Oops, I Did It Again, I Got Scared Out Of My Trade Too Quickly

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• Analogies
• Breakdowns
• Breakouts
• Decent Trades
• Impatience
• Patterns To Buy
• Patterns To Short

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Oops!.. I Did It Again!
Yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah
Yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah

I think I did it again
I got scared out of my trade too quickly
Oh baby

It might seem like I’m a fool
But it doesn’t mean that I don’t know what I’m doing
‘Cause to get out too soon
That is just so typically me
Oh baby, baby

:Chorus:

Oops!…I did it again
I played this crap stock, got lost in the game
Oh baby, baby

Oops!…You think I know everything
That I’m sent from above
I’m not that great at trading

You see my problem is this
I’ve seen too many fakeouts
Wishing that perfect patterns, they truly exist
I cry, watching the days
Can’t you see I should only trade those, everything else is lost in a haze

But to lose my chance at all those profits
That is just so typically me
Baby, oh

:Chorus:

My adaptation of Britney Spear’s song sums up my trade on Agfeed Industries (FEED) today. As expected, they reported solid earnings, but the solid trading volume and 5-month breakout of $12 didn’t occur until early afternoon. A much better trader than me, Fous nailed it, but I wanted to wait until closer to the market close—because with my timing skills, or lack thereof, I’d need that market close to rope me in overnight.

But when the stock broke the afternoon high of $12.40, I could wait no longer, buying 300 shares at $12.40 just after 3pm. With the stock not breaking out as quickly as I’d liked—hanging around $12.50—the market turning south and big sell blocks all above, so I sold at $12.50, taking a wimpy $20 profit. Minutes later, when the big buy blocks came in at $12.50, then $12.60, then $12.75, I knew I’d missed out yet again (although with a $13 close, the $150 in missed profits pale in comparison to my missing out on a 50% or $5+ drop of COINW in 2 days)

So, what can I do to improve? Nothing! It could’ve easily been the latest agri fakeout breakout. I couldn’t wait ‘til the market close because then I’d wonder if that 50 cent breakout was all this stock had in it. The pattern was solid, but it wasn’t ideal. Sure, it might hit $13.50, $14 or even $14.50 tomorrow, but there’s not a high probability of the multi-dollar volatility I need to be present to make up for my timing issues—which I’ve had throughout my career, even when making the big bucks. And that’s probly how most of you are out there, too. And that’s probly why my DVD is right for most of you out there, too.

Because as you see from the somewhat corny, but potentially revolutionary (c’mon people, offer me some free products so I can promote the hell out of them and offer them to my readers!) TIMometer above, I still profited, albeit slightly, on this trade. Trading scared isn’t the end of the world, it’s actually good as it really cuts down on losses, especially when getting to an asset level that will allow me to trade freely ($25k no more pattern day trading rule!) is so crucial to my future success. Ah yes, because then I can get out with these 10 cent profits and get right back in, a few cents higher, but when the big blocks are there to support me and the breakout is no longer in question, aka my comfort level has gone up.

It’s all about comfort level and so for me, a much easier pattern coulda woulda shoulda been to short COIN on the perfectly gradual multi-day breakdown/support crack (afternoon fade) in the $11-$11.25 area, but alas, no shares borrowable again. Sad, since single digits might happen as soon as tomorrow…

Now you can Twitter any questions/comments to TIMhelp and obviously you can follow TIM on twitter too!

9 Responses

1. 

   1

   Tony Ellis - March 12th, 2008 at 6:57 pm

   I had my finger on the trigger right before the big bids came in. I almost bought EFUT in AH but no way holding overnight FEED and EFUT in this market. I think EFUT could be huge tomorrow like $20.

2. 

   2

   timsykes - March 12th, 2008 at 6:58 pm

   PS to those emailing me, no shares of CVSC available to short, i don’t even think thinkorswim lets u short pink sheet stocks…this is why i root for the promoters, they gotta do better jobs at making these stocks more liquid!

3. 

   3

   tsa - March 12th, 2008 at 7:02 pm

   In afterhours at 8PM, EFUT is already traded around $15.50!!!!!!

   Keep an eye on it tomorrow at the ring bell…..

4. 

   4

   tsa - March 12th, 2008 at 7:12 pm

   Tim, do you use buyins.net researches?

5. 

   5

   timsykes - March 12th, 2008 at 7:52 pm

   sometimes i check in every now and then but i really try not to, i gotta stick to ideal plays and for those i dont really need any special software/sites

6. 

   6

   Sizman - March 12th, 2008 at 9:01 pm

   TIm, Is STV a decent short canidate? The PR put out seems like fluff, who cares if they use intel chips?

7. 

   7

   sgarza - March 12th, 2008 at 9:37 pm

   whats going on with TMA? anyone?

8. 

   8

   Tyler Hall - March 12th, 2008 at 10:18 pm

   I am like, so over CVSC. Its miserably transparent little scheme has run its course. It first arrived in my mailbox, in a tidy little hototc.com newsletter. It was love at first sight (just like all the rest of the authors “big picks.”) You know the song and dance: expect the gap up, wait for the buying momentum, get in, exit on waning momentum. I mean, seriously, a man can get used to 10-40% moves in an hour or less. Hell, I’d rather start a cash-only account (of course, with margin to sidestep the free ride nazis) with $1,000 and watch it smoke my real account. I just don’t think I can bare the larger caps in this crap market.

9. 

   9

   lmsmith - March 13th, 2008 at 9:12 am

   TMA , you missed the run on that one……… I bought 10k shares on Monday at the close .73 cents….. unloaded all yesterday at $3.40…… then I turned around and shorted 5k shares…. I haven’t unleashed yet…

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