How To Play Converted Organics (COIN)

Posted by timothysykes on Thu 21st of Feb, 2008 04:51:11 PM

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TIM $15,380, Up $38 No Overnight Positions

This stock has confused a lot of longs and shorts. It’s a POS company that just won’t stay down. Even if months from now, shorts will most likely be proven correct (my guess is $5 by mid-late summer), it’s verrry dangerous to stay short a low float, low marketcap MoMo play like this—as shorts have learned the hard way the past 2 days, and if it ever gets enough volume to spike past $14, hold onto your knickers. But then again, I truly wouldn’t be surprised to see an SEC halt, asking this company for more info, making it verrrry dangerous to be long either, especially long overnight.

In between meetings today, I shorted 400 shares at $12.51…a few mini spikes/mini-drops/pathetic mobile internet connection later, I covered at $12.39, profiting less than the cost of my overpriced yet delicious lunch. I’m not proud of the trade—TIM Lesson: You should never put hard earned money to work when you have intraday commitments—but it’s another trade in my journey, so bleh. I won’t even give myself credit for a good entry because it’s a trade I should never have been in. The simple truth is this stock still has yet to display a solid pattern worth buying or shorting into—today that is. Yesterday, it was an easy buy from $10.75-$11ish to $12-$12.50ish today, but I already confessed to being a bitch and not buying into that.

Before this latest spike, I got lots of emails from people playing it as a range-bound stock—buying it at $10, selling at $10.70 and many ambitious short sellers, shorting it at the top of that range, trying to cover at the bottom. Well, the buyers succeeded every time and the short sellers succeeded every time until they got squeezed big-time. Next time it could be the buyers who lose.

I dunno, I just don’t like playing that range crap. Too ChannelingStocks.com-ish for me—aka total BullShip! Then, you’re nothing more than scalpers—besides this pathetic excuse for a trade, aka trading addiction kicking in high gear, even though my quick entries and exits make me look like a scalper, I do usually wait for the correct variables to be aligned for 20%+ moves (why I ignored ASYT today)—and scalping, while it works sometimes, is not only tough and time consuming, it’s dangerous because your 9 little profits will be wiped out by one big loss.

So here’s what I’m looking for in COIN—we’re either gonna get a morning spike, a morning panic or the stock will do nothing. Ha, covered all the bases, right? No, it’s important because if it spikes, it could be a good short opportunity, depending on when the wall of sellers come in and how much trading volume there is, if there’s a panic, buying is def. out of the question because then it’s a failed breakout/double-top and if it does nothing then that’s ideal because it opens the door to an afternoon fade, where you can pocket an easy 50-75 cents/share down to $11-$10.75

Whatever the case, it’ll be interesting to see if the old $11.50 support will hold this time around. Remember, this thing just broke out of a multi-week base, so as much as it looks like it’s gonna go back to single digits, the longs have the upper hand here. Recognize that and you lower you chances of getting squeezed by overly-ambitious shorts. I’ll be around tomorrow, no more intraday meetings, this week anyway.

SEC Fun Label: Just watching/blogging, no reason to risk getting my knees capped by writing an in depth research report

UPDATE: Got this anonymous PowerPoint on COIN passed onto me (don’t think I did it, there’s no way in hell I’d put that much time into researching anything other than a stock chart!), no matter if it’s true I doubt it will do any harm, COIN’s chart is too strong…I’m impressed that it held $11.50 support, today at least, but this little presentation is interesting…

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Tony Ellis

Bought COIN @ 10.5 late yesterday and sold @ 12 near the open. Been studying your DVD. What's my grade?

Whiskeymac

I watched COIN for hours today. At first I had my finger on the short button but didn't pull the trigger. Then the long button but it reversed, then short button. In the end I realized I didn't have a clue what to do. Nothing done but great entertainment.

Bobby

Why dont you ever trade e-mini futures? Thats what the big boys with lots of energy like yourself play. Instead of making $50 a day make $5,000. Step up to the table boss

cynic

just a question of when someone pricks the balloon.........................

timsykes

Sold A Tony Ellis, good job, the student becomes the teacher!

i don't trade futures, no edge there. i have 10 years experience in these penny stocks, not gonna waste it and no time to learn new stuff

Chileeater

Tim -- I love reading about your daily trades and have learned a few things. Gotta ask you though about your comments on COIN and a SEC halt. What is your reasoning behind that statement? Do you really think their business is all smoke and mirrors, or are you trying to pysch out the longs with such talk? Just curious. Chile

cynic

When you factor in your time over the past few years picking stocks, how much ($/hour) do you figure it adds up to?

tinycock

Tim,
Love the site and your commentary, but had to break out Adblock to tame the ad-insanity that is your site. I realize you are trying to make a buck, but damn its just too much garbage all over the place. If you could settle on a few decent paying ads instead of slapping them all over the page, that would be cool.

cynic

probably due to the company's ties to Jim Blackman...former PR guy for Host America (CAFE) -- a prior "halt victim" that got SLAUGHTERED when it reopened...

if you want, just google "jim blackman" and pr financial and you can see other stocks he's been involved with... a whole lot of OTC stocks...the ones where he became involved a year ago + the stock has been killed......

timsykes

I ention an SEC halt because thats what happened to a very similar POS company, CAFE. Read my book for all the details. I could care less about psyching out longs or shorts, I just call it the way it is.

You can't look at the market to pay you per hour. This isn't some BS fee-based biz, this is researched gambling. Its an education--actually pretty amazing that u can learn so much even while making money, wish college tuition was like that!

You will deal with the ads, until somebody else as honest as me comes along, you have no other choice. And yes, when I close down my paying business, I need to still earn a buck for all my work. If you don't want them anymore, just help me sell 100k books and i promise all the ads will disappear! A

D

Tim, why do you refer to these stocks as "penny stocks"? ...COIN is $12 is right now...am I missing something?

timsykes

Penny stocks all have similar characterisitics, they're POS companies, hyped up from time to time, played by day traders, are low priced, COIN, APWR, they're all the same, whether they spike up a little more than others ar enot. just a general term really. lesser marketers would call their DVD "POSstocking"

Funterpwave

Tim, quick question for you: When do you think a position is too large and makes too big an impact on the price? In other words, a $5 stock trading about 500,000 shares/day, what would you say is the largest position you can take without pushing the price up/down before filling it?
BTW, what do you think of PAL. Have been trading it for a few days and it just keeps on going up. Just went right by resistance at $8.50.

timsykes

i dont like to be more than 1-5% of a stock's total trading volume on the day.

ignor PAL, its a commodity play, not subject to the same rules

Me

Timmer!

Only a person with a avatar name of "tinycock" write such a stupid post about what you put on your website. In my humblest of opinions (which is rare) you provide a service, albeit a free service(essentially teaching people how to play penny stocks and make money... FOR FREE!)

Meaning, you can do as you wish, when you wish, how you wish... without explanation to garbage posts like that. What a (small) prick! And I'm making fun, he said it first.

"Tinycock" do me a favor and don't post that kind ignorance here. If you're interested in learning great, let's learn together... but if you're gonna post that kind stupidity do it on a site that can help you with your little problem.

Peace, love and hair grease!
@

timsykes

Let the haters come here, I've got NOTHING TO HIDE. It's funny that they don't do their research, mistakenly believing I'm the latest scam artist. People are like abused dogs, hurt by too many snake oil salesmen. Wait til they see I'm one of the good guys!

Kevin Watson

Hi Tim

You have a great attitude and i love it.

I am still learning my trade.

I trade options in the leading stocks from the highest leading industries groups using technical indicators, good money management, patience, dedication, passion and a few years of hard work.

I am up 179% since November 2007 and have made only 4 trades with a win ratio of 50/50

mike

Hey Tim, check out Coin's message board, those paid pumpers are attacking you..

Coinmaster .... pumping coin in the board 24/7
Psgprocraft.... gives misleading financial information, comes up with 3 EPS per share for coin out of thin air
Gemsallion .... encourages people to buy and hold and never sell until coin reaches 50.

timsykes

yeah fun stuff, what a total POS. wish it weren't acting so strong, but these pumpers are doing a good job

mike

I know that Coin overvalued pos will go down eventually in the future. But based on your experience , when will the pumpers dump this POS and make all the amateur traders to become "long term investors?"
In other words, when will this bubble burst?

Brian D

Still holding the ever so slutty IDMI, have been holding ONTY and DTPI for a few days. IDMI just needs to tank to $.80 so my dreams can come true the longs are retarded on this one.

eric

Tim,
Thank You, appreciate your insight, wish we could short in our IRA'S.
Any thoughts on valence? vlnc

Vince Parker

Coin shorts be warned: If you are negative on coin, I am too, and post on the coin message board in any kind of convincing manner, PSG Procraft will report you to the SEC. He has reported me and another guy in my stock group. He is a pumper fascist gone wild.

My favorite short now is NOVS. It ran from 1.14 to 2.21 this week only to settle back at 1.96 at the close yesterday. The run is on no significant news. There was yet another Wachovia extension a week ago but the move is apparently driven by several brokers making shorts buy back their positions which it seems is now mostly over.

Their last couple of earnings reports came Friday after the close, and due to report any day, my guess is this is the night they report another half a billion dollar loss for their 18M dollar market cap company. I think it takes the stock back down to the low ones if not tonight, next week sometime.

Shares are available to short at Brokers that clear through penson like thinkorswim etc.

Alvari40

Added 1/4 position to CEC short, bringing todal position to 3/4 size.

tsa

OPTV is up 38% due to good earnings.

timsykes

who knows and who cares when the COIN bubble burst, it needs to take out support levels first, that'd be a sign but right now this is still a major breakout and now with some consolidation...it could be a fakeout breakout, but then it'd have to break below $10 to confirm that....aka bubble aint bursting anytime soon

Alvari40

In full position CEC. Theme of the day is to short shitty children food companies.

Also shoted AKS again at $49.00.

timsykes

why short CEC--its an earnings mover and the chart looks like a solid bottom.

and why short AKS, thats a multi-month breakout?

Ivan Mutaftchiev

crappy market...no volume ...I shorted COIN when it crossed below 11.50 and also APWR when it crossed down thru 18.00 ...none of them did anything after that...I covered both at pretty much even money (less commissions)...

I guess they were probably not good short candidates to start with....

Should have shorted IDMI at 2.70...but I was waiting for a better entry point...yesterday it climbed up to 2.94 before it tumbled back down....

Alvari40

Tim,

The move up to 27.20 was straight into overhead resis that dates back to Aug of last year. They reported a net loss in Q4, and earnings per share decreased. So, I saw the "rosey outlook" to only play so long in Peoria. The overhead resis was the perfect place to test to see if burned longs were going to run for the exits. The stop just above the big bar offered good risk:reward. I also bring in my own bias (which is a short coming) of believing that CEC is yesterday's story - shitty children's food that causes obesity and crappy games that are covered with snot. A bias that I cary with me. Lastly, I like to find failed bullflags on these stories. I then just wait and peck away until it doesn't work. BTW, I don't play these as long term plays - it's in-n-out.

AKS is more technical for me. I use a self-made momentum oscillator matched up with various timeframes (daily, 240, 120, 60, 30, 15, and 10 minutes). I look for multiple sell divergences to line up. I then peck away with 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 positions. I am not good enough to pick the tops, so I may end up taking a bit of heat with my first position. However, I will not add to a loser. I will wait until I am in the green with the first position to add with the second third. Anyway, the daily, 60 and 30 minute timeframes lined up and yesterday was the pop. However, I exited my position about 20 minutes ago due to a 15 min buy convergence hitting my chart. I am not wedded to my position, so, take the profit and run. If the sell divergences continue after the buy convergence is over, I will peck away one more time. The monthly timeframe is too far away as far as my timeframe is concerned. I may be interested in going long for a swing or investment because of that, but I would wait for the multiple timeframes to correct themselves from their sell divergences before I went long.

I do all of this for a target of $300-$500 per day in profits.

Thanks for asking.

S Adams

Keep your eyes on SHZ. It has some vulume and right now is headed up. Compare it to CHNR.

timsykes

Awesome Alvari, now thats a freaken explanation!

Tony Ellis

Alvari, wanna write a paper for my Analytical and Economic Concepts class Monday? I'll pay!

lmsmith

This market SUCKS!!! wow.....

Jeff C

GFSI anyone?

Jeff C

or TLCV.....won't make it past 2.60

Alvari40

Thanks guys. Tony, you don't want me writing anything. Too funny.

Covering 1/2 of my CEC position (+0.45). Move stop to break even on remainder.

Alvari40

Covered rest of CEC position (+0.31).

Jeff C

EMMS Fluff on Casey Kasem...starting to break back down

Barney

Why do you call APWR a penny stock/POS when it earned $15M in '07 on $143M in revenue?

timsykes

I'd trust APWR's financials just as much as I'd trust a child sex offender at a playground.

SHZ and FRPT are both looking interesting for buys into the close, wish SHZ would slow down and FRPT to go down quicker though

ETQT

why do you say FRPT is a buy into the close after it goes down? down how far?

Barney

Is there a specific reason you don't trust APWR's financials?

timsykes

APWR is a Chinese smallcap, enough said.

FRPT, I dunno, its not a very reliable chart pattern to buy into, but usually good news, late day sell offs are followed by a 10-30 cent gap and spike the next morning. the weekend helps. we'll see, not definite by any means

ETQT

what do you think about SHZ over the weekend?

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Date	Stock	Buy	Sell	Net
Nov 6	QXM	$4.31	$4.80	$1936
Nov 4	COT	$8.66	$8.88	$642
Nov 4	QXM	$4.61	$4.89	$822
Oct 30	DDRX	$25.70	$26.53	$812
Oct 29	CTDC	$4.00	$4.42	$781
Oct 26	AWSL	$3.24	$4.10	$2516
Oct 23	RODM	$5.27	$5.23	$301
Oct 22	AMLM	$2.69	$2.97	$820
Oct 22	USEG	$6.12	$6.09	$85
Oct 20	CBOU	$8.93	$9.06	$243
Oct 16	VRMLQ	$16.79	$18.65	$2773
Oct 13	YONG	$11.05	$11.66	$1202
Oct 13	NPHC	$0.59	$0.71	$583
Oct 12	IMGG	$0.60	$0.70	$682
Oct 9	ZAGG	$5.50	$6.10	$2380
Oct 7	GVBP	$0.03	$0.27	$702
Oct 1	NPHC	$0.70	$0.85	$1482

Total: $92,304 (644%)