7 Smallcaps I’m Watching Right Now
Posted by timothysykes on Wed 6th of Feb, 2008 10:37:48 PM
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GPS maker SiRf Technology (SIRF) is down more than 50% over the past few days—a victim of intense competition and weak forward guidance. Now people are viewing it as a takeover and a dirt cheap technology play–I’m not sure if I agree with those conclusions, but I definitely wouldn’t be shorting this stock anytime soon. I also won’t be buying very quickly either because just as 50% off sushi can sometimes be a great deal, it can also make you very sick. This play can make your account sick. Avoid, with a potential long bias if the stock starts to uptrend.
Armored vehicle maker Force Protection (FRPT) has been slammed down to the single digits on fears that their sole product might be on the way out in government spending. Who knows? The CEO says the company is doing fine, but the downtrending stock price is much more convincing. If the stock price is meant to make up lost ground, it should have no problem breaking out past $6, which it has not been able to do for the past few months. Avoid until the stock shows some strength.
IDM Pharmacueticals (IDMI) has now had a huge runup from under $1 to nearly $4 and a substantial drop to just over $2—all due to some positive drug news that was already known since November 2007 and of course the CEO’s optimism about European approval. Do I believe the CEO? Yeah right! My distrust of CEOs is dwarfed only by my distrust of biotech CEOs! Avoid, with a short bias on any spikes.
When I wrote this article about A-Power Generation Systems (APWR), all the variables were aligned for a great run-up. I wanted to hold, but the volume and share price didn’t live up to my expectations, so I sold quickly. Now, the stock has nearly retraced to its original breakout area around $15, so the risk has gone down, but so has the reward. If you’re a long-term investor, this is a solid choice, but I need it to break its previous highs at $19 to make me a buyer again. Avoid, with a long bias if it breaks out.
Troubled telecom equipment maker, Orkit Communications (ORCT) has recently doubled off its low on rumors of a big contract and today they got it. Very nice—but is it going to be enough to get the stock out of its nasty downtrending? I doubt it. Sure, some short sellers were squeezed, but even today, the stock price couldn’t hold onto its early gains. Avoid, with a short bias if it continues spiking.
Sun Cal Energy (SCEY) is just the latest speculative natural gas penny stock to be pumped, now having tripled over the past few weeks. I’ve been digging and digging but I can’t find anything very special about this company. Yes, I sometimes respect the pump, but not this one. Avoid buying or shorting at all costs—well, maybe short after its first down day.
Local.com (LOCM), a wannabe Google (GOOG) search engine company is great for hypability and spikability, but in no way should this stock ever be considered for a long-term investment. All they seem to know how to do is grow their traffic and lose more money. And then there’s its valuation. My blog had 50,000 unique visitors last month, or 1/232nd of LOCM and if it was valued as highly as this stock, it’d be worth $250,000. Yes, please. What a joke! Don’t believe the hype when it comes to micro-search engines like this and (CNIC), the former Mamma.com. Avoid with a short bias on any substantial spikes.
Disclosure: No positions, just stalking
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TIM Alerts
View All| Date | Stock | Position | Ideal Exit | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | KVHI | Short | $3.70 | 18% |
| Nov 20 | STSX | Short | $3.10 | 11% |
| Nov 18 | PERY | Short | $3.75 | 25% |
| Nov 11 | IIJI | Short | $2.80 | 5% |
| Nov 6 | CVI | Short | $4 | 15% |
| Nov 5 | MECA | Short | $1.95 | 51% |
| Nov 4 | CVI | Short | $4.81 | 4% |
| Nov 3 | NAK | Short | $3.20 | 5% |
| Oct 29 | EVC | Short | $2 | 26% |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | Short | $6.80 | 7% |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | Short | $5.75 | 4% |
November: 9 alerts, 15% avg gain
October: 11 alerts, 14% avg gain
one of your better posts Tim, keep up the good work
P
I dunno, APWR is up on a stick right now, buying on a $19 breakout is too risky unless you can get some support from it trading in the 16-19 range for several months.
Short ORCT @ 7.62, 1/2 position.
Going short NYNY @$1.45.
slim pickins out there given all runups are earnings based. Makes it difficult to find that bullshit play.
Good day to trade JASO, stock split tomorrow.
Short above 45.6, cover below, a lot of in and out possible.
was today SCEY’s 1st down day….
VLNC is an interesting play this am.
Wild stuff. I went to add a block short on my NYNY and TDAmeritrade said that they didn’t have the security to short. This was after I had already shorted a block 20 minutes earlier. So, then I let it rest for 5 minutes, and then placed another order to short a block. Wham - filled! Amazing. So, I am short 2/3rds position at 1.45. BTW, I looked at depth at this company. It is completely upside down on its balance sheet. They only have one source of income with tons of debt. The death of the indian deal, and it is dead for literally years, means that this is a <$1 stock.
Just added another block of shares short for ORCT. Ave price 7.59. A break of today’s lows and we may be able to get a gap close down to $7.12.
is ORCT still have more in it to go down? I’d think about shorting into Friday, what do you think Tim and Albari40? I hope I’m not late to the party.. I seem to enter when its always too late.. but maybe can squeeze another 5% tomorrow??
Also Tim, I subscribed to your newsletter.. does each post you put up on here go to our email if we are subscribed? I think that would be a good idea.. like an alert whenever you post a new one of these.
Stan,
Honestly, I would stay out if you do not already have a position short. They are releasing earnings on Tuesday and they have a history of beating expectations - so, short term it may pop. Also, volume to the downside (30 min chart) is drying up. So, while I am short and am looking for the gap fill, there is risk to this play.
Wow, crazy day, not in the market but for me—big fire made my building get evacuated from 5-9am. sucks. what we got in play boys? SCEY, ORCT, NYNY all look too boring to me, I want some big movers, whatcha got?
We got notin boss. Is much slower than yesterday. Cannot find a dang thing out there.
I thought VLNC might be an interesting play, but not much volumne after the initial pop.
XIDE and VLNC were moving this morning, then they stalled good be afternoon movers
XIDE: is an earnings release. The boss said stay away from thoses movers
good, slow days are good, they teach you patience. wait til u see some of pics of this fire, scary stuff when real life intervenes
http://www.newsday.com/news/lo.....2608.story
whiskey, not looking at short side today, long side on XIDE or not at all, already played it this AM for a little $
NSR had a huge spike in the morning. Took a piece of it. Looks stale now.
TTWO up on takeover rumors:
http://www.mcvuk.com/news/2955.....15-billion
cge.to is up big on Quarter Fiscal 2008 Financial and Operating Results
It’s days like these that I want to get drunk and throw darts at stock charts.
lmao
Days like this are fine, newbies and veterans alike need to understand you don’t need to trade every day, the best opportunities come about only so often
POWI getting pushed down into the close.
yesterday news went out POWI 4Q net doubled and also Needham raised it to strong buy from bu … looks nice! I like the dip at the end of the day.. thats what happened with HLCS about 2 weeks ago and the next day it really went down.
Id like to short this too..
although I look at another stock I traded EBS in early Jan on similar news, it spiked up, i bought it on its way up and sold it when it leved off at 8. Since then it hasnt dipped. Also possible here, thats my concern, it could go either way?
EBS and POWI chart patterns waaaay too random for me
Tim, Tim, Tim,
Well, I was shorting before I knew about you, but now I am a Timmite! LOL, greatest stock blog out there, except for our chat room, that is the best on the net for big gains IMO.
Told ya in chat yesterday SCEY gonna be a sweet short. Rode it down from 1.37 and covered near close under a buck. Dunno even know my profit at this momo since I am still sick as a dog, but doubled down on it twice so should be nice $$.
My top watches today, SCEY, CTIB (balloons?? waaa??? dude, get real) and GGSIF. Banged all 3 today for big bucks. SCEY 30%. Love these piggies!!!
Will keep close eye on SCEY for long or short now. Could bounce nice which I will play. Or go to sub a buck, which I will play too. Don’t matter, follow the piggy herd action.
(Feb 06-09:28) Laura: nice cover, keep eye on SCEY shortie Tim. I shorted it last week, now up huge from that trade
(Feb 06-10:11) Laura: go ahead SCEY, keeping walkin the UBB
(Feb 06-13:02) Laura: SCEY more from this morning, 1.29 now
(Feb 06-15:26) Muddy: SCEY hod 1.38
(Feb 06-15:26) Muddy: still walking ubb’s
(Feb 06-15:28) Laura: yup, nice run up
(Feb 06-15:28) Muddy: hard run down when starts maybe too
(Feb 06-15:29) Laura: hoping so
(Feb 06-15:29) Laura: did it few weeks ago
(Feb 06-15:31) Muddy: CTIB big pop over 4
(Feb 06-15:31) Muddy: real low floater
(Feb 06-15:32) Laura: nice, 4.40
(Feb 06-15:34) Laura: 4.70
(Feb 06-15:37) Laura: wants 5
(Feb 06-15:42) Laura: 5.00 CTIB
(Feb 06-15:42) Laura: nice call
(Feb 06-15:43) Muddy: low float moving decent
(Feb 06-15:49) Muddy: SCEY 1.49
(Feb 06-15:49) TraderJJ: i see the big volume in the last 45 min or so yesterday too
(Feb 06-15:49) Laura: sweet SCEY
(Feb 06-15:49) TraderJJ: at .23
(Feb 06-15:50) Muddy: CTIB near hods
Hey Tim hi! I watched Wall Street Warriors and you were great, man! :o) I am an electricity trader from Czech Republick, call me please I wanna ask you some questions about trading stuff. I am trading stocks for 5 years, and I am 22 now ;) My skype is dj_revenger
Hope to hear you soon matey :)
Arthur, thanks for commenting, ask away, I don’t have skype and I’m a week behind on emails so its best to ask me anything here
Oh I understand… Never mind just wanted to chat or talk about trading. So you can just add me on some messenger when you will have time. Otherwise I will be visitng youre blog so we will be in touch here.
Maybe I’ll share with you all guys my picks.
What do you think about CBEY? I like the chart, if it will go above 26,1
I’d never consider buying CBEY in a million years, just broke key support. I only buy breakouts, not breakdowns
Heheh, thanks for youre opinion. But I will buy it at my level, so lets track it ;) Otherwise Some good plans for weekend? :)
Tim look at CBEY. As I wrote above ;)
Never say never :)
LOCM is making me cry.