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APWR Is Going To Da Moon, To Da Moon I Tell Ya!

Posted by tim on Sun 3rd of Feb, 2008 01:47:54 PM
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Wind energy is so hot right now. China is also hot right now. And let’s not forget stocks with low floats/low marketcaps that are apparently profitable and definitely breaking out ON RECORD VOLUME are pretty much the only surefire ticket to predicting ridiculously strong price surges. Put all these qualities together and that’s what APWR is right now.

I’m not gonna waste your time or mine by going into all the boring numbers, just know they’re huge, think potential of a billion in sales (not just potential, they’ve got LOIs, or letters of interest, woooo hooo), a low PE ratio—who knows and who cares the specifics—stocks like this move based on hype and possibilities, not exact numbers, and most importantly, it traded nearly half its 2.2 million float on Friday while breaking out to an all-time high after a solid 3-month base and has been embraced by the smallcap gurus at TheLion.com (ensuring it’s on plenty of day traders’ radar screens), I’m just gonna paint you a portrait of how hype works to the advantage of longs here.

Smallcap momentum trading is about finding the most hypeable stocks. Yes, this stock is $3+ past the original breakout point, yes there were sellers—and short sellers—on Friday afternoon (premature fools), trading volume could dry up quickly (considering the stock has never been in play before), but not on Monday—THIS STOCK IS A HYPSTER’S WET DREAM. And that’s why I bought Friday afternoon.If all goes as these kinds of plays usually go, I expect a strong morning surge on hundreds of thousands shares traded and then we gotta see how strong the volume and the price pattern can remain. 2.2 million float, remember it, that’s what matters most, if we can get millions interested in buying, let the short sellers try to hold this sucker down, (supply and demand you bastards, supply and demand!) No doubt somebody will take this post and spam it everywhere and they rightfully should—longs should be proud that they understand this game enough to already be in this play. There’s already plenty of comparisons to EFUT (another low float, low PE, profitable Chinese hype play that famously went from $14 to $50 within 4 days just over 1 year ago) and for good reason. I played EFUT just as I’m playing APWR because the intraday price action is scary similar. $50, sure, it’s possible, but not probable—all I want is $20 though and that’s much more probable than $15.

These low float hype plays (I know I’m repeating myself, but it’s the most important element here) are NOT the kinds of stocks you ever want to short until the price pattern is decidedly bearish (no all-time breakouts, LOL!)—trust me, I’ve tried playing them from that angle too and they tend to go further than anyone thinks possible—but some short sellers haven’t learned that lesson yet (perhaps they should watch my instructional DVD) and their premature entries are what makes these stocks so much fun for longs, for their near-inevitable panic creates short squeezes, aka the only way stocks can spike $1, $2, $5 within a few minutes/hours.

So do your DD, whatever the hell that means—you can’t trust companies, especially Chinese companies, you can’t trust day traders who already bought (me, Superman on TheLion.com and others who will spam this (thanks in advance!)) and you can’t trust this crappy bear market not to intrude on the beauty that are these hype plays. All you can trust is that successful trading is all about entering trades where there’s an overwhemlming number of variables aligned in your favor, which in this case points to being long APWR to da moon! (or whenever the volume/hype wears off)

Disclosure: Long APWR, long the smallcap hype game, long introducing this to the world without all the typical BS through my blog, book and DVD

APWR

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  • Dan
    Great pick. I have this one in my watchlist also for an opening bell trade for Monday. We'll see how it works out.
  • Ron
    Sound's great to me. Im already in early, lets ride it to the moon baby.
  • Long APWR 14.50 and DESC .55 both WInd Energy
  • Tony Ellis
    NICE!!!!
  • Frank Tudor
    Tim, I am following your information on both the lion and your own site. Thanks for posting this. Great info!
  • Neil
    I dont own any wind stocks but if you listen to T. Boone Pickens (most famous oil investor) He is heavy into wind right now.
  • Jason R.
    TIM, new web site is awesome...Very cool feature in the progress bar(TIM PROGRESS) and buy/sell profit/loss chart!!
  • PookieTheLion
    Awesome Website!
  • Tim
    Just sold my APWR at $18.78, solid 6% gain just for holding over the weekend. This was a HIGHLY PREDICTABLE pattern--the Friday afternoon hype, Monday gap up--sometime you get $1/share, sometimes you get $12/share (made $123k on ISCO back in 2000)
  • lmsmith
    Nice-- I am ready to cash in!
  • NS
    What happened to waiting for $20 Tim?
  • Tim
    Who cares about $20, I just threw one possibility out there. I'm notoriously quick on my trigger finger, I enjoy taking easy gains too much
  • NS
    Who cares about 20?

    "all I want is 20
    "APWR is going to da moon"
  • Tim
    Apparently you don't get the gist of how hype works and what my article was all about. I can say APWR is going to $5,000, but if the price action doesn't support it, it doesn't matter.
  • NS
    Yeah, I guess not. I thought you were offering more than hype.
  • Tim
    Correct, I'm offering lessons in hype. This is how hype works, learnnnnnnnnn
  • be-the-ball
    nice trade Tim, flipped my APWR (was in midday Friday) in the premarket as well.
  • Joseph
    to da moon!!! huh I hope you sell that sucker, because it's going down, down to the bottom I say!
  • Joseph
    You're offering lessons in hype...lol you're killing me man loooool
  • Tim
    Joseph, yeah man I could care less about this or any other company, it was ripe to be hyped so I helped out a bit. Took my $1+/share and then said goodbye, next!
  • Joseph
    lol I got yah. Again, nice website!
  • lmsmith
    Good call tim- that thing went right back down.....
  • Cletus
    Joseph, my address is 142 New St. Portsmouth, RI 02871. Send me a check with all the money you are planning to invest and I will promise you I will use your money wisely. I'll even take pictures of anything I buy so you can see I am putting it to you good use. Theres no ro reason to throw it away on stocks because thats what you are doing with comments like this.

    Honestly, were you serious. You actually thought that this was more than hype? Tim even said it was just hype.
  • lmsmith
    Tim - remember your play on SOLF? Well- I picked it up once it dropped to $16- on Thursday- It's doing well- sell that sucka today- I guess is all in the entry point....
  • Tim
    Yah I'm watching SOLF along with all the other solar stocks I just highlighted in this AOL article the other day:

    http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/01/30/solar-...

    It's all about momentum, solar shorts are scared and they should be
  • Joseph
    Chill, Cletus! I'm fresh meat, I'm just learning. But nah, I knew it was just hype, in fact the first things that came to mind when I looked it up were- AKNS and that it was a great short...Relax
  • Joseph
    Ride it again!!! This ain't hype, it will go back up
  • timsykes
    I'll ride it when it deserves to be ridden. I don't buy into stocks up this much when they can't hold their daily gains and the volume is fading. Those are usually shorts, but since this is a true breakout, it's just an avoid
  • Hey Tim,

    Read your book and from your posts I am starting to learn that patience is the key. In the past I have entered positions too quickly and if I only had waited I would have been in better shape.

    BTW, I fond this awesome site where I have been practicing being patient with investing. It is called UpDown.com. They actually pay you if you beat the S&P 500 (sounds like they do it by sharing ad revenue to help generate a user-base). I shorted about 6 homebuilders last night (completely lucky timing) and I will probably make $50 in my paypal account if I close my positions now and do nothing the rest of the month. Here is the info from the site for everyone else out there who want to use the site
  • Whiskey Mac
    Tim,
    Rather interesting your choice of APRW from the onset. I bought it Monday morning (not seeing through your Sunday hype lesson) and I was fooled all the way. Although I am currently in a lossing position, it was interesting to note while the DOW and NASDAC are down some 3% today, APRW was up (small but still up). In addition its volume today was some 3 times higher that the avergae. Thanks for the tip. I thing I might hang in there a few more days and see if there's a bit of meat to get out of this trade.
    Mac
  • timsykes
    Yah exactly it snot like this a pump and dump, this is a solid breakout, so long termers should do okay too. There's money in these plays for everyone, all depends on your comfort level and ability to handle risk
  • skibare
    what do you think of the wind play now with earnings coming monday????????
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Date Stock Buy Sell Net
Nov 19 AENY $2.80 $3.02 $1148
Nov 18 NLST $4.16 $4.40 $947
Nov 18 IMGG $1.42 $1.64 $2094
Nov 17 NLST $5.04 $5.59 $2195
Nov 13 VRMLQ $21.50 $22.97 $2901
Nov 11 EONC $2.61 $2.80 $687
Nov 10 EONC $2.74 $3.36 $9784
Nov 6 QXM $4.31 $4.80 $1936
Nov 4 COT $8.66 $8.88 $642
Nov 4 QXM $4.61 $4.89 $822
Oct 30 DDRX $25.70 $26.53 $812
Oct 29 CTDC $4.00 $4.42 $781
Oct 26 AWSL $3.24 $4.10 $2516
Oct 23 RODM $5.27 $5.23 $301
Oct 22 AMLM $2.69 $2.97 $820
Oct 22 USEG $6.12 $6.09 $85
Oct 20 CBOU $8.93 $9.06 $243
Oct 16 VRMLQ $16.79 $18.65 $2773
Oct 13 YONG $11.05 $11.66 $1202
Oct 13 NPHC $0.59 $0.71 $583
Oct 12 IMGG $0.60 $0.70 $682
Oct 9 ZAGG $5.50 $6.10 $2380
Oct 7 GVBP $0.03 $0.27 $702
Oct 1 NPHC $0.70 $0.85 $1482

Total: $98,094 (681%)