TIM Monthly Review: Beware The Ides Of March Or Learn To Short Sell!
March was damn good to me, earned 8.63% , helping extend my lead as the top ranked guy on Covestor. These kinds of returns warm my belly, especially when so many mainstream allegedly “safe strategies” are getting absolutely crushed. TIM’s return since inception in November 2007 now stands at 40%, compared to a -14% return for the “safe and diversified” S&P 500. Total annihilation. Sweeeet!
Yes, I’m just playing with a tiny chunk of change and taking on some risk–welcome to the lives of most investors/traders! For all my continued success, those of you frequent readers or who’ve seen my instructional DVD PennyStocking know my trading has been highly flawed…as it has been for the past decade…meaning I made millions even while making tons of mistakes…meaning you can take my theories and do better…you should do better.
So let people knock penny stocks, assuming they’re “akin to gambling” and let them knock me, assuming I “got lucky during the bubble”. Assumptions are the mother of all F%#^ ups. Numbers don’t lie, people do. And that’ll never change. Because human nature never changes. And that’s what my strategy is based in. And that’s why my strategy will always succeed—no matter if you’re a good or bad trader, whether there are few or many plays, just as long as the stock market exists, small companies need to raise cash and human beings—especially financial human beings (aka scum of the earth)—remain true to themselves. Judging by recent events, financial scumbags are more prevalent than ever.
Monthly summary time: made some great trades, some oh sooooo close to being great trades (taking an 8% profit felt good until the next day when it coulda woulda shoulda been a 50% gain!!), some decent ones and of course some bad ones, but most importantly, I got comfortable trading as if I were poor again aka trading less. As I’ve repeatedly whined, this SEC-reign-of-terror-pattern-day-trader-rule really prevents smaller and investors from experiencing the beauty that is trading. Very sad.
So yah the numbers look good, transparency and understanding are up but this is all still such small potatoes it’s frightening. As proud as I am about my strategy’s continued success, I’m even prouder of this graph which shows monthly traffic for TimothySykes.com:
We really took off in March—Spitzer’s call girl gossip obviously helped, but even after her 1 week of fame and the DVD giveaway she sponsored, 5,000+ people still wanted to check in each day. It’s awesome. As I’ll repeat far too often, it’s amazing that brutal honesty is such a revolutionary business model, but that’s the finance industry for ya!
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UPDATES
TIMalert subscribers nailed MKTY short today, 15%+ gains!
Jul 22, 2008PennyStocking DVD giveaway contest!
TIMalert subscribers & me banked on the latest pick ZYXI, down 10% today!
I don't need fake testimonials, I got the real thing!
Jul 21, 2008The latest PennyStocking success story
I'm short ZYXI, but TIMalert subscribers reserved all the borrowable shares
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| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 23 | MKTY | $4.73 | $5.40 | $187 |
| July 22 | MKTY | $4.10 | $4.28 | $240 |
| July 21 | ZYXI | $3.03 | $3.18 | $130 |
| July 15 | MNLU | $6.37 | $6.73 | $340 |
| July 11 | IDAE | $2.27 | $2.49 | $630 |
| July 8 | ERII | $11.29 | $11.00 | $162 |
| July 3 | TGC | $2.14 | $2.39 | $471 |
| July 2 | HYGS | $2.15 | $2.29 | $260 |
| July 2 | TGC | $3.44 | $3.49 | $80 |
Total: $22,457 (
81%)
1timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 1:40 pm
no u don’t short a classic fakeout stock like ASTI until the last possible second, could easily spike in this market
2jt sheehan
April 1st, 2008 at 1:47 pm
tim gotta say, you may not always be right(who the hell is?) but like you say brutal honesty is the best policy. Just for my understanding tos will allow you to short stocks under $5, but you have to reserve them or use the live help to ask for them? keep up the good work i’ve been reading since u started this thing. My friends call me idiots for reading sites like this and playin in the stock market, but i’m gonna be the one laughing when they lost all their money playing at poker table when I made $3,800 last week! Also if you wanna give away a copy of the dvd I will be more than happy to give u my address (come on man share the love).
3Tony Ellis
April 1st, 2008 at 1:49 pm
lol…wish i knew that about 30 minutes ago!
4timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 1:54 pm
tony signup to me realtime mentoring package then–due to popular demand, gonna start that for $500/month…seriously
jt, yes TOS u can short under $5, just gotta reserve shares ahead of time on hard to borrow stocks like ASTI/BPAX/REED
5Tony Ellis
April 1st, 2008 at 2:03 pm
check is in the mail. I’m not worried about ASTI. I’m not in SEC prison, I’ll cover and re short in a second.
6Andrew
April 1st, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Nice work. Good month Tim.
7lmsmith
April 1st, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Tim- your a funny guy….. (in a good way)
8InvestorsLive.com
April 1st, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Tony-
Lots of shorts available now on ASTI. Lets see if they walk it up like they did yesterday. They’ll probably leave everyone guessing so we may not see it as well as yesterday’s late day run, but I am still curious if they will want it green or not.
9timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 2:33 pm
short ASTI here at $16.13, beautiful afternoon fade, take out day lows, waaaay over extended
10Andrew
April 1st, 2008 at 2:33 pm
TIM WE NEED MORE VIDEOS!!!
11Tony Ellis
April 1st, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Can we take out 16?
12Banana
April 1st, 2008 at 2:45 pm
I tried shorting ASTI but I got a message saying it’s a stock that is protected from being short. What does this mean?
-B
13Tony Ellis
April 1st, 2008 at 2:50 pm
15.89!
14timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 2:51 pm
gotta love that huge 20k sell order that took out 16…question is do we hold overnight considering there’s been gaps every day…
15Tony Ellis
April 1st, 2008 at 2:54 pm
I’m short @ 16.50 so I have a little room.
16VIJAI
April 1st, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Crap, I should have holded on to it. I sold too early as TIM said its not a right time to short ASTI. Otherwise I would have made 5-7%. Man oh man!! Your instinct and research your best friend..
17timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 2:56 pm
i’m not risking it, too much resistance, out at $16.10 scraaaaaaaaaaaatch
18timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 3:00 pm
vijai, no regrets, ever…if this is a bull market, shorting must be done very conservatively or u risk getting suqeeeeezed
19timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 3:00 pm
banana, either your broker sux or u didnt reserve shares ahead of time
20Tony Ellis
April 1st, 2008 at 3:02 pm
I don’t blame you. I’ll probably cover @ 17 in the mourning. This damn thing won’t die!
21timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 3:04 pm
it is $2 off off its highs, first down day isn’t usually tank day but when it took out $16.200, it was a major bearish sign so there was a chance it’d crash $1. took a chance, didnt happen, nothing gained, nothing lost, not a bad trade, its all about risk reward
22VIJAI (www.moneyreallymatters.com)
April 1st, 2008 at 3:06 pm
You are right TIM! I agree as today seems to be pretty good bullish ride. Going against the trend is always risky and shoud watch out.. :-)
23InvestorsLive.com
April 1st, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Nice month Tim! Nice way to start things off
24The Barber
April 1st, 2008 at 3:13 pm
What are you people looking AT?? ASTI IS GOING DOWNNNNNNNNNNN……………………… TOMORROW WILL BE DOWN ALSO.. THIS ISNT A BULL MARKET..LOL.. BEAR MARKET RALLY.. ASTI DOWN 2% ON A 400 POINT UP DAY..LOL SAY GOODBYE TO ASTI..NICE TO KNOW YA
25timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 3:17 pm
i agree it’ll probly finish down BUT high probability of a $1 spike…with my tiny portfolio i cant risk that
also if u noticed, the overall market hasn’t gone ANYWHERE in 3 months, even with tons fo bad news…even if its not a full fledged bull, odds favor a nice bounce, especially since during this latest dip, we couldnt even crack dow 12k
barber its all about odds
26Vijai - Moneyreallymatters.com
April 1st, 2008 at 3:17 pm
TIM,
Quickly - I was listening your special guest appearance on Bizradio with Fausto. It was a good show. Thats how I got to know you. Real & practical, I like that. You should come on my show one day. I will send an email..
VIJAI
27timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 3:18 pm
k def email me
28Dan
April 1st, 2008 at 3:20 pm
tim,
a suggestion for you:
you should be hedging every one of your trades with a waaaay OTM put or call. considering how large a portion of your account each one of your trades ends up being, you should have something in place for protection.
29AP
April 1st, 2008 at 3:21 pm
At what level of traffic do you think your stock picks become self-fulfilling prophecies. Like Mark Cuban’s Stockslueth website that crushed the China Fire stock when it released a negative report last month.
30timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 3:23 pm
never traded an option, probly never will. and hedging aint my thing.
usually i dont post my trades realtime if there’s an illiquid stock, but ASTI was liquid enough…also i dont think u understand how bad my reputation is, many people will never trust me, my strategy or penny stocks.
31Tony Ellis
April 1st, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Dan…how the hell is TIM going to buy options on the POS stocks he trades?
32mike
April 1st, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Tim,
Great blog. I’m a fan of yous and loved watching you on WSW.
I don’t see how the returns you are experienceing are sustainable over a long period of time.
I could be wrong, but why blog about it and sell DVDs at $300/ pop, when any institution would cut you a mutl-million dollar check for the strategy?
I know you’ve said this strategy cannot work on a large scale, which is probably the answer to my question. If that’s the case, what good is it? I mean taking $12,500 to $17,500 may be 40%, but at end of the day it’s only $5,000. I can’t even take my family to Disney for one week. Make this kinds of returns working with millions and you’ve got something. Not only that, but on your first time around, you said you made over $130M on one trade. How can you repeat that?
I guess, my point is, averaging 10% a year and retiring with $3-$5MM in 20-25 year by investing in broad based indexes is a fine strategy.
It may not be for you, but to claim it is dead is kind of crazy.
keep up the Blog…i love reading it.
mike
33Dinosaur Trader
April 1st, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Listen, rah, rah, sis-boom-bah and everything, but if you don’t get your numbers to me on time, I’ll see to it that people start hating you for being a media whore and everything…
Oh, wait….
4pm Mr. Sykes. 4pm.
-DT
34timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 3:34 pm
mike, making $300-$700k/year is not my idea of success. not to mention its more fun to cut through all the Bs out there, metting tons of people–mostly weird guys–but people nonetheless and u gotta remember the same % returns i make per trade will be there when i take a position 10x the size. some trades cant be scaled, but back in 1999 i only went from $12k to $123k…now i’m on track for $12k to $24k….different environent/pattern day trading rule/lots of other projects to blame, but once i get to $100k, i can easily make $5-$10k/day–when the trades are right. all it takes is 100 $10k days to get $1 million, tough but not impossible. then once i’m at $500k, i’ll probly have $50k days, all i need is 20 of those to get to $1.5mil from the $500k. trust me, i’ve thought this out
but i think u’re missing the big picture–everybody is–cuz nobody else is in my position where i’m getting tens of thousands of emails from people who have no idea how to trade stocks. if i can make somebody $5k, thats worth the cost of my $300 DVD. 99.9% of trading teachers and courses are frauds–all i gotta do is be honest and help people. not a bad biz, much better than just making $ for a few rich people
35timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 3:38 pm
LOL DT, let the hate me, who cares, i’m bringing trading mainstream whether the industry weirdos like it or not!
36NeilTheRealDeal
April 1st, 2008 at 3:38 pm
and mike you said he made $130 million in one trade… I don’t think so buddy. Tim definitely wouldn’t be teaching us little guys if he made that in one trade. I would call it quits right then and go live on an island somewhere
37Dinosaur Trader
April 1st, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Hey listen, alls I’m saying is, I have lots of power. Like, I can have your hair straightened and shit when you’re asleep.
4pm.
-DT
38timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 3:41 pm
DT, emailed u at 4:03pm -$88 on 2,600 shares traded today
39Dinosaur Trader
April 1st, 2008 at 3:42 pm
And still no damed link to my blog? “The horror…. the horror.”
That’s from Apocalypse Now by the way. I quote it here because soon it’s gonna be Apocalypse Timothy Sykes if you don’t get your numbers to me by 4pm.
-DT
40Dinosaur Trader
April 1st, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Your server is all ghetto.
You’re safe again. For now.
Good evening.
-DT
41mike
April 1st, 2008 at 3:43 pm
neiltherealdeal
I never said he made $130 Million on one trade.
go to school, realize what I said, than come back and try again.
42mike
April 1st, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Tim, just one question to prove my point:
Do you expect to make more money teaching/blogging about investing strategies or investing for people using your strategy?
hope tomorrow’s market is as good as today!
43Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
April 1st, 2008 at 3:52 pm
I like the reply on Mike’s comment. I like that open, honest, straight to the face mentality. I also like your attitude to help out people and not just make money all the time.. Good going TIM!! We need people like you to learn and share not guru’s who BS’s all the time.
44timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 3:59 pm
without a doubt teaching/blogging, there are soooo many idiots out there combined with so much BS, the potential for something real is unlimited.
again, its really my only play–this strategy will NEVER yield tens of millions annually, not unless another buble comes around or i can singlehandedly increase the lqiudiity of the market
45mike
April 1st, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Vijai.
i have no issues with Tim is doing. I think it is great…for HIM. He is a smart guy.
I do, however, feel sorry for the guy who makes $5,000, than attempts to sustain or repeat that success and losses $50,000 off a home quity line, another $20,000 on credit card cash advances and cashes out his IRA so he can short that money…I mean what’s 40% in taxes when you’re gonna make it back in 3 months?
46mike
April 1st, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Tim,
thank you for the honest answer.
I wish I had your marketing ability!!!
have a great night.
47timsykes
April 1st, 2008 at 4:02 pm
mike if u read this blog closely, i say nothing is definite, yes this stuff is predictable, but NEVER go in debt, NEVER think it can replace a salary,NEVER think its hugely scalable, just gotta take em 1 opportunity at a time
48Vijai - moneyreallymatters.com
April 1st, 2008 at 4:03 pm
mike,
I know where you are coming from. Lot of guru’s tell you to do that way to cash their pocket.. Thats BS
they need to learn the basic of money management and risk management first. thats the basic for any type of trading whether its day or swing or investor. If somebody is trying to replicate the strategy with loaning the money, that is a big risk and they shouldn’t do it at the first place. Thats my 2 cents. I talk lot about money managment to people and also started my blog.
I don’t think TIM is trying to educate those people. He is trying to teach and help people in its own but its our own responsibiilty to handle with care right..
49Mark
April 1st, 2008 at 4:05 pm
FINL should crack after hrs if it already hasnt
50ryan z
April 1st, 2008 at 4:13 pm
tim a macbook air is like $1700 even with my education discount, where the hell do you get your goods from? i want in..