TIM: Day 1 Review

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TIM Portfolio $12,385 (-$30 on the day)

DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all flat (contrary to media BS, anything less than a 2% move is flat)…you can sense some fear in the marketplace over credit worries—big-timers like Julian Robertson and Jim Rogers think economy is in big trouble—but the bears can’t seem to hold the indexes down for very long…it’s a waiting game to see how this all plays out.
Market Bias: Sl

ightly Bearish

No perfect trade setups today, but I made sure to buy 50,000 shares of Cygnus eTransactions Group, Inc. (Other OTC:CYGT.PK ) at 8 cents ($4,030 total cost, including broker fees—probly could’ve worked the order to get in at 7 cents, but I didn’t want to risk it considering the heavy trading volume early morning) because it’s the perfect kind of speculative play for my tiny account. The stock could double or triple within a few days on any good news - which would yield a profit of $4-$8k for TIM - and with the recent CEO news , there doesn’t seem to be much risk of them going under anytime soon. No other stock I know of has such upside potential with such little downside risk (even before the CEO news, CYGT found a base at 5 cents)

Even though this stock was the sole reason for my hedge fund’s 30%+ losses (and investors, including myself and my family have over 1.5 million shares (3/4 of which are restricted stock)), I still haven’t learned my lesson because I’m in love with their technology and its potential so this one position now represents 32% of TIM assets. Perhaps a bit bold, but let me explain.

This new 39-year-old CEO (c’mon, the former head of ticketing at Disney AND Six Flags agrees to lead this POS $3 million ticketing company?!?!?! You gotta think he considers this to be “his shot” that will make or break his career) brings some much needed credibility to the table (hopefully he can also get some financing) and I’m glad to see the trading volume picking up (my buying was only 1/3 of daily volume today) as a few people seem to have done the math and realize the risk/reward ratio at these prices is very favorable.

Let’s examine all the risks and rewards one-by-one:

Risks:

1. No audited financials, illiquid stock traded on the Pink Sheets (most brokers won’t allow their customers to buy) (if I wanted to sell right now, the spread alone would make me lose 25%, or $1,000)
2. Six Flags (NYSE: SIX) represents the overwhelming majority of CYGT revenues and their business ain’t doing so well.
3. My long-time emotional attachment to the company - I might not be able to use rational judgment on this one.
4. Many shareholders who have burned over the past year or two will sell on any price increase (read my book)
5. If their upcoming third quarter (their most profitable) doesn’t live up to last year’s nearly $300,000 quarterly profits and funding isn’t announced, it could be a long cold winter and this is not a business that can necessarily last through long cold winters.

Rewards:

1. Potential to double or triple on good earnings (probably by mid-November)
2. Potential to double or triple on financing news (probably by year-end)
3. Potential to triple, quadruple, quintuple, etc. if a promoter decides to pick this one up
4. CEO news proves I’m not the only idiot who believes in this technology and this guy has a lot more industry knowledge and experience than me
5. Live Nation (NYSE:LYV) just dumped Ticketmaster and is looking for somebody new to takeover their $170 million/year contract (obviously a longshot, but still a possibility)
6. Lawsuit with Universal Studios appears to be settled
7. Profitable 8 cent stock with proprietary technology and several blue chip customers (Six Flags, Hershey, AAA) who base their entire online ticketing operations on this technology (told you I was emotionally attached!)
8. Upcoming IAAPA Attractions Expo Nov. 13-16^th (I’m attending) during which CYGT is introducing their next generation platform – able to handle not only online ticket sales, but designed to handle an attraction’s ENTIRE ticketing. I think Six Flags and Hershey, like every other attraction, will want to consolidate all their ticketing onto one system so if they choose CYGT’s new platform, CYGT’s $4 million annual revenues should double (conservatively) and most, if not all, will fall to the bottom line.
9. Recently partnered with NCR, (to handle the hardware so CYGT can focus on what they do best: software) a multi-billion dollar company.
10. Recent surge in message board interest and trading volume indicates there’s some interest out there.

Conclusion: Rewards outnumber risks two to one, and that’s why I think this stock will see a bid of 24 cents for me to sell into within the next few weeks. I’ll know a lot more after the IAAPA Expo next week, but it’s been my experience that it’s good to buy on rumor, sell on news.

Disclosure: Timothy Sykes, his family, his hedge fund’s investors and now TIM all own shares in CYGT.

Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider this stock to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

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