How To Play Converted Organics (COIN)
Posted by timothysykes on Thu 21st of Feb, 2008 04:51:11 PMTIM $15,380, Up $38 No Overnight Positions
This stock has confused a lot of longs and shorts. It’s a POS company that just won’t stay down. Even if months from now, shorts will most likely be proven correct (my guess is $5 by mid-late summer), it’s verrry dangerous to stay short a low float, low marketcap MoMo play like this—as shorts have learned the hard way the past 2 days, and if it ever gets enough volume to spike past $14, hold onto your knickers. But then again, I truly wouldn’t be surprised to see an SEC halt, asking this company for more info, making it verrrry dangerous to be long either, especially long overnight.
In between meetings today, I shorted 400 shares at $12.51…a few mini spikes/mini-drops/pathetic mobile internet connection later, I covered at $12.39, profiting less than the cost of my overpriced yet delicious lunch. I’m not proud of the trade—TIM Lesson: You should never put hard earned money to work when you have intraday commitments—but it’s another trade in my journey, so bleh. I won’t even give myself credit for a good entry because it’s a trade I should never have been in. The simple truth is this stock still has yet to display a solid pattern worth buying or shorting into—today that is. Yesterday, it was an easy buy from $10.75-$11ish to $12-$12.50ish today, but I already confessed to being a bitch and not buying into that.
Before this latest spike, I got lots of emails from people playing it as a range-bound stock—buying it at $10, selling at $10.70 and many ambitious short sellers, shorting it at the top of that range, trying to cover at the bottom. Well, the buyers succeeded every time and the short sellers succeeded every time until they got squeezed big-time. Next time it could be the buyers who lose.
I dunno, I just don’t like playing that range crap. Too ChannelingStocks.com-ish for me—aka total BullShip! Then, you’re nothing more than scalpers—besides this pathetic excuse for a trade, aka trading addiction kicking in high gear, even though my quick entries and exits make me look like a scalper, I do usually wait for the correct variables to be aligned for 20%+ moves (why I ignored ASYT today)—and scalping, while it works sometimes, is not only tough and time consuming, it’s dangerous because your 9 little profits will be wiped out by one big loss.
So here’s what I’m looking for in COIN—we’re either gonna get a morning spike, a morning panic or the stock will do nothing. Ha, covered all the bases, right? No, it’s important because if it spikes, it could be a good short opportunity, depending on when the wall of sellers come in and how much trading volume there is, if there’s a panic, buying is def. out of the question because then it’s a failed breakout/double-top and if it does nothing then that’s ideal because it opens the door to an afternoon fade, where you can pocket an easy 50-75 cents/share down to $11-$10.75
Whatever the case, it’ll be interesting to see if the old $11.50 support will hold this time around. Remember, this thing just broke out of a multi-week base, so as much as it looks like it’s gonna go back to single digits, the longs have the upper hand here. Recognize that and you lower you chances of getting squeezed by overly-ambitious shorts. I’ll be around tomorrow, no more intraday meetings, this week anyway.
SEC Fun Label: Just watching/blogging, no reason to risk getting my knees capped by writing an in depth research report
UPDATE: Got this anonymous PowerPoint on COIN passed onto me (don’t think I did it, there’s no way in hell I’d put that much time into researching anything other than a stock chart!), no matter if it’s true I doubt it will do any harm, COIN’s chart is too strong…I’m impressed that it held $11.50 support, today at least, but this little presentation is interesting…
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