TIM Monthly Review: Beware The Ides Of March Or Learn To Short Sell!

Posted by timothysykes on Tue 1st of Apr, 2008 01:33:32 PM
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March was damn good to me, earned 8.63% , helping extend my lead as the top ranked guy on Covestor. These kinds of returns warm my belly, especially when so many mainstream allegedly “safe strategies” are getting absolutely crushed. TIM’s return since inception in November 2007 now stands at 40%, compared to a -14% return for the “safe and diversified” S&P 500. Total annihilation. Sweeeet!

timmar1

Yes, I’m just playing with a tiny chunk of change and taking on some risk–welcome to the lives of most investors/traders! For all my continued success, those of you frequent readers or who’ve seen my instructional dvd PennyStocking know my trading has been highly flawed…as it has been for the past decade…meaning I made millions even while making tons of mistakes…meaning you can take my theories and do better…you should do better.

So let people knock Penny Stocks, assuming they’re “akin to gambling” and let them knock me, assuming I “got lucky during the bubble”. Assumptions are the mother of all F%#^ ups. Numbers don’t lie, people do. And that’ll never change. Because human nature never changes. And that’s what my strategy is based in. And that’s why my strategy will always succeed—no matter if you’re a good or bad trader, whether there are few or many plays, just as long as the stock market exists, small companies need to raise cash and human beings—especially financial human beings (aka scum of the earth)—remain true to themselves. Judging by recent events, financial scumbags are more prevalent than ever.

Monthly summary time: made some great trades, some oh sooooo close to being great trades (taking an 8% profit felt good until the next day when it coulda woulda shoulda been a 50% gain!!), some decent ones and of course some bad ones, but most importantly, I got comfortable trading as if I were poor again aka trading less. As I’ve repeatedly whined, this SEC-reign-of-terror-pattern-day-trader-rule really prevents smaller and investors from experiencing the beauty that is trading. Very sad.

So yah the numbers look good, transparency and understanding are up but this is all still such small potatoes it’s frightening. As proud as I am about my strategy’s continued success, I’m even prouder of this graph which shows monthly traffic for TimothySykes.com:

march08sitemeter TIM Monthly Review: Beware The Ides Of March Or Learn To Short Sell!

We really took off in March—Spitzer’s call girl gossip obviously helped, but even after her 1 week of fame and the DVD giveaway she sponsored, 5,000+ people still wanted to check in each day. It’s awesome. As I’ll repeat far too often, it’s amazing that brutal honesty is such a revolutionary business model, but that’s the finance industry for ya!

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TIMstore Monthly DVD Specials:

See all TIM DVD specials HERE

  • timsykes
    no u don't short a classic fakeout stock like ASTI until the last possible second, could easily spike in this market
  • jt sheehan
    tim gotta say, you may not always be right(who the hell is?) but like you say brutal honesty is the best policy. Just for my understanding tos will allow you to short stocks under $5, but you have to reserve them or use the live help to ask for them? keep up the good work i've been reading since u started this thing. My friends call me idiots for reading sites like this and playin in the stock market, but i'm gonna be the one laughing when they lost all their money playing at poker table when I made $3,800 last week! Also if you wanna give away a copy of the dvd I will be more than happy to give u my address (come on man share the love).
  • Tony Ellis
    lol...wish i knew that about 30 minutes ago!
  • timsykes
    tony signup to me realtime mentoring package then--due to popular demand, gonna start that for $500/month...seriously

    jt, yes TOS u can short under $5, just gotta reserve shares ahead of time on hard to borrow stocks like ASTI/BPAX/REED
  • Tony Ellis
    check is in the mail. I'm not worried about ASTI. I'm not in SEC prison, I'll cover and re short in a second.
  • Andrew
    Nice work. Good month Tim.
  • lmsmith
    Tim- your a funny guy..... (in a good way)
  • Tony-

    Lots of shorts available now on ASTI. Lets see if they walk it up like they did yesterday. They'll probably leave everyone guessing so we may not see it as well as yesterday's late day run, but I am still curious if they will want it green or not.
  • timsykes
    short ASTI here at $16.13, beautiful afternoon fade, take out day lows, waaaay over extended
  • Andrew
    TIM WE NEED MORE VIDEOS!!!
  • Tony Ellis
    Can we take out 16?
  • Banana
    I tried shorting ASTI but I got a message saying it's a stock that is protected from being short. What does this mean?

    -B
  • Tony Ellis
    15.89!
  • timsykes
    gotta love that huge 20k sell order that took out 16...question is do we hold overnight considering there's been gaps every day...
  • Tony Ellis
    I'm short @ 16.50 so I have a little room.
  • VIJAI
    Crap, I should have holded on to it. I sold too early as TIM said its not a right time to short ASTI. Otherwise I would have made 5-7%. Man oh man!! Your instinct and research your best friend..
  • timsykes
    i'm not risking it, too much resistance, out at $16.10 scraaaaaaaaaaaatch
  • timsykes
    vijai, no regrets, ever...if this is a bull market, shorting must be done very conservatively or u risk getting suqeeeeezed
  • timsykes
    banana, either your broker sux or u didnt reserve shares ahead of time
  • Tony Ellis
    I don't blame you. I'll probably cover @ 17 in the mourning. This damn thing won't die!
  • timsykes
    it is $2 off off its highs, first down day isn't usually tank day but when it took out $16.200, it was a major bearish sign so there was a chance it'd crash $1. took a chance, didnt happen, nothing gained, nothing lost, not a bad trade, its all about risk reward
  • VIJAI (www.moneyreallymatters.
    You are right TIM! I agree as today seems to be pretty good bullish ride. Going against the trend is always risky and shoud watch out.. :-)
  • Nice month Tim! Nice way to start things off
  • The Barber
    What are you people looking AT?? ASTI IS GOING DOWNNNNNNNNNNN........................... TOMORROW WILL BE DOWN ALSO.. THIS ISNT A BULL MARKET..LOL.. BEAR MARKET RALLY.. ASTI DOWN 2% ON A 400 POINT UP DAY..LOL SAY GOODBYE TO ASTI..NICE TO KNOW YA
  • timsykes
    i agree it'll probly finish down BUT high probability of a $1 spike...with my tiny portfolio i cant risk that

    also if u noticed, the overall market hasn't gone ANYWHERE in 3 months, even with tons fo bad news...even if its not a full fledged bull, odds favor a nice bounce, especially since during this latest dip, we couldnt even crack dow 12k

    barber its all about odds
  • Vijai - Moneyreallymatters.com
    TIM,
    Quickly - I was listening your special guest appearance on Bizradio with Fausto. It was a good show. Thats how I got to know you. Real & practical, I like that. You should come on my show one day. I will send an email..

    VIJAI
  • timsykes
    k def email me
  • Dan
    tim,
    a suggestion for you:
    you should be hedging every one of your trades with a waaaay OTM put or call. considering how large a portion of your account each one of your trades ends up being, you should have something in place for protection.
  • AP
    At what level of traffic do you think your stock picks become self-fulfilling prophecies. Like Mark Cuban's Stockslueth website that crushed the China Fire stock when it released a negative report last month.
  • timsykes
    never traded an option, probly never will. and hedging aint my thing.

    usually i dont post my trades realtime if there's an illiquid stock, but ASTI was liquid enough...also i dont think u understand how bad my reputation is, many people will never trust me, my strategy or penny stocks.
  • Tony Ellis
    Dan...how the hell is TIM going to buy options on the POS stocks he trades?
  • mike
    Tim,

    Great blog. I'm a fan of yous and loved watching you on WSW.

    I don't see how the returns you are experienceing are sustainable over a long period of time.

    I could be wrong, but why blog about it and sell DVDs at $300/ pop, when any institution would cut you a mutl-million dollar check for the strategy?

    I know you've said this strategy cannot work on a large scale, which is probably the answer to my question. If that's the case, what good is it? I mean taking $12,500 to $17,500 may be 40%, but at end of the day it's only $5,000. I can't even take my family to Disney for one week. Make this kinds of returns working with millions and you've got something. Not only that, but on your first time around, you said you made over $130M on one trade. How can you repeat that?

    I guess, my point is, averaging 10% a year and retiring with $3-$5MM in 20-25 year by investing in broad based indexes is a fine strategy.

    It may not be for you, but to claim it is dead is kind of crazy.

    keep up the Blog...i love reading it.

    mike
  • Listen, rah, rah, sis-boom-bah and everything, but if you don't get your numbers to me on time, I'll see to it that people start hating you for being a media whore and everything...

    Oh, wait....

    4pm Mr. Sykes. 4pm.

    -DT
  • timsykes
    mike, making $300-$700k/year is not my idea of success. not to mention its more fun to cut through all the Bs out there, metting tons of people--mostly weird guys--but people nonetheless and u gotta remember the same % returns i make per trade will be there when i take a position 10x the size. some trades cant be scaled, but back in 1999 i only went from $12k to $123k...now i'm on track for $12k to $24k....different environent/pattern day trading rule/lots of other projects to blame, but once i get to $100k, i can easily make $5-$10k/day--when the trades are right. all it takes is 100 $10k days to get $1 million, tough but not impossible. then once i'm at $500k, i'll probly have $50k days, all i need is 20 of those to get to $1.5mil from the $500k. trust me, i've thought this out

    but i think u're missing the big picture--everybody is--cuz nobody else is in my position where i'm getting tens of thousands of emails from people who have no idea how to trade stocks. if i can make somebody $5k, thats worth the cost of my $300 DVD. 99.9% of trading teachers and courses are frauds--all i gotta do is be honest and help people. not a bad biz, much better than just making $ for a few rich people
  • timsykes
    LOL DT, let the hate me, who cares, i'm bringing trading mainstream whether the industry weirdos like it or not!
  • NeilTheRealDeal
    and mike you said he made $130 million in one trade... I don't think so buddy. Tim definitely wouldn't be teaching us little guys if he made that in one trade. I would call it quits right then and go live on an island somewhere
  • Hey listen, alls I'm saying is, I have lots of power. Like, I can have your hair straightened and shit when you're asleep.

    4pm.

    -DT
  • timsykes
    DT, emailed u at 4:03pm -$88 on 2,600 shares traded today
  • And still no damed link to my blog? "The horror.... the horror."

    That's from Apocalypse Now by the way. I quote it here because soon it's gonna be Apocalypse Timothy Sykes if you don't get your numbers to me by 4pm.

    -DT
  • Your server is all ghetto.

    You're safe again. For now.

    Good evening.

    -DT
  • mike
    neiltherealdeal

    I never said he made $130 Million on one trade.

    go to school, realize what I said, than come back and try again.
  • mike
    Tim, just one question to prove my point:

    Do you expect to make more money teaching/blogging about investing strategies or investing for people using your strategy?

    hope tomorrow's market is as good as today!
  • Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
    I like the reply on Mike's comment. I like that open, honest, straight to the face mentality. I also like your attitude to help out people and not just make money all the time.. Good going TIM!! We need people like you to learn and share not guru's who BS's all the time.
  • timsykes
    without a doubt teaching/blogging, there are soooo many idiots out there combined with so much BS, the potential for something real is unlimited.

    again, its really my only play--this strategy will NEVER yield tens of millions annually, not unless another buble comes around or i can singlehandedly increase the lqiudiity of the market
  • mike
    Vijai.

    i have no issues with Tim is doing. I think it is great...for HIM. He is a smart guy.

    I do, however, feel sorry for the guy who makes $5,000, than attempts to sustain or repeat that success and losses $50,000 off a home quity line, another $20,000 on credit card cash advances and cashes out his IRA so he can short that money...I mean what's 40% in taxes when you're gonna make it back in 3 months?
  • mike
    Tim,

    thank you for the honest answer.

    I wish I had your marketing ability!!!

    have a great night.
  • timsykes
    mike if u read this blog closely, i say nothing is definite, yes this stuff is predictable, but NEVER go in debt, NEVER think it can replace a salary,NEVER think its hugely scalable, just gotta take em 1 opportunity at a time
  • Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
    mike,

    I know where you are coming from. Lot of guru's tell you to do that way to cash their pocket.. Thats BS

    they need to learn the basic of money management and risk management first. thats the basic for any type of trading whether its day or swing or investor. If somebody is trying to replicate the strategy with loaning the money, that is a big risk and they shouldn't do it at the first place. Thats my 2 cents. I talk lot about money managment to people and also started my blog.

    I don't think TIM is trying to educate those people. He is trying to teach and help people in its own but its our own responsibiilty to handle with care right..
  • FINL should crack after hrs if it already hasnt
  • ryan z
    tim a macbook air is like $1700 even with my education discount, where the hell do you get your goods from? i want in..
  • AP
    Nice March, Tim. Keep it up.
  • jack eaker
    like your outlook on shorting the microcaps, my game to a t. especially little drug stocks gapped up in the pre market, oh the good old bull days. Is this market starting to look 6 months to a year down the road sayin everthing is o.k. love your comments.
  • timsykes
    Ryan this post will be up forever, i'm sur ethe price will come down to below $1,400!

    Thanks AP

    thanks jack, no idea what the market's gonna do but i like this hold at 12k very much, made a few grand in my mutual funds today!
  • paulv
    mother fu*ker , Timmayy!!!! way to goo,!!!!.. ok too many post here, im lost
  • paulv
    cough, 1382 "monthly profit", nefer mind im not excited nemore, bummer
  • Tony Ellis
    I'm not making a market call here but think it's interesting how much I've heard and read lately about comparisons to 1938. This has been the most volatile 1st quarter since 1938 by measure of 1% daily moves on the DOW. Also today was the best 1st day of the 2nd quarter since 1938. Market topped in 1929 and in 1999, market bottomed in 1932 and 2002 and then market topped again in 1937 and 2007. Dow tested 110 in 1st quarter 1938 dropped to 98.45 and then closed over 110 which was resistance before the breakout in 1935. Dow didn't touch 1937 highs until 1946 and didn't hold those levels until 1951.

    Anyone find this interesting or do I have too much free time?
  • J Biggs
    YA'LL!
  • Matt
    Hi Tim,

    "NEVER think it can replace a salary"

    If you are a working slob like me, how are you supposed to day trade if your days are taken up by your job? Does your strategy/DVD have predictable stock patterns that work over days/weeks instead of hours? Do I have to start working evenings or nights to use it?
  • timsykes
    yes the worthy patterns i tach in the dvd work best over days/weeks, i'm just too impatient to truly take advantage of them...see the charts of DARA, SHZ, COIN, IDMI and now REED
  • manhack
    agreed, I've played most of Tim's plays but have let them pan out over days(f**King daytrader rule), because I can't move in and out so quickly. I've done well ,but my impatience has made me jump in too early. In most cases the payout has taken 1-2 days to pan out. In the future I will wait for true sideways action/selling and make my move.

    One other note: I'm consider buying whenever Tim is too scared to short. In most cases he is right on.
  • BoOOM
    Looks like Timmay got blown up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO7f1z5P0xg
  • Cage
    Damn! The idiot is right.
  • JD
    Tim, why don't you use index futures to circumvent the arcane day trading rules? Last month I made over 25k on a 25k account using treasury futures, equity index futures and forex. The leverage is much more favorable than trading stocks. Just curious? I am not questioning your returns but couldn't they be much better with leverage? Keep up the good work though, congrats on a good month.
  • Zykosis
    because that's not pennystocking......
  • timsykes
    exactly zykosis, lots of more scalable strategies out there, none of which i have any experience with, none of which offer the unique characteristics that make this niche so predictable
  • Brendan Long
    You guys have COT to be kidding me.
    Mr. Sykes If COT breaks 5 by Friday can I have your DVD?
    I see youve been focusing on shorts - how do you a positive breakout?
  • timsykes
    COT showed perfect topping action today--if I wasnt such a baby, i'd still be short...you dumb pumpers wanna do your thing on other sites thats fine, but when the chart and price action are so overwhemingly bearish and u put out some BS price target, you're done. i have nothing against COT, its just the latest POS company with a good chart, if it cracks 3.25 tomorrow morning, u're really done for, i wish u luck, hopefully u can pump harder and help squeeze the shorts but u havent impressed me so far
  • Brendan Long
    The only pump I know about is "pump and dump." I'm not even sure how that works (I'll google it) -
    Fundamentally speaking I just was informed to go long on it because it was oversold and they have a good manufacturing business. I haven't read your DVD but I just want to make some ching on a simple investment - just an honest traditional investment
  • Zykosis
    who cares, it's 18 bucks on amazon....you should be able to find that kind of money between the cushions or your couch
  • Zykosis
    oh well he got deleted again
  • Evan
    Wierd off the subject question Tim- I'd post in your forums but I'm not registered (I know, I'll do it tomorrow). I just opened a TOS account (gave you the referral)- and tried to trade AH for the first time today. One of my orders didn't fill and gave me the reason of "u r out"- wtf does that mean? The other order said 'accepted' but it's not in the 'filled' dropdown list- did my order fill or not? Again, sorry for the lame/ridiculous question that should be directed at TOS- but they're closed. Everyone should open 24/7 like TIM!!!
  • timsykes
    not lame, very understandable, i had a similar experience, one bad thing about TOs is they close AH trading at 6:30pm, so after that i thin the order gets rolled over to the next day. U R Out means u have no open order so maybe it was closed, def check it out before 8am tomorrow
  • Evan
    Thanks so much! Great day by the way- 25k before you know it!
  • Zach
    I like when people refer to short selling as 'evil' or destructive.

    Just a reminder - when people believe a company is going to go up, they buy shares. This creates demand.

    When people believe a company is going to go down, they sell their shares. They even sell other peoples' shares, if they can.

    How is this not an honest investment? It's merely a more efficient way of expressing extra demand . . . except it's demand for selling. Thus, adding liquidity = more efficient market.

    Economics, anyone? Or investment morals, if that's a concept?
  • VRTX held up very nicely could be a good short if the market dips at all tomorrow - but bulls are still in control
  • Mike
    I think COIN is a good short tomorrow at any level above $10. Resistance around $10.70 so you only risk $0.70. $8.60 the only support stopping this microcrapper from dropping to $4. Maybe I'll sell around $10, place a stop loss at $10.70 and hold for a few dollars.
  • Tim,

    I wrote a review of your book on my old blog (since destroyed, blog not the book), and I am part of your surge in traffic. Keep it up. I hope you make it to 1.65M faster than you did last time.

    Regards,
    Jack
  • tsa
    I am short HOLX, BIG potential !!!!!
  • Zykosis
    HOLX looks boring
  • ASTI finally took a decent dip!
  • tsa
    HOLX boring ?!?, I am in short at $58.25, now it is around $57.60, I am doing my day with that.....
  • Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
    Good morning folks.. ASTI is down. Man oh man, I regret being cover my ASTI position yesterday which i had it for 16.96. Good profit! Anyways, today scottrade is saying I can't short it.
  • Tony Ellis
    Anyone in NCEN?
  • Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
    I just short MPG.
  • Mike
    COIN already down 5% on the day!
  • Tony-

    NCEN is nice not sure what's up their sleeve but they have promoted that for quite some time. Whether it be news stories about the wind industry as a whole or a simple blog mention they have their ticker thrown in there and put it out as press. They also did some google advertising. Relatively thin every since IPO seems like they sneak in the buyers and then launch it up.
  • Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
    I put to a buy to cover limit order on MPG for 16.01 to be safe but scottrade just executed.. What the heck just happened? How come thats possible?!
  • steve
    You bought with a limit price of 16.01, so it executed. You need a stop limit order.
  • Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
    but the price is just not 16.01,. It was 15.56. how come it got executed without hitting that price?! I do thsi all the time and today its so wierd.
  • timsykes
    back from morning meeting--ASTI is impressive, i mised out on 1/2 point but also saved 3/4 point to the downside, good cover
  • Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
    Yep, i just saw jumped to 16.70 all of a sudden... wow, what a spike?!
  • neswick
    Vijai, you should have had a stop order, not a limit order, if you wanted to protect against a spike.
  • NolanH
    Vijai,

    Your order got executed because it was a BUY and the price was BELOW your limit. Steve is correct, if you placed a STOP limit BUY order for that price, it would not get activated until it reached your price.

    Remember the old saying of "buy low, sell high", well that is what a limit order is always trying to do for you...buy at the price requested OR LOWER, sell at the price requested OR HIGHER.

    Be Careful!

    --Nolan
  • Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
    I usually put stop limit order but this I did limit order. But still it should only get executed on 16.01 not at the market price right?!
  • It may have been spread since its a thinner stock and although the last price was 15.56 it may have quickly changed to 15.70 by 16.00 or something similar. My suggestion is to always use limit orders you may not always get the full fill but it prevents you from paying an absurd premium due to a lower float stock.

    Markets just cranked it up into high gear. Haven't seen a squeeze like this for a while - BIDU wants 300.
  • Mike
    Tim, if on Friday you were about to go short pre-market based on say a Super Nova would you hold off because the unemployment report would disrupt the chart pattern? Or do u just ignore stuff like that?
  • Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
    Nolan, that was good explanation. That cleared of my doubt and clarified my mistake. I just missed putting a stop limit. THats my oversight on the short position is a different animal compared to longs. Gotcha!! Thanks guys!!
  • Andrew
    Nice spike in GU this morning. Late afternoon fade maybe?
  • Mike
    Comment #100!!!
  • Mike-

    Stuff like that has pull on the bigger stocks that he stays away from. These don't move with any 'underlying market' so they remain relatively unaffected. That's not to say they won't be, but most of the time things like that won't have an effect on whether a stock thats up 200-300% like Tim focuses on is going to be green or red. What does matter is if there is more sellers then buyers or vice versa lol.
  • timsykes
    depends on the stock, sector, volume, usually i ignore overall market but if there's news that could inspire a 300+ dow spike, gotta be aware
  • tsa
    Tim, good time to short ASTI in your opinion?
  • neswick
    Does any broker have ASTI available to short?
  • Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
    Not for me in scottrade..
  • Mike
    Tim and InvestorsLive, thanks for your replies to my question.
  • tyler
    Tim you need to do something with the comment section, or don't answer questions here, make em' go to your forum to post questions. My Opinion
  • Mike
    There should also be a monthly TIM gathering in New York to celebrate the arrivals of super novas.
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Start Here

TIM Trades

View All
Date Stock Buy Sell Net
Nov 6 QXM $4.31 $4.80 $1936
Nov 4 COT $8.66 $8.88 $642
Nov 4 QXM $4.61 $4.89 $822
Oct 30 DDRX $25.70 $26.53 $812
Oct 29 CTDC $4.00 $4.42 $781
Oct 26 AWSL $3.24 $4.10 $2516
Oct 23 RODM $5.27 $5.23 $301
Oct 22 AMLM $2.69 $2.97 $820
Oct 22 USEG $6.12 $6.09 $85
Oct 20 CBOU $8.93 $9.06 $243
Oct 16 VRMLQ $16.79 $18.65 $2773
Oct 13 YONG $11.05 $11.66 $1202
Oct 13 NPHC $0.59 $0.71 $583
Oct 12 IMGG $0.60 $0.70 $682
Oct 9 ZAGG $5.50 $6.10 $2380
Oct 7 GVBP $0.03 $0.27 $702
Oct 1 NPHC $0.70 $0.85 $1482

Total: $92,304 (644%)