Those Who Can’t Do, Teach, Prove Me Wrong Sykes
Posted by timothysykes on Tue 5th of Feb, 2008 07:00:56 PM
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Sponsor Offer:
TIM $13,350 Down $780, Short 1,500 IDMI @ $3.36ish
I spoke too soon in calling it a day—after all, I’m a trading addict:
While busy writing this post defending my name—whatever that means—I missed butt ugly biotech play (IDMI), which, despite doubling since Monday on some positive drug news, now looked to extend its gain breaking above the morning high of $2 at 2:30pm-ish. Now, students of my DVD have learned you should NEVER short on the first day of a potentially big mover (and you can tell the big movers by their ridiculously abnormal daily trading volume that stretches into the tens of millions of shares). Granted, it’d already doubled, but a $1 double is nothing, it’s the $2, the $4, the $8 doubles that are not only exciting, but perfect to short into, and ONLY on the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th day of run up.
Missing a clear breakout on a low priced play is bad enough (coulda woulda shoulda bought 2,000 shares at $2.05ish and flipped them anytime in the next hour for a minimum gain of $1,000, but what’s worse is that feeling left out, so I brought out old Mr. Shortie, you old devil you! That’s right, despite the big volume increase, the crystal clear breakout and the fact that this was the first day runup, I had to short, because I brought reason into this—rationalizing that the float was 18 million, the news was Monday morning and nobody cared then and it’s got tons of bitter shareholders looking to sell out on any bounce, so it had to be overvalued. Well guess what:
TIM Lesson: REASON/VALUATION/YOUR OPINION/PATHETIC EXCUSE FOR INTELLIGENCE DOES NOT MATTER, ONLY THE PRICE ACTION/PATTERN MATTERS
After shorting 1,000 shares at $3.15—and congratulating myself that Lionmaster shorted early at $2.95, the stock rightfully bitchslapped me—after hanging around $3.20—broke out hardcore to $3.50, then $3.75. A fully ridiculous move, but a move not meant to be shorted—no, this was a time to be selling blocks of those shares I coulda woulda shoulda bought in the low $2s! (Anybody out there catch this one long, c’mon DVD students, I know you’re out there, you paid my rent this month!) Instead of giving up, I wanted to double up (it’s inevitably gonna tank, the question is how much pain will I have to endure in the meantime), but TIM’s pathetic excuse for assets limited me, so instead I said screw it, adding only 500 more shares short at $3.75, total average on 1,500 shares is $3.36. With its close around $3.80, I’m down a bunch, but definitely not out and my position size is only 40% of assets. I kinda hope it goes higher pre-market, so I can add, as this is one I’ll have no problem going all in on, if need be. Forget responsible financial speculation, just don’t try this at home!
I know, I know wait for the sideways price action, gotta wait, gotta have patience, but the problem with that is there might not be shares to short then. And TIM being under $100k is boring me (and probly you too) to death, so let’s go for it. Screw it. I’m not aiming for 50% annual returns here at $14k, well now $13k asset size, I want 200-1,000%. Back in 1999—when I was a complete idiot—I went from $12k to $123k. Some of it due to luck, but mostly because I didn’t know or care about % returns, I just wanted to make $. Ignorance is bliss. So, the pressure’s on, the Dealbreaker crowd is watching, let’s have some real fun, for once!
(I’ll have a full analysis on this and a few others later tonight—yeahhhhh, screw that uptight charity event I was gonna go to, it’s time to talk trading!)
Now you can Twitter any questions/comments to TIMhelp and obviously you can follow TIM on twitter too!
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TIM Alerts
View All| Date | Stock | Position | Ideal Exit | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | KVHI | Short | $3.70 | 18% |
| Nov 20 | STSX | Short | $3.10 | 11% |
| Nov 18 | PERY | Short | $3.75 | 25% |
| Nov 11 | IIJI | Short | $2.80 | 5% |
| Nov 6 | CVI | Short | $4 | 15% |
| Nov 5 | MECA | Short | $1.95 | 51% |
| Nov 4 | CVI | Short | $4.81 | 4% |
| Nov 3 | NAK | Short | $3.20 | 5% |
| Oct 29 | EVC | Short | $2 | 26% |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | Short | $6.80 | 7% |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | Short | $5.75 | 4% |
November: 9 alerts, 15% avg gain
October: 11 alerts, 14% avg gain
Nice short Tim. Oh and thanks for replying to my email a couple weeks ago about hedge fund careers.
Nice comeback there Timmay.
I hope you close in the green on this one.
-DT
Flipped out ORCT for a nice 5% gain. Next!!
Alvari40 - is there anyway to know a day ahead of time to get into a stock like ORTC before it jumps up $2 llike that at opeing?
Eric T -
Good question. A lot of research, knowledge of sector dynamics, market dynamics, a bit of luck and a number of misses before the home run. I do not mean to be a smart ass. To me, it is a bit easier to game the air coming out of the bubble rather than air going into the bubble for daytrading purposes. I would toss it out there to the group to see what they do. For me, I capyure those runs not from daytrading, but from solid research, patience and persistence. Other than that, jump on the wave when you see the swale. Outside!!!
Watching MFLX for continuation of opening breakout.
Tim, is QSC a short?
ORCT is up on contract news, it was rumored for a bit, but no way to predict it
MFLX is just the latest earnings winner with a strong downtrend, no different than INFN, VPRT, I’d avoid
QSC has some nice topping action, but its a scary AMEX biotech, too scary to be short longterm on it, maybe if it really starts cracking a la TNRO
Tim,
Thx for the info. The contract news was the reason for me to go short on ORCT - too bad I took the 5%, it’s down a bit more from that. It was a good daytrade. Still in the IDMI short with 1/2 shares, looking to see if the double bottom (5 min chart) can be taken out or if it is for real - finger on eject button if it is for real. Scaling into the MFLX move up (scaling in long) to see if we get an afternoon push.
Scratch-off tickets is a bad analogy. Scratch-offs are designed by clever marketing folks to fleece you slowly — more like regular financial services and funds, not TIM!
TIM is more like playing poker as the only sober player at the table, with the other players being a drunken wedding party. You aren’t guaranteed to win but you placed yourself in a great position.
yaktipper, GREAT analogy. enter an irrational market with reason and the odds are on your side
Exited my 2nd 1/2 on IDMI for a 27% gain. Where is the next scratch off? Entering a scalp long on MFLX. It held the lows and is now starting to exhibit volume to upside (5 min chart). Could be a head fake, but I have tight stop.
check out smtk-big pop-going to poop?
smtk is a takeover candidate by CY, avoid