different animal compared to longs. Gotcha!! Thanks guys!!
Nice spike in GU this morning. Late afternoon fade maybe?
Comment #100!!!
Mike-
Stuff like that has pull on the bigger stocks that he stays away from. These don’t move with any ‘underlying market’ so they remain relatively unaffected. That’s not to say they won’t be, but most of the time things like that won’t have an effect on whether a stock thats up 200-300% like Tim focuses on is going to be green or red. What does matter is if there is more sellers then buyers or vice versa lol.