Those Who Can’t Do, Teach, Prove Me Wrong Sykes
Posted by timothysykes on Tue 5th of Feb, 2008 07:00:56 PM
Tags:
TIM Store Offer:
TIM $13,350 Down $780, Short 1,500 IDMI @ $3.36ish
I spoke too soon in calling it a day—after all, I’m a trading addict:
While busy writing this post defending my name—whatever that means—I missed butt ugly biotech play (IDMI), which, despite doubling since Monday on some positive drug news, now looked to extend its gain breaking above the morning high of $2 at 2:30pm-ish. Now, students of my DVD have learned you should NEVER short on the first day of a potentially big mover (and you can tell the big movers by their ridiculously abnormal daily trading volume that stretches into the tens of millions of shares). Granted, it’d already doubled, but a $1 double is nothing, it’s the $2, the $4, the $8 doubles that are not only exciting, but perfect to short into, and ONLY on the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th day of run up.
Missing a clear breakout on a low priced play is bad enough (coulda woulda shoulda bought 2,000 shares at $2.05ish and flipped them anytime in the next hour for a minimum gain of $1,000, but what’s worse is that feeling left out, so I brought out old Mr. Shortie, you old devil you! That’s right, despite the big volume increase, the crystal clear breakout and the fact that this was the first day runup, I had to short, because I brought reason into this—rationalizing that the float was 18 million, the news was Monday morning and nobody cared then and it’s got tons of bitter shareholders looking to sell out on any bounce, so it had to be overvalued. Well guess what:
TIM Lesson: REASON/VALUATION/YOUR OPINION/PATHETIC EXCUSE FOR INTELLIGENCE DOES NOT MATTER, ONLY THE PRICE ACTION/PATTERN MATTERS
After shorting 1,000 shares at $3.15—and congratulating myself that Lionmaster shorted early at $2.95, the stock rightfully bitchslapped me—after hanging around $3.20—broke out hardcore to $3.50, then $3.75. A fully ridiculous move, but a move not meant to be shorted—no, this was a time to be selling blocks of those shares I coulda woulda shoulda bought in the low $2s! (Anybody out there catch this one long, c’mon DVD students, I know you’re out there, you paid my rent this month!) Instead of giving up, I wanted to double up (it’s inevitably gonna tank, the question is how much pain will I have to endure in the meantime), but TIM’s pathetic excuse for assets limited me, so instead I said screw it, adding only 500 more shares short at $3.75, total average on 1,500 shares is $3.36. With its close around $3.80, I’m down a bunch, but definitely not out and my position size is only 40% of assets. I kinda hope it goes higher pre-market, so I can add, as this is one I’ll have no problem going all in on, if need be. Forget responsible financial speculation, just don’t try this at home!
I know, I know wait for the sideways price action, gotta wait, gotta have patience, but the problem with that is there might not be shares to short then. And TIM being under $100k is boring me (and probly you too) to death, so let’s go for it. Screw it. I’m not aiming for 50% annual returns here at $14k, well now $13k asset size, I want 200-1,000%. Back in 1999—when I was a complete idiot—I went from $12k to $123k. Some of it due to luck, but mostly because I didn’t know or care about % returns, I just wanted to make $. Ignorance is bliss. So, the pressure’s on, the Dealbreaker crowd is watching, let’s have some real fun, for once!
(I’ll have a full analysis on this and a few others later tonight—yeahhhhh, screw that uptight charity event I was gonna go to, it’s time to talk trading!)
Check out my brand new DVD, ShortStocking - the only guide you'll ever need to profit from short selling!
Related Reading
- None Found
64 Responses
Other Websites Referencing This Post
Leave a Reply
TIM Trades
View All| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | IIJI | $2,79 | $2.95 | $442 |
| Nov 6 | CVI | $4.42 | $4.70 | $530 |
| Nov 5 | MECA | $3.68 | $3.95 | $490 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $5.18 | $4.94 | $472 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $4.83 | $5.01 | $333 |
| Nov 3 | NAK | $3.30 | $3.37 | $157 |
| Oct 31 | IDAE | $2.18 | $2.18 | $20 |
| Oct 30 | HSNI | $7.37 | $7.86 | $561 |
| Oct 29 | EVC | $1.97 | $2.70 | $1439 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.92 | $7.30 | $540 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.20 | $6.00 | $320 |
Total: $34,399 (177%)
I like the post. Smart risks like these will get you to that elusive 25k in no time. Patience pays here bro. May have shorted a tad early, but shorting this thing is the right play. To bad AMTD has no shares otherewise I would be with you.
Tim,
what put IDMI on your trading radar this AM? Was it the volume and price action from day before or was there an intraday screen you ran to find it? Unfortunately, I didn’t see or hear about this on until it had already broken out. Trying to get ahead of the game.
Just look at the daily winners every morning in Yahoo Finance. % gainers are easy to spot. Then you just gotta buy breakouts and short breakdowns. wish i could follow those simple rules like i used to be able to
I have played IDMI many times before the FDA advisory panel shut them down. That was the real fun, buying at 4 to 6, selling calls and buying puts. Shorting at 10 and 8 to see this shit go to sub 1s. It is still a joke and deserves nothing but shorting. It has 20 million more shares now compared when I use to play, but short it away. I’ll join you tomorrow!
thinkorswim and ameritrade both tell me no shares available IDMI
and that my friend is the difficult part about this strategy, sometimes you gotta be early before all the people who see it overnight jump in to do the only rational thing they can do, short sell. maybe i shoulda shorted that extra 500 shares after all, just gotta get up early tomorrow morning and beg for more shares!
That’s a shame. I just shorted 1,000 shares via Tradestation platform. Absolutely no problem (3.72 entry). I like the wild gunslinger approach. I especially like the honesty Tim that that is exactly what you are doing. Let’s face it, rules are rules, but true traders know that rules are meant to be broken. I am joking a bit….but just a bit.
Your going to get punished tomorrow. The money makers are out and are going to push this up to $7 tomorrow and bust all of you. May God have mercy on your money.
Bought in at 1.14 yesterday and sold at 1.51. Made about $3500, but damnnnnnnnnnn did i get pissed when I checked the ticker this afternoon. could of made 20,000.
that’s a symptom of trading during my coffee/lunch breaks and not knowing jack diddly squat about what i’m doing. guess I need to work more on my stop-loss and limits.
I did congratulate myself on buying a day before the huge spike though.
I was able to play some of your January plays via Puts when my broker didn’t have shares to short. Worked fairly well, though tough not being able to play afterhours. Irony is I opened a TOS account and funded it specifically for these types of plays. We will see, not ready to short anyway, sideways action…
I understand people may attack you - but you just make a few lucky trades…
Mark,
Don’t start that kinda talk my friend. I am up $24 right now on the trade. I can afford to take the family out to Hot Dog on a Stick. What kinda coin you banking? I thought so. I think you need to sit back, watch, and take notes. I deserve a little respect for the money that I am making right now. Seriously, I will probably get my face ripped off in the morning, but that’s the way I play. I have had blowups both ways and am still standing to talk about it 13 years later. It’s a blast.
Ya know, I thought Tim was some kind of strange pinball when I first saw his material and the Mojo series. But his straight talk (warts and all) rings true to me. Guy has rules - rules that work if followed, but he is the first to say that he doesn’t follow them all the time. That is a real trader. We all have the things we should do, and we try day in and day out to follow those rules. However, reality is no one can do it every fucking day. Just not possible. I am a convert for no other reason than I believe him. I don’t believe that he has a system that works for everyone. It’s just that the guy is an open book - or at least is trying to be one. He admits that he hypes, pimps, and pushes his material. But guys, you dont have to buy it. And lose the superiority complex when you think you have him figured out and feel the need to shout it from the roof top. Insecure pricks. Ahhh…enough of that. I will sleep like a baby tonight knowing that IDMI will give me something interesting to wake up to in the morning.
played 6000 shares from 3.23 to 3.80 I was down big today but with IDMI for the last hour I made $9400 over and out
ilan,
I dunno, my math comes up with $3,420 for those details, not $9,400. 10-4.
sorry 2.23 to 3.80
ilan,
Nice trade. How did you spot this one before the pop?
Tim, Do you really think 200-1000% return is realistic?
BTW, You said you would add more to your losing position. What kind of strategy is that? Averaging down is a rookies mistake. It is kind of odd coming from someone that has been trading for such a long time. You lost 6% of your total assets in one single trade. And you did not cut your loss. You are playing by your gut feelings.
I think you should be more realistic. And more importantly you should teach the newbies to be realistic, not some bullship like 200%-1000% annual returns.
I look yahoo’s Big % gains and watch it most of the day It was not moving from 1.80 or so then i saw it start moving and i got in @ 2.23
trust Me nothing was good today
A stock is good when it moves in the direction you trade. So many stocks went down. It was very easy to pick a few to short. But if you went long, that would be very hard.
IDMI…up over 600% in 10 days and I couldn’t locate any shares. Maybe I can get lucky and locate some pre-market. This has a buck and a half all over it but I’m sure you’ll cover long before.
zig you right
Of course 200-1000% returns are realistic. It just depends on how often stocks like IDMI pop up. And averaging up DOES work on these plays, you just can’t begin too early. Who cares about losing 6%, who cares if I lose 20-50%. I was trying to be a conservative model for newbies, but it’s just too boring. I made my money the first time being bold, so I guess I’ll be that way again. No guts, no glory
Zig,
Are you telling me that you don’t average into your positions? To me that is reckless trading. I would find it rare that you buy or short a stock all at once and have it immediately go your way. Most traders realize they are never 100% and know full well that its going to take 2 or 3 buys to get it avg at price they value as fair. Hell Stevie Cohen averages into his positions does go for broke on the first buy.
Edit: The above should state “Stevie Cohen averages into his positions and doesn’t go for broke on the first buy.”
KS, I do average into my position. But I only average up. If you are a fundamentalist and you buy a into a business like Buffet, sure you can average down. But as I can see, most people here are traders, including me. Traders should never average down. If your system gives you a hit rate of 60%, you are a winner.
Traders never talk about “fair” prices, only right prices. What is a right price? A price that you can make a profit from. I do not care if a stock is overpriced or not, as long as I can make money from where I bought it or shorted it.
You talk like a fundamentalist.
Hey Tim, how did we miss the short in WSCI? 2 opp to get in, when it broke 10.50 on vol yesterday or at the close for the 18% drop today. Dammit, had this on watch and somehow missed it.
CYOE.OB any opinion?
WSCI–I don’t like shorting earnings breakouts, they’re unpredictable and when it cracked yesterday, thought it had support at $10
Zig, if you read my book or the previous comments, it becomes tough to find shares of these stocks, so you gotta be early. Ideal short probly would have been right before the close and average up into potential morning spike or take profits.
CYOE gradual riser, nice bottom, solid news, no reason to short yet
6% is a big percentage point. Small investors do not want this kind of loss at all. Trading for excitement is a sure path to failure.
I’ve had failure, trust me, this ain’t it. If you’re gonna be hugely successful with these volatile plays, you gotta risk huge drawdowns. If you found an exact way to play these, do let us know, for me, each one is different
I think your own patterns are very good. Why don’t you stick with your own patterns? If you can show your followers an annual return of 30-40%, they would be tickled to death. And I think you can do it if you use your own patterns and are disciplined
This is one of “my own patterns” I’ll have a charts page up shortly so you can see what I mean. And whether I make 30-40% or lose 30-40%, I’ll still be disappointed. To really deal a blow to these disgusting value investors, I gotta go big
Alright folks, I’m probably going to jump in long on IDMI again and punch out when it starts going sideways! Potential for another $3-$7 increase(or $25 if you remember RIGL)
Also for fun do you folks have opinions on:
SIRF? - Potential to regain some of that 50% loss from today, should be at $10 by Friday.
and
GCA? - Pet stock for me. Lost most of value due to investigation. Starting to get good news from 10Q earnings.
This is like watching a car accident in vivid, slow-motion HD television.
I am a total noob sigh. I always wondered how you guys catch stocks that break out. So basicly you just watch the Price % gainers for the day?
Today I got into CHYS at .18 =(. Any thoughts on this one?
one point is very contradicting with what your all time favourite says: Jesse Livermore. He says you should NEVER average up when it goes against you!
Might sound idiotic but Im still not really over your “moon” call on APWR hype play. Since you also want to show your blog viewers here that “Wall Street is full of bullship”. Now think about what your call on this APWR was. NOTHING but pure BULLSHIT!
I dont really think your intenstions are so much to “teach” the people here but to make sure they are on your side when you play those hype games.
Jesse Livermore also committed suicide after losing all his $. Sometime you have to average up, just the way it is with short selling and why many people can’t do it.
as for APWR, i can’t help u, after all i put a ridiculous title, i mentioned my post would be spammed everywhere and that that would help the price even more, i mentioned that reality doesn’t matter, its all about perception, i mentioned it was on the day traders radar screen (they’re fickle), and most importantly, I had this phrase:
“I expect a strong morning surge on hundreds of thousands shares traded and then we gotta see how strong the volume and the price pattern can remain”
Well we got the morning spike and the volume and the pattern crapped out. I was early, but i didn’t like how many sellers there were when it was only up $1. so, i’m proud. call BS somewhere else
and trust me, if i wanted people on my side when i played these hype plays, i’d post in real-time, i could easily front run and with my traffic, i could make some serious cash. but thats not only soulless/unethical, it’s also boring to me. what’s more exciting is if i can teach you boobs how to play these volatile stocks better than me. so you’re not gonna get “hot stock picks”, its gonna take time, but i want u to see how i trade, what works and what doesnt, within a few months or maybe a few years, u’ll understand the variables and patterns so u won’t even need me anymore and that’ll be great because by then, i’ll be sick of exaplining everything!
im with woodshredder!
Tim isnt one of your rules dont short until the first down day. since this was the first major up day, i am hoping for another up day or 2 so the stock goes up to $8-9 any your account is broke rather than tanked! this is probably also how you ended up closing your hedgefund and you seem as if you havnt leaned shit since then! you cant tell me that you closed it because you felt like teaching people rather than making a few million more! instead of claiming how wall street is full of bullship, maybe you should start looking at yourself what you have to offer.
learning from someone who doesnt know how to teach is surely not the way to go
hey tim i think IDMI is going to rally for another day or two-hold on-i hope you are right and IDMI will be down in a week at the longest,i will go long at the opening ride the next wave up-but i think IDMI is up on hype or someone knows somthing we do not and is playing with the options market (cheating) i will go short when IDMI peaks-i willl be watching everyday-will buy the book soon-looks good thanks for being transparent-keep up the good work-T
no my hedge fund lost 30% because i actually believed in the technology of an illiquid penny stock play. i hope idmi does go higher, i’ll just add. this is a total POS and like i’ve been saying for the past dozen posts, shares will become to difficult to borrow, so being early, while painful, is the only way to go. i know it looks like madness, but welcome to the strategy thats made me a million or so
To rephrase another post, teaching people something that you haven’t learned well yourself is just teaching them BULLshit. It sounds to me that you just suffer from ADD (Attention Deficit Disorder). You are not teaching. Each one of your posts, your book, your DVD continuosly proves the point that you still haven’t learned a thing in Stock Market after all these years. You are not any better than Las Vegas gambler. Unfortunately, you also “teach” or “preach” other people, that think you are God or something.
Instead of really teaching, you are putting them on the wrong path. Good luck to you in all your endeavors, but if I have to guess, you will lose all your holdings within a year, and so many of your so-called followers. These people are the ones that I feel really bad about.
IDMI delisting notice today? Tim sometimes you have good timing!
Hahah I will lose all my holdings within a year? I’ve heard that one before! Stick around kid, give this strategy a chance, it never ceases to amaze me how many doubters there are? but i guess when your strategy flies smack in the faces of “acceptable investing”, it should be expected. Trust me, I still don’t understand why these patterns offer such high percentage profits, and as evidenced by my highly flawed timing, I’m still not great at it. But, for all my mistakes, the profits speak for themselves and thats why I am promoting it.
Promoting what? Promoting the fact that you are luckier than others in scratch-off lottery? Com’on. You are not teaching anything. Like I said I feel bad for the people that will lose a lot, because of their blind following.
What you are promoting is your book and dvd with your only intention to profit from it and your website with bunch of advertisements with your only intention to profit from it.
You gotta be kidding me, how many successful trades will it take to show everyone that profiting from penny stocks is not luck! Sure I promote my products but thats because they detail my strategies!
PS JUST COVERED ALL MY POORLY TIMED IDMI TRADE FOR A NICE 12% PROFIT
You are really insecure, aren’t you? You keep defending every little criticism directed at you and your trading? Why don’t just ignore it? Once again you proved your pure luck (aka scratch-off ticket) with your IDMI trade….
You should be a scratch-off ticket salesman, not a day trader.
Insecure, I wish! you’re damn right I’m gonna defend/detail/promote my strategy until my dying breadth because for all the criticism, the numbers rock. I wonder how many more mistimed trades yet substantial profits by TIM will it take to convince you idiots? I don’t mind, I’ve got nothing else to do for the next century!
Still in the IDMI short with 1/2 of my shares - flipped out the others at 2.80. Tim - thanks for that lucky scrach off. ORCT rolling over.
Nice short Tim. Oh and thanks for replying to my email a couple weeks ago about hedge fund careers.
Nice comeback there Timmay.
I hope you close in the green on this one.
-DT
Flipped out ORCT for a nice 5% gain. Next!!
Alvari40 - is there anyway to know a day ahead of time to get into a stock like ORTC before it jumps up $2 llike that at opeing?
Eric T -
Good question. A lot of research, knowledge of sector dynamics, market dynamics, a bit of luck and a number of misses before the home run. I do not mean to be a smart ass. To me, it is a bit easier to game the air coming out of the bubble rather than air going into the bubble for daytrading purposes. I would toss it out there to the group to see what they do. For me, I capyure those runs not from daytrading, but from solid research, patience and persistence. Other than that, jump on the wave when you see the swale. Outside!!!
Watching MFLX for continuation of opening breakout.
Tim, is QSC a short?
ORCT is up on contract news, it was rumored for a bit, but no way to predict it
MFLX is just the latest earnings winner with a strong downtrend, no different than INFN, VPRT, I’d avoid
QSC has some nice topping action, but its a scary AMEX biotech, too scary to be short longterm on it, maybe if it really starts cracking a la TNRO
Tim,
Thx for the info. The contract news was the reason for me to go short on ORCT - too bad I took the 5%, it’s down a bit more from that. It was a good daytrade. Still in the IDMI short with 1/2 shares, looking to see if the double bottom (5 min chart) can be taken out or if it is for real - finger on eject button if it is for real. Scaling into the MFLX move up (scaling in long) to see if we get an afternoon push.
Scratch-off tickets is a bad analogy. Scratch-offs are designed by clever marketing folks to fleece you slowly — more like regular financial services and funds, not TIM!
TIM is more like playing poker as the only sober player at the table, with the other players being a drunken wedding party. You aren’t guaranteed to win but you placed yourself in a great position.
yaktipper, GREAT analogy. enter an irrational market with reason and the odds are on your side
Exited my 2nd 1/2 on IDMI for a 27% gain. Where is the next scratch off? Entering a scalp long on MFLX. It held the lows and is now starting to exhibit volume to upside (5 min chart). Could be a head fake, but I have tight stop.
check out smtk-big pop-going to poop?
smtk is a takeover candidate by CY, avoid