A Tale Of Two Closes
TIM $14,988, Down $150, Holding A Potential Spiker Overnight
The most volatile segments of the trading day are at the market open and the market close. Sure, there’s a lot of time in between, but most price moves don’t occur then, so it’s best to focus on the first and last hour every day. I already wrote about how pathetic this morning was, but this afternoon, there were 2 low priced stocks I considered buying into the market close for probable gap ups tomorrow morning.
Just before 3pm, $200mil+ Smith & Wesson Holding Corp (SWHC), a stock that has gotten absolutely crushed over the past year, was already up 13% from $4.60 to $5.20, threatening to take out the day high at that price. The question was whether it could continue breaking out into the close because it’d already taken out 3 day highs, each one just a few pennies above the prior highs.
I kept it on my watch list, but it was CTI Industries Corp. (CTIB) that really caught my eye. With only a $13 mil marketcap and a proven history of ridiculously quick spiking, it was up nearly 25% to $5.35 on strong volume, also breaking out above the morning highs and more importantly, the highs set just last week when it spiked to $5.27 before fading back to $4.80. I figured it’d run into the close but I patiently waited until the last few minutes because the spread between the bid and ask was so great and a strong close not assured. Insiders bought a ton at $4.87 last wee, so that would get people excited too. But the stock dropped 20 cents and took nearly 30 minutes to get back to $5.35. With 25 minutes before the close, I could wait no longer—the stock printed $5.38 and looked to go to $5.50and beyond—so I bought 700 shares at $5.35.
Unfortunately right after I bought, volume fell off a cliff and the stock gradually downtrended to close at $5.15. I thought about sucking up the $150ish loss, but decided to give it a chance overnight, considering the stock moves in spikes, not gradual uptrends and there’s a pretty good chance it’ll spike at the market open, if not be able to breakout to new highs. After-hours buying in the $5.20-$5.35 range gives me a solid chance.
Unluckily, SWHC was the one I coulda woulda shoulda bought, besting all previous intraday breakouts by spiking 30 cents in the last 15 minutes. Looks good for a gap up, but it’s already come very far very fast. Too bad, simply chose the wrong horse, but based on the variables I had to work with, a good choice.
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| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 23 | MKTY | $4.73 | $5.40 | $187 |
| July 22 | MKTY | $4.10 | $4.28 | $240 |
| July 21 | ZYXI | $3.03 | $3.18 | $130 |
| July 15 | MNLU | $6.37 | $6.73 | $340 |
| July 11 | IDAE | $2.27 | $2.49 | $630 |
| July 8 | ERII | $11.29 | $11.00 | $162 |
| July 3 | TGC | $2.14 | $2.39 | $471 |
| July 2 | HYGS | $2.15 | $2.29 | $260 |
| July 2 | TGC | $3.44 | $3.49 | $80 |
Total: $22,457 (
81%)
1Evan
February 12th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Wanna talk about kicking yourself? I had my brother buy Smith and Wesson two days ago (he went ahead and got 1500 shares). I’ve been telling him it’s a steal for a week. I’ve held it myself until this morning. I freakin’ sold it for a tiny gain around 9:45 so I could daytrade NURO. Not only did I miss the huge play in NURO at open, but I never bought SWHC back. I just texted my brother the following:
“Congrats! You made more today than some Tanzanians make in a year.”
My cool consolation though- if it reaches a certain profit target ($10 within the next 6 months), he buys me a Smith & Wesson. Win/Win.
2non
February 12th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
lol
3Frank Tudor
February 12th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Dump that puppy in the morning. That spike at the end of today’s chart could get gay tomorrow. Been blessed and burned by SWHC’s temperament.
You are on to something with CTIB. Looks good.
4Kim Jones
February 12th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Since my pictorial days I finally got smart and started investing. I am in SWHC and I really think it goes higher, it is retesting this area and I feel it “busts” through. (my play on words)
Good luck to all and I love you all!
Kim
5td
February 13th, 2008 at 1:48 am
hey guys i could not find anything to go long on -SWHC was not on my radar-i was right on the NYNY
i shorted yesterday averaging up for a price of 36000 share’s @ 2.69
covered today @ 2.43 per share profit of $ 9360.00 not too bad for a sleepless night-could have covered lower i gues but i got impatient-NYNY bullship news!!! company will not see profits for a long time-and that is if NY state gives them the right to build their casino with computer slots-its a overhyped stock but could be ran up as some sort of gold pot-cant argue with smart money-now i do not trust SWHC or CTIB to do their thing —-BUT —–Tim you need to check out STC as a short-its expensive but that whole sector is waning with good news on BUFFETT bailout,classic good news fade by smart money as retail comes in on good news the hedge funds sell into news strength-whole sector of bond insurers and banks-ready to roll over on 1 year chart or 6 month with a period of 1 day-look at the “Macd” its almost beautiful!!! lookinf for a morning long idea-solars energy??????????????
6Joseph
February 13th, 2008 at 8:41 am
Dude, check out FSLR!!!!!!!! It’s up huge
7lmsmith
February 13th, 2008 at 8:48 am
I would long JASO- It split- and it’s up 2 points already…. this one is a flyer
8Joseph
February 13th, 2008 at 8:49 am
It was at least 215 when I last looked at it but it’s coming down hard down.
9Whiskey Mac
February 13th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Joseph, Its a quarterly results mover. Most likely not on the TIM radar machine
10timsykes
February 13th, 2008 at 9:08 am
Oh I’m def. watching FSLR–not to play exactly but how it influences affordable solars AKNS JASO SOLF CSIQ. Scary to buy these companies that have bigtime dips, bigtime dip buyers but lots of resistance every time they try to bounce
11lmsmith
February 13th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Tim- JASO was a steal two days ago- even yesterday- I should have bought shares- but I didn’t want to before FSLR conference call- anything negative solar would have tanked today- but since it was good news- every thing is up by at least 2 points- FSLR itself is a beast!
12eric
February 13th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Another thing i learned from you Tim is to not play the earnings game, right?
13timsykes
February 13th, 2008 at 9:33 am
No earnings game and no waiting game either. CTIB doesn’t perform, I sell, sold my shares at $5.02. Not a bad trade, just a fakeout breakout. Next!
14eric
February 13th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Thanks always for all your expert advice. I know you are big on wall street perception and the more experience I gain trading, the more I see how true it is! Fundamentals don’t matter when people are peoples’ perceptions and emotions take over. U mentioned that you will be speaking at a traders expo? Where will that be? I would love to hear you speak in person Tim! Hopefully you make it out here to sunny So Cal in the near future!
15lmsmith
February 13th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Well tim- some times waiting is important… everything is a chance
16timsykes
February 13th, 2008 at 9:57 am
No when you’re wrong, you get out ASAP. Everything is not a chance
17Eric T
February 13th, 2008 at 10:01 am
So what breakouts are we looking for today? Hopefully no fakeouts =T
18lmsmith
February 13th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Okay- I am on Eric’s page- what’s the next big break out today….
19Al
February 13th, 2008 at 11:33 am
ESLR’s stock price is $11.40/share and now they announced a public offering @ $9.50/share. What would you do here if anything?
Evergreen Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: ESLR), a manufacturer of solar power products with its proprietary, low-cost String Ribbon(TM) wafer technology, priced its previously announced public offering of common stock at $9.50 per share.
20Al
February 13th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
ESLR
Well I shorted 300 @ $ 11.40
21WallST_Wizard
February 13th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Yo ” td “, in an earlier post u said u shorted 36000 shares!! (impressive), anyway im a little surprised there were that many shares to short, you didn’t run into any problems?(i.e. no shares available) Did your short order affect the stock price? That’s a lot of shares to be shorting… anyway im interested in big moves like that and how they affect the stock price, so if you could elaborate a bit or if maybe TIM or someone could explain how these big moves work… are they safe? (your broker can force you to cover at a loss if people in LONG positions sell) I’m used to shorting far fewer shares anyway i guess my real question is just this, “Do you do this alot and not have to much trouble getting your order filled?”
22NeilTheRealDeal
February 14th, 2008 at 12:46 am
HYTM has a lot of resistance at $3. It closed at $3.02 and has moved back to $3 after hours. Now I know it’s too late for a gap down but would it still be possible to make my move tomorrow morning asap and hope it falls? I’m very new to this but that looked like a good short to me.