Sykes’ Saturday Seven: March 29th, 2008 Edition
Posted by timothysykes on Sat 29th of Mar, 2008 11:51:23 AM
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Gotta start this linkfest off with one of the best quotes I received all week:
“I’m 150 pages into An American Hedge Fund already. Best trading book I’ve read since Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, something Tim’s book reminds me of.”
Comments like that just keep streaming in; I’m extremely honored—after all, Reminscences is my all-time fav book
THIS article says my now 2,800 Facebook friends aren’t really my friends. Noooooo!
Another blog comment (you guys are givin’ me some good stuff, thanks!) showed that TIM is not the first totally transparent trader, not by a long shot. I’m about 8 years off. Unfortunately, those other guys lasted just over a year, probly cuz they were also trying to raise capital…that won’t be a problem here!
This blogger tries to pick a fight with me in order to get some press for his crappy little blog…that’s fine, I’ll oblige. See my comments under his post correcting his assumptions with facts. Only one thing worse than a value investor—a value investor who jumps to conclusions without doing the proper research beforehand!
Now these are some real blogs, the TOP 25 BLOGS, all seriously banking (I might get up there one day, but rest assured no value investor will EVER get close, they’re all sooooooo boring!)
Former Countrywide guy creates a new loan company, just like the LTCM guys founding other hedge funds—we really need some kind of law to ban these bastards from business if they lose x billion dollars, would prison sentences be too much to ask for?
Classic clip from one of my all-time fav movies, There Will Be Blood
TIM Lesson: Corporate executives are about 1,000x more evil than any short seller will ever be
And now I’m really going over the limit, but here are my 3 AOL articles from this week
Some ETFs you should know about, see how real companies try to bottom and my take on 7 tech stocks.
TIMstore Monthly DVD Specials:
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Pennystocking Part Deux
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TIM Trades
View All| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2 | KIRK | $10.60 | $11.53 | $1377 |
| June 30 | ISRL | $107.97 | $118 | $985 |
| June 24 | LZB | $4.53 | $4.81 | $1240 |
| June 17 | GWSC | $1.86 | $2.76 | $2679 |
| June 15 | SHZ | $1.66 | $1.83 | $280 |
| June 15 | SPNG | $0.11 | $0.18 | $630 |
| June 12 | JAZZ | $2.84 | $3.26 | $380 |
| June 12 | MAPP | $9.68 | $10.07 | $565 |
| June 8 | HEB | $3.00 | $4.18 | $334 |
| June 3 | GROW | $8.64 | $8.96 | $740 |
| June 3 | SYMX | $1.21 | $1.11 | $940 |
| June 1 | USCN | $0.55 | $0.86 | $260 |
Total: $65,674 (421%)
Hey Tim, thanks for dissing my ‘crappy little blog’. I responded to your responses of my criticisms of you. By the way, I do appreciate your efforts to be transparent and your full disclosure in trading.
An annual subscription to Lenny Dykstra’s random looking stock picks costs $1,000 http://www.thedykstrareport.com The turtle system (a dumb fixed system that just tells you to blindly do something like buy 20-day highs) costs something similar. That gives me some perspective on how $300 for Tim’s DVD is probably cheap. The cost of something yielding profitable investments is easily overcome. The problem is that probably 90% of these newsletter picks or trading seminars don’t actually yield investments that will be on average profitable. TIM is on average profitable. I haven’t purchased the DVD so I’m not really promoting it, but I love this blog and the book and my extreme reluctance towards buying a trading lessons DVD will likely be overcome here. Because this isn’t buying some fixed system but gives examples of patterns, notes how they mutuate, and looks at some things that stay consistent in markets.
Awwww…. Timmm… come on. I don’t think Michael Goode has a “crappy little” blog, nor that he was writing about you to generate any traffic. Michael actually does some really nice analysis of stocks and I appreciate his intelligence and his opinions. Although I disagree with some of the things he said about you, he didn’t do the typical mudslinging that many of your (immature) critics do. He actually had some reason and logic behind it. Cut him a break…
TC, I like your optimism, but its misguided…see this rat’s comments to me:
“Me criticizing you is just a game too–it is all just a ploy to get you to respond and
help me to make a name for myself!”
Say it isn’t so!!!!! Well, if that’s from Michael, then I stand corrected. Can’t we all just get along? :)
yup, value investors are even scummier than penny stock promoters
Tim, this is not the first time I’ve read that you risk your strategy being destroyed by putting it out for everyone to learn it, maybe I’m too linear in my thinking, but wouldn’t that enhance it. For example, you post on your blog that company xyz is crap, a fraud, and that you’re going to short a few thousands of the stock, knowing that your strategy works and that you are right most of the time, your readers jump on the boat and short the stock…I mean wouldn’t that make it tank faster? By putting your strategy out there, makie it work even better? Why does it stop working? I don’t understand. Clarify. Thanks
Yes, I could easily front these stocks–post my pick and let me followers do the rest, but thats boring. much more interesting to teach people to ANTICIPATE my trades…with enough people thinking the same thing, the patterns will get destroyed and i’ll finally be free…but the markets aren’t that simple, lots of people think i’m full of it so they take opposite positions, some others anticipate those people taking opposite positions and they take positions in line with me, not because they agree with me, but because they know my post will create the opposite reaction.
all of that crap is unpredictable and makes my head hurt, i’m just gonna teach people to play microcraps cynically. simple.
Thanks. I appreciate again you responding to comments posted on this blog.
Hi Tim,
Even if I am among your 2,800 Facebook friends (and even in your Facebook fan group :-), don’t ever forget Gordon Gekko’s famous quote : “IF YOU NEED A FRIEND, GET A DOG ” ;-)
But Greed’s still good lol
Gordon Gekko’s oil portrait (still) for sale here :
http://www.cedricmnich.com
Me and value investors scummier than penny stock promoters? Me, a rat? Seriously? Tim, your capacity to offend knows no bounds. I have no allusions about who I am or what I do. Of course I have ulterior motives when I do things; my motivation in writing about anything on my blog is to stir up the pot and get people to pay attention to me. Isn’t that really the point of any blog on some level? On the other hand, I only write things I believe to be true. Look at my record on stocks I have criticized on my blog. For example, CFUL, DMC, OCTL, HSOA, NROM, RMDX–all of these are down at least 40% (some more than 90%) from when I panned them. So when I criticize Tim I do so because I believe that a lot of what he preaches is crap and I believe that more people would lose money following his advice than would make money.
I make a ton of money by shorting fraudulent or overvalued stocks. I take the other side of the trade from naive and greedy speculators who oftentimes lose their life savings as I get rich. But what I do serves the purpose of exposing those fraudulent companies and limiting the damage they do. Far more scummy is the idea of teaching people to “play microcraps cynically”. All people do when they do that is take money away from someone who is slightly less smart and slightly less cynical. It adds no value whatsoever to the economy or the world. When I go to bed at night I want to feel that I did something of value during the day. If I help to expose stock fraud or horrid management, then I have done that. If all I did was trade a worthless piece of paper for to a greater fool because of a pretty chart pattern, then my life would have little meaning (putting me in the same boat as most money managers … ).
this is my favorite part of these blogs. The “throwdowns”. Duke it out boys…
Isn’t ALL stock trading (long, short, whatever) based upon selling whatever you have to someone who’s a greater fool? I mean if I’m holding ABC… why do I sell? I sell because I don’t like it the same way I used to, so the buyer must be a fool to buy it from me because I wised up before he did. No? Isn’t that the whole point of the whole stock market? Who’s the bigger sucker?
LOL who cares if i offend u, u rip on me, u expect me not to fight back? accept it and enjoy the free hits…but who cares if companies are frauds–u gotta realize there will always be more frauds and companies with horrid management. if u expect the worst of everyone, u’ll never be disappointed.
Tim,
Maybe it went over your head (too much trading and not enough studying at college) or you just like to distort what I say, but my comment about why I criticized you was meant as a general statement about the underlying reasons for seemingly innocuous actions (such as your attempt to recreate your earlier trading glory). Of course, your criticism of me for my publicity-seeking adds a delicious irony to the whole situation, considering that you are the epitome of the publicity whore.
Here’s the full quote of an email I sent in an exchange we had:
“Hey Tim, if you send me a free copy of your DVD I’d be glad to watch/read it all and review it for my blog! Your point about trading not being a competition isn’t exactly correct–the whole premise of your blog is that you can re-create your past success, which sounds like a competition to me. It is all a game, really. Me criticizing you is just a game too–it is all just a ploy to get you to respond and help me to make a name for myself!”
lol at NeilTheRealDeal. Same here, same here. If you get offended easily, don’t pick on TIM :)
Tracy,
In my case, when I short a bad company or buy a good company, I help to move the price towards the company’s true value. If Tim buys a bad company because it is up big and will continue to go up, he is moving the price away from the company’s true value. So technical trading or momentum trading hinders the price discovery process.
Michael Goode,
As I understand it (I’m fairly new to this blog and just read Tim’s book this weekend), Tim apparently advocates for the most part short selling micro cap companies that have gone up exponentially on fluff news / hype. He times his short to when volume has faded, preferably to when the last leg of the up move was motivated by short covering. I think that’s a reasonable approach that will make money on average, and and I think that general pattern would be more resistant to disappearing than other market patterns like January effect, etc. are.
I’m not familiar with your site (I’ll visit it as your comments show a good thought process even if you might be criticizing Tim for something he isn’t doing. You say Tim running a fixed system and selling it would cause it to break down, a good thought process. However, Tim has a good discussion of mutations in market patterns in his book), but your comments indicate that you are identifying fundamentally overvalued companies and going short. I’m not sure your approach is at odds with Tim. Isn’t it like a technical analysis vs fundamental analysis - type debate? Ignoring fundamentals Tim risks shorting a legitimate company that he thinks has risen on hype. If you are timing your short based on just valuation you risk initiating it too early and getting stopped out. If you are truly identifying companies that are overvalued and will on average drop in price over time and Tim is truly identifying companies prone to a near-term decline because the price has just run up on artificial buying then wouldn’t an overlap of the trades have the best results?
when u say my DVD is full of BS without bothering to see it contents, i lose all respect for u. nothing wrong with getting attention for your work, but only if your work is worthy of attention. what kind of value investor doesn’t research before taking a position? at least penny stock promoters know what they r!
PS i only send review copies to popular websites, hence making it worth the expense. if u’re so successful, just buy a copy, u can always return it within 60-days
Goode, you’re too funny “hinders the price discovery process”–what r we freaken scientists! i trade to profit, not to discover a stock’s value. what a bogus statement, shows how crazy u really r, thanks!
LOLOL, i might have to do a post featuring your comment as one of the best examples of BS I’ve ever heard
Mike, you have have a good point. At its heart, this is the fundamental vs. technical debate, with a bunch of insults and a couple egos thrown in.
Tim, I didn’t expect you to send me your DVD and I wouldn’t want to watch it (especially after seeing how inane your ‘preview chapter’ is). I would rather re-invest my profits. Again, I am not criticizing your DVD per se, but rather your trading approach and its suitability to many people. I am assuming the strategies you talk about on your DVD are the same ones you write about on your blog. I have read enough on your blog to believe that I understand your system enough to criticize it.
And in assuming the DVD is the same as the blog is where u go wrong…kinda like assuming record earnings mean record high stock price…haven’t u ever heard assumption is the mother of all $%$ ups?
the blog is simply how I trade, the DVD of course details this approach but focuses more on this niche’s variables so students can craft their own strategies based on their experience/personality, etc..
unlike me, u’ve never been contacted by thousands of people wanting to know more so u really have no place whatsoever commenting one way or the other. have a goode life
This site is the biggest bullship out there!
Jon, how can u think this site is BS when I detail ALL my ideas and trades. just wondering what exactly u think i’m hiding/BSing about…or maybe u’re just the typical assumption-making fact-lacking hater
hmm
is there a problem with the comments? i can’t post pic and txt at same time or somethng
seems to me that the haters don’t want to admit to themselves that everything they’ve study for however many years is the REAL bullshit and a waste of time, and is also a guessing games since there’s too many players with varying opinions, etc. they are just scared to accept the fact that they’ve wasted so much time and effort and they just can not accept that profitable trading can be as easy as TIM show it to be. they still want to play the guessing game the brokers in wallstreet warriors played with SNDK.
yes zykosis, fundamentals are waaaaay down in priority for trading momo names…as those fools who bought SNDK and doubled up instead of cutting their losses learned (both have new jobs now)
On Michael Goode’s blog he says this in reference to your strategy: “Even assuming that some strategy works, if enough people follow that strategy it will cease to work.” I on’t quite understand it because isn’t that true for every strategy anyway, patterns change etc. In the TIM approach, it’s a play against the HYPE. And hype will never go away. Sure, I guess the intraday pattern might change, but there’s always going to be absurd spikes on bullshit news…there will ALWAYS be a way to play that…recognize what’s real hype, and go against it when the time is right, and stay disciplined. This way you don’t get hurt by the bullshit financial journalists and bullshit management and their press releases
Micro caps and models in a web TV show, http://www.qualitystocks.net/live-1.php
Hi Tim, Check out GU
this company is an ipo, people have been buying this on hype
what do you think about it
Can we stick to making money Please.
hell no Jibri. The whole point of Tim’s blog is not to be boring like the rest of the financial world.
“unlike me, u
Jibri–no way can you stick to just money when everything that revolves around it is BS. why do you think stocks move up & down and especially why this site is so popular?
sorry Goode, your wrong about TIM. its not his site or his process that keeps a company’s stock from reaching their real price point. you can thank all the other boiler rooms, insiders, BS’rs, hype-manipulators
oh ya — Goode - i was going to leave my thoughts for you on your own blog but I don’t want to drive up your blog traffic. you don’t deserve it by ripping on TIM and telling others not to buy his DVD’s when you’ve never seen it yourself. that alone tells me what type of opinionated person you already are. quick to judge without the facts or research. by they way, Tim’s strategy does work for traders. and like every other great trader will tell you - it takes time, research and knowledge. ya, even Cramer has said it - “buy & homework” - so your comments about the “average” person having to work and not having time to trade…well NO DUHHHH, - you’ve just said it - not enough time to be successful and of course will fail unless they’re just lucky. That’s never been TIM’s strategy. but see you’d know that already if you actually took the time to watch his DVD’s before telling others not to buy it. Your comments would hold about as much water as Roper & Ebert giving two thumbs down on a movie they’d never seen. I’m sure people would stop tuning in the following week if they new they never watched th movie they were reviewing. Just like your review of TIMS DVD that you’ve never seen…but want to get the “FREE” copy of. Your next blog topic should be, how I tried to get my free DVD from TIM SYKES but got my ass handed to me by his followers.
For those who were wondering about GOODE, here
will these haters influence you to do a discount on the dvd package?
Tim, I watched you on the Wall Street Warriors video, your apartment is nice and your mom is nice :)
hahaha this blog is too great. We’ve got all this tension, excitement, name calling, pointed fingers, ridiculous assumptions, rebuttal after rebuttal and then…
“Timmy, your mom is nice : )” … how cute
goode–forget popularity, u just don’t know what questions people ask…what concepts they have issues with…I do…thats why my DVD covers really simple stuff too
http://simpletrader.wordpress.com/
As Rodney King said: http://youtube.com/watch?v=aMfr2CgIPhg
You guys both have successful trading styles. There are many ways to succeed in trading.
Hey guys don’t rip on me for asking to stick to money. I’m the newbie and I’m trying to learn.