Sykes’ Saturday Seven: March 29th, 2008 Edition

44 Responses

1. 1Michael Goode

   March 29th, 2008 at 12:10 pm

   

   Hey Tim, thanks for dissing my ‘crappy little blog’. I responded to your responses of my criticisms of you. By the way, I do appreciate your efforts to be transparent and your full disclosure in trading.

2. 2Mike

   March 29th, 2008 at 12:16 pm

   

   An annual subscription to Lenny Dykstra’s random looking stock picks costs $1,000 http://www.thedykstrareport.com The turtle system (a dumb fixed system that just tells you to blindly do something like buy 20-day highs) costs something similar. That gives me some perspective on how $300 for Tim’s DVD is probably cheap. The cost of something yielding profitable investments is easily overcome. The problem is that probably 90% of these newsletter picks or trading seminars don’t actually yield investments that will be on average profitable. TIM is on average profitable. I haven’t purchased the DVD so I’m not really promoting it, but I love this blog and the book and my extreme reluctance towards buying a trading lessons DVD will likely be overcome here. Because this isn’t buying some fixed system but gives examples of patterns, notes how they mutuate, and looks at some things that stay consistent in markets.

3. 3Tracy Coenen

   March 29th, 2008 at 1:39 pm

   

   Awwww…. Timmm… come on. I don’t think Michael Goode has a “crappy little” blog, nor that he was writing about you to generate any traffic. Michael actually does some really nice analysis of stocks and I appreciate his intelligence and his opinions. Although I disagree with some of the things he said about you, he didn’t do the typical mudslinging that many of your (immature) critics do. He actually had some reason and logic behind it. Cut him a break…

4. 4timsykes

   March 29th, 2008 at 1:44 pm

   

   TC, I like your optimism, but its misguided…see this rat’s comments to me:

   “Me criticizing you is just a game too–it is all just a ploy to get you to respond and
   help me to make a name for myself!”

5. 5Tracy Coenen

   March 29th, 2008 at 1:55 pm

   

   Say it isn’t so!!!!! Well, if that’s from Michael, then I stand corrected. Can’t we all just get along? :)

6. 6timsykes

   March 29th, 2008 at 1:57 pm

   

   yup, value investors are even scummier than penny stock promoters

7. 7Joseph

   March 29th, 2008 at 2:43 pm

   

   Tim, this is not the first time I’ve read that you risk your strategy being destroyed by putting it out for everyone to learn it, maybe I’m too linear in my thinking, but wouldn’t that enhance it. For example, you post on your blog that company xyz is crap, a fraud, and that you’re going to short a few thousands of the stock, knowing that your strategy works and that you are right most of the time, your readers jump on the boat and short the stock…I mean wouldn’t that make it tank faster? By putting your strategy out there, makie it work even better? Why does it stop working? I don’t understand. Clarify. Thanks

8. 8timsykes

   March 29th, 2008 at 2:56 pm

   

   Yes, I could easily front these stocks–post my pick and let me followers do the rest, but thats boring. much more interesting to teach people to ANTICIPATE my trades…with enough people thinking the same thing, the patterns will get destroyed and i’ll finally be free…but the markets aren’t that simple, lots of people think i’m full of it so they take opposite positions, some others anticipate those people taking opposite positions and they take positions in line with me, not because they agree with me, but because they know my post will create the opposite reaction.

   all of that crap is unpredictable and makes my head hurt, i’m just gonna teach people to play microcraps cynically. simple.

9. 9Joseph

   March 29th, 2008 at 2:58 pm

   

   Thanks. I appreciate again you responding to comments posted on this blog.

10. 10Sequoia

    March 29th, 2008 at 3:59 pm

    

    Hi Tim,

    Even if I am among your 2,800 Facebook friends (and even in your Facebook fan group :-), don’t ever forget Gordon Gekko’s famous quote : “IF YOU NEED A FRIEND, GET A DOG ” ;-)

    But Greed’s still good lol

    Gordon Gekko’s oil portrait (still) for sale here :
    http://www.cedricmnich.com

11. 11Michael Goode

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:04 pm

    

    Me and value investors scummier than penny stock promoters? Me, a rat? Seriously? Tim, your capacity to offend knows no bounds. I have no allusions about who I am or what I do. Of course I have ulterior motives when I do things; my motivation in writing about anything on my blog is to stir up the pot and get people to pay attention to me. Isn’t that really the point of any blog on some level? On the other hand, I only write things I believe to be true. Look at my record on stocks I have criticized on my blog. For example, CFUL, DMC, OCTL, HSOA, NROM, RMDX–all of these are down at least 40% (some more than 90%) from when I panned them. So when I criticize Tim I do so because I believe that a lot of what he preaches is crap and I believe that more people would lose money following his advice than would make money.

    I make a ton of money by shorting fraudulent or overvalued stocks. I take the other side of the trade from naive and greedy speculators who oftentimes lose their life savings as I get rich. But what I do serves the purpose of exposing those fraudulent companies and limiting the damage they do. Far more scummy is the idea of teaching people to “play microcraps cynically”. All people do when they do that is take money away from someone who is slightly less smart and slightly less cynical. It adds no value whatsoever to the economy or the world. When I go to bed at night I want to feel that I did something of value during the day. If I help to expose stock fraud or horrid management, then I have done that. If all I did was trade a worthless piece of paper for to a greater fool because of a pretty chart pattern, then my life would have little meaning (putting me in the same boat as most money managers … ).

12. 12NeilTheRealDeal

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:16 pm

    

    this is my favorite part of these blogs. The “throwdowns”. Duke it out boys…

13. 13Tracy Coenen

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:23 pm

    

    Isn’t ALL stock trading (long, short, whatever) based upon selling whatever you have to someone who’s a greater fool? I mean if I’m holding ABC… why do I sell? I sell because I don’t like it the same way I used to, so the buyer must be a fool to buy it from me because I wised up before he did. No? Isn’t that the whole point of the whole stock market? Who’s the bigger sucker?

14. 14timsykes

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:28 pm

    

    LOL who cares if i offend u, u rip on me, u expect me not to fight back? accept it and enjoy the free hits…but who cares if companies are frauds–u gotta realize there will always be more frauds and companies with horrid management. if u expect the worst of everyone, u’ll never be disappointed.

15. 15Michael Goode

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:30 pm

    

    Tim,

    Maybe it went over your head (too much trading and not enough studying at college) or you just like to distort what I say, but my comment about why I criticized you was meant as a general statement about the underlying reasons for seemingly innocuous actions (such as your attempt to recreate your earlier trading glory). Of course, your criticism of me for my publicity-seeking adds a delicious irony to the whole situation, considering that you are the epitome of the publicity whore.

    Here’s the full quote of an email I sent in an exchange we had:

    “Hey Tim, if you send me a free copy of your DVD I’d be glad to watch/read it all and review it for my blog! Your point about trading not being a competition isn’t exactly correct–the whole premise of your blog is that you can re-create your past success, which sounds like a competition to me. It is all a game, really. Me criticizing you is just a game too–it is all just a ploy to get you to respond and help me to make a name for myself!”

16. 16Joseph

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:32 pm

    

    lol at NeilTheRealDeal. Same here, same here. If you get offended easily, don’t pick on TIM :)

17. 17Michael Goode

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:36 pm

    

    Tracy,

    In my case, when I short a bad company or buy a good company, I help to move the price towards the company’s true value. If Tim buys a bad company because it is up big and will continue to go up, he is moving the price away from the company’s true value. So technical trading or momentum trading hinders the price discovery process.

18. 18Mike

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:36 pm

    

    Michael Goode,

    As I understand it (I’m fairly new to this blog and just read Tim’s book this weekend), Tim apparently advocates for the most part short selling micro cap companies that have gone up exponentially on fluff news / hype. He times his short to when volume has faded, preferably to when the last leg of the up move was motivated by short covering. I think that’s a reasonable approach that will make money on average, and and I think that general pattern would be more resistant to disappearing than other market patterns like January effect, etc. are.

    I’m not familiar with your site (I’ll visit it as your comments show a good thought process even if you might be criticizing Tim for something he isn’t doing. You say Tim running a fixed system and selling it would cause it to break down, a good thought process. However, Tim has a good discussion of mutations in market patterns in his book), but your comments indicate that you are identifying fundamentally overvalued companies and going short. I’m not sure your approach is at odds with Tim. Isn’t it like a technical analysis vs fundamental analysis - type debate? Ignoring fundamentals Tim risks shorting a legitimate company that he thinks has risen on hype. If you are timing your short based on just valuation you risk initiating it too early and getting stopped out. If you are truly identifying companies that are overvalued and will on average drop in price over time and Tim is truly identifying companies prone to a near-term decline because the price has just run up on artificial buying then wouldn’t an overlap of the trades have the best results?

19. 19timsykes

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:38 pm

    

    when u say my DVD is full of BS without bothering to see it contents, i lose all respect for u. nothing wrong with getting attention for your work, but only if your work is worthy of attention. what kind of value investor doesn’t research before taking a position? at least penny stock promoters know what they r!

    PS i only send review copies to popular websites, hence making it worth the expense. if u’re so successful, just buy a copy, u can always return it within 60-days

20. 20timsykes

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:42 pm

    

    Goode, you’re too funny “hinders the price discovery process”–what r we freaken scientists! i trade to profit, not to discover a stock’s value. what a bogus statement, shows how crazy u really r, thanks!

21. 21timsykes

    March 29th, 2008 at 4:46 pm

    

    LOLOL, i might have to do a post featuring your comment as one of the best examples of BS I’ve ever heard

22. 22Michael Goode

    March 29th, 2008 at 5:14 pm

    

    Mike, you have have a good point. At its heart, this is the fundamental vs. technical debate, with a bunch of insults and a couple egos thrown in.

    Tim, I didn’t expect you to send me your DVD and I wouldn’t want to watch it (especially after seeing how inane your ‘preview chapter’ is). I would rather re-invest my profits. Again, I am not criticizing your DVD per se, but rather your trading approach and its suitability to many people. I am assuming the strategies you talk about on your DVD are the same ones you write about on your blog. I have read enough on your blog to believe that I understand your system enough to criticize it.

23. 23timsykes

    March 29th, 2008 at 5:21 pm

    

    And in assuming the DVD is the same as the blog is where u go wrong…kinda like assuming record earnings mean record high stock price…haven’t u ever heard assumption is the mother of all $%$ ups?

    the blog is simply how I trade, the DVD of course details this approach but focuses more on this niche’s variables so students can craft their own strategies based on their experience/personality, etc..

    unlike me, u’ve never been contacted by thousands of people wanting to know more so u really have no place whatsoever commenting one way or the other. have a goode life

24. 24Jon

    March 29th, 2008 at 5:40 pm

    

    This site is the biggest bullship out there!

25. 25timsykes

    March 29th, 2008 at 5:49 pm

    

    Jon, how can u think this site is BS when I detail ALL my ideas and trades. just wondering what exactly u think i’m hiding/BSing about…or maybe u’re just the typical assumption-making fact-lacking hater

26. 26Zykosis

    March 29th, 2008 at 5:56 pm

    

    hmm

27. 27Zykosis

    March 29th, 2008 at 6:01 pm

    

    is there a problem with the comments? i can’t post pic and txt at same time or somethng

28. 28Zykosis

    March 29th, 2008 at 6:02 pm

    

    seems to me that the haters don’t want to admit to themselves that everything they’ve study for however many years is the REAL bullshit and a waste of time, and is also a guessing games since there’s too many players with varying opinions, etc. they are just scared to accept the fact that they’ve wasted so much time and effort and they just can not accept that profitable trading can be as easy as TIM show it to be. they still want to play the guessing game the brokers in wallstreet warriors played with SNDK.

29. 29timsykes

    March 29th, 2008 at 6:09 pm

    

    yes zykosis, fundamentals are waaaaay down in priority for trading momo names…as those fools who bought SNDK and doubled up instead of cutting their losses learned (both have new jobs now)

30. 30Zykosis

    March 29th, 2008 at 6:19 pm

    

    On Michael Goode’s blog he says this in reference to your strategy: “Even assuming that some strategy works, if enough people follow that strategy it will cease to work.” I on’t quite understand it because isn’t that true for every strategy anyway, patterns change etc. In the TIM approach, it’s a play against the HYPE. And hype will never go away. Sure, I guess the intraday pattern might change, but there’s always going to be absurd spikes on bullshit news…there will ALWAYS be a way to play that…recognize what’s real hype, and go against it when the time is right, and stay disciplined. This way you don’t get hurt by the bullshit financial journalists and bullshit management and their press releases

31. 31Mike

    March 29th, 2008 at 6:44 pm

    

    Micro caps and models in a web TV show, http://www.qualitystocks.net/live-1.php

32. 32Michael

    March 29th, 2008 at 8:21 pm

    

    Hi Tim, Check out GU
    this company is an ipo, people have been buying this on hype
    what do you think about it

33. 33Jibri

    March 29th, 2008 at 9:42 pm

    

    Can we stick to making money Please.

34. 34NeilTheRealDeal

    March 29th, 2008 at 10:03 pm

    

    hell no Jibri. The whole point of Tim’s blog is not to be boring like the rest of the financial world.

35. 35Michael Goode

    March 29th, 2008 at 10:50 pm

    

    “unlike me, u’ve never been contacted by thousands of people wanting to know more so u really have no place whatsoever commenting one way or the other”

    Umm, last I checked, Tim, popularity had no correlation with intelligence or wisdom. Have a good night!

    @Zykosis– you have a good point.

36. 36JJ

    March 29th, 2008 at 11:11 pm

    

    Jibri–no way can you stick to just money when everything that revolves around it is BS. why do you think stocks move up & down and especially why this site is so popular?

    sorry Goode, your wrong about TIM. its not his site or his process that keeps a company’s stock from reaching their real price point. you can thank all the other boiler rooms, insiders, BS’rs, hype-manipulators’ and of course the “expert ANALysts” for that. I’ve been following TIM for a while now and can’t find one time where he’s participated in anything like that. in fact just the opposite- by sharing his insight. others are just pissed because they call him out as a lucky trader who has no skill and they can’t take the fact that someone like TIM actually has enough passion for this stuff that he’s so willing to share, teach and educate his strategies for FREE. maybe you should try that and stop comparing yourself without doing your research. sure he charges for the DVD and book but no one that doesn’t want to pay for them has to. However they will still get the insight from his site. Although, having watched his DVD’s - (yes I paid and agree they were well worth every penny and he could easily charge more and they would still be a great value) and I’ve read his book…so from experience I can say that his lessons are very detailed and by far the most honest teachings out there for penny stocking. thy will help anyone wanting to learn more about this niche and will certainly give them a fighting chance compared to a person who has not seen them or read his book at all.

37. 37JJ

    March 29th, 2008 at 11:40 pm

    

    oh ya — Goode - i was going to leave my thoughts for you on your own blog but I don’t want to drive up your blog traffic. you don’t deserve it by ripping on TIM and telling others not to buy his DVD’s when you’ve never seen it yourself. that alone tells me what type of opinionated person you already are. quick to judge without the facts or research. by they way, Tim’s strategy does work for traders. and like every other great trader will tell you - it takes time, research and knowledge. ya, even Cramer has said it - “buy & homework” - so your comments about the “average” person having to work and not having time to trade…well NO DUHHHH, - you’ve just said it - not enough time to be successful and of course will fail unless they’re just lucky. That’s never been TIM’s strategy. but see you’d know that already if you actually took the time to watch his DVD’s before telling others not to buy it. Your comments would hold about as much water as Roper & Ebert giving two thumbs down on a movie they’d never seen. I’m sure people would stop tuning in the following week if they new they never watched th movie they were reviewing. Just like your review of TIMS DVD that you’ve never seen…but want to get the “FREE” copy of. Your next blog topic should be, how I tried to get my free DVD from TIM SYKES but got my ass handed to me by his followers.

    For those who were wondering about GOODE, here’s his self proclaimed accolades below…although he forgot to add, critically acclaimed TIMOTHY SYKES DVD reviewer that has NEVER SEEN IT. Although with his cognitive psychology degree, he doesn’t care how all of you feel about that, so don’t ask.

    About Me
    Since you are reading my thoughts on stocks and investing, you might want to know a bit about me. I am Michael Goode. I have a Master’s Degree in cognitive psychology from Washington University in St. Louis. I spend much of my time at my day job at a start up company (not tech or anything cool, though) and much of the rest of my time on stocks, particularly short selling. I also find time now and again to lose money in real estate investments.

    While I believe that I know more about investing than many finance professionals, I have no formal training in investing. My training has been ‘on the job’ as I have read hundreds of financial reports and hundreds of economics and finance articles as I have tried to best invest my portfolio. Do not believe what I say because I say it. Believe it because what I say is logical, factually-based, and usually correct.

38. 38ryan r

    March 29th, 2008 at 11:43 pm

    

    will these haters influence you to do a discount on the dvd package?

39. 39Denis Suslov

    March 30th, 2008 at 12:51 am

    

    Tim, I watched you on the Wall Street Warriors video, your apartment is nice and your mom is nice :)

40. 40NeilTheRealDeal

    March 30th, 2008 at 1:09 am

    

    hahaha this blog is too great. We’ve got all this tension, excitement, name calling, pointed fingers, ridiculous assumptions, rebuttal after rebuttal and then…

    “Timmy, your mom is nice : )” … how cute

41. 41timsykes

    March 30th, 2008 at 7:28 am

    

    goode–forget popularity, u just don’t know what questions people ask…what concepts they have issues with…I do…thats why my DVD covers really simple stuff too

42. 42Steven

    March 30th, 2008 at 7:54 am

    

    http://simpletrader.wordpress.com/

    As Rodney King said: http://youtube.com/watch?v=aMfr2CgIPhg

    You guys both have successful trading styles. There are many ways to succeed in trading.

43. 43Jibri

    March 30th, 2008 at 5:01 pm

    

    Hey guys don’t rip on me for asking to stick to money. I’m the newbie and I’m trying to learn.

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