7 Lessons Super Bowl XLII Teaches Investors

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Mon 4th of Feb, 2008 12:12:08 PM
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1. Expect the unexpected: Neither the Giants winning or the low 17-14 final score was expected in the least (Bull markets can’t last forever, stocks DO NOT always trend higher over time)

2. Never trust “experts:” Ex-Giant and “football expert” Tiki Barber was dead wrong when he retired one season too soon while trashing his former teammates and coaches in order to get attention (Don’t listen to “market experts” when they make predictions like Apple (AAPL) $300 and Google (GOOG) $1,000 to get attention)

3. The acknowledged best are not always the best performers: Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, the league MVP, got outplayed by oft-criticized Eli Manning (just because hugely successful companies like Microsoft (MSFT), General Electric (GE) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are leaders in their fields does not mean their stocks will outperform lesser quality rivals)

4. Past performance is not indicative of future returns: For the season, the Patriots came in undefeated, the Giants had lost six games (Wow, this standard SEC disclaimer is actually right on the money for once!)

5. The weakest sometimes become the strongest: Little known Giants wide receiver David Tyree did more in this one game than he had all season, capping his performance off with one of the greatest catches in Super Bowl history (Hurting homebuilders like KB Home (KBH), Toll Brothers (TOL), D.R. Horton (DHI) have been the best performers in the entire stock market as of late)

6. Certain rules are ridiculous: The game was already decided, spectators and press were on the field and Patriots coach Bill Belichick was already in the locker room when two seconds still remained on the game clock, but the NFL made the Giants run one more play (Lots of ridiculous stock market rules: The Pattern Day Trading Rule, hedge fund managers can’t advertise or talk to the press, people in the finance industry are prohibited from reviewing financial books (as I learned with my book)

7. Eyeballs matter: This year, with estimates of 100 million people watching, a 30 second ad cost $2.7 million. (This is why horribly run businesses like Yahoo! (YHOO) can get premium buyout offers)

Disclosure: Giants fan

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5 Responses

  1. I found your site on technorati and read a few of your other posts. Keep up the good work. I just added your RSS feed to my Google News Reader. Looking forward to reading more from you.

    Aaron Wakling

  2. this new site setup is awesome!

  3. Hey Tim,

    Read your book and from your posts I am starting to learn that patience is the key. In the past I have entered positions too quickly and if I only had waited I would have been in better shape.

    BTW, I fond this awesome site where I have been practicing being patient with investing. It is called UpDown.com. They actually pay you if you beat the S&P 500 (sounds like they do it by sharing ad revenue to help generate a user-base). I shorted about 6 homebuilders last night (completely lucky timing) and I will probably make $50 in my paypal account if I close my positions now and do nothing the rest of the month. Here is the info from the site for everyone else out there who want to use the site…..

    * Trade stocks in a simulated environment. Use $1,000,000 in virtual money to create a stock portfolio and see how your stock picking skills compare to those of other members.
    * Be one of thousands to earn real money if you can beat the market or write insightful stock analyses. (The site is still 100% free)

    I have some free invites left, you can join by using this link:

    http://www.updown.com/create-a.....efer=32204

  4. Loving the new site Tim!

  5. Rule 8: Dont let short term fluctutations cloud the big picture:

    “It was a monumental day for the New York Giants, a gritty, well-deserved victory in Super Bowl XLII.

    For the New England Patriots, it was a monumental crash, the loudest in NFL history.

    But in the big picture, it changed nothing about the landscape of the league. The Patriots remain the NFL’s model of excellence, the envy of every organization.

    They still have four Super Bowl appearances in the past seven years and are one of the few teams that you can be sure will have another postseason 11 months from now.

    The Giants? Besides being the reigning Super Bowl champions, they are a one-hit wonder for now. They are Hanson. They just sang “MMMBop,” and if they’ve got anything else to put on an album, well, we’ll just have to see.”

    GREGG PATTON
    The Press-Enterprise

    http://www.pe.com/sports/break.....947e5.html

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