TIM: 11.06.07 Potential Plays
Posted by Timothy Sykes on Mon 5th of Nov, 2007 09:16:37 PM
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Outside of CYGT, as much as I’d like to start putting my money to work right away, after dedicating the weekend to researching potential trades, I’ve concluded there aren’t any worthy plays right now. Monday’s action severed up a few potential plays, but nothing eye popping and as you’ll soon discover, it’s those eye poppers that are the real fortune builders. Contrary to popular belief, you don’t need to trade every day, or even
every week for that matter. Patience is crucial - wait for the markets to serve you up some incredible situations instead of trying to will them into existence.
You see responsible financial speculation comes down to taking advantage of worthy opportunities and ignoring the lesser quality plays. You should prepare for weeks and days before any and all trades because these stocks move fast – there’s no time to think during the battle so you must plan for all possibilities ahead of time. You can never be 100% sure of anything – unless you’re part of the darker side of the market – but with enough research, patience and know how, the odds can definitely be in your favor.
Below, I’ve listed a few potential plays for Tuesday and the kind of price action I’m looking for before entering any trades. Even if I do enter, considering they’re all lacking in perfect setups, these will be small trading positions (less than 10% of assets per play).
Potential Bounce Plays
Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX), maker of those incredibly comfortable shoes, has gotten crushed since their earnings disappointed a few days ago. I under stand a 20% even a 30% drop considering how priced for perfection shares were at $75, but now at $41.50, a 45% drop, I think this is a little overdone. But I’m not going to try to catch a falling knife until I see some stabilization, as only then will a spike higher be possible. Goal is to make $2-$5/share on any spike.
Lululemon Athletica (Nasdaq: LULU), a maker of yoga inspired clothing, is another fashion play that has tanked recently. After squeezing the shorts after reporting strong earnings in mid-October, shares are down 26% in 10 trading sessions. A few articles have come out in the past few days that said a close below $45 was very bearish – great! Now that the stock closed at $43.73, I’m looking for further weakness to open a position ideally below $40 because unlike CROX, this company’s business is really booming beyond all expectations. Goal is to make $2-$4/share.
Another high-flier that’s gotten destroyed on a slight earnings miss, Vasco Data Systems (Nasdaq: VDSI), a maker of security products, down over 40% in the past few days should bounce soon, too, buuuuuuut this one has tried to bounce and has failed several times so I expect further weakness before any sustained bounce. Goal is to make $1/share.
The last potential bounce play I’m looking at is China Finance Online (Nasdaq: JRJC), basically TheStreet.com of China—this one is 25% or so off its highs, not because of an earnings miss, but because shares tripled from $15 to $45 over the previous few weeks. There is risk is it cracks $32 on the downside so I’d like to see some serious trading volume and price strength before buying because there’s still a ton of downside risk all the way to the mid-$20s. Goal is to make $3-$5/share.
Next Generation Mobile Phone Plays
Synaptics (Nasdaq: SYNA), which I’ve covered extensively here and here , should keep moving higher, but I’ll only look to buy it on the breakout of $61.72. This is my favorite stock—too bad it’s so highly priced.
Nuance Communications (Nasdaq: NUAN), a maker of speech products, after rising rather steadily for the past year, is now a $4 billion company, but still fundamentally undervalued is you count a forward PE of 27 and an annual growth rate around 45-50%. I’m looking to buy on weakness, but the stock is pretty boring so chances aren’t great.
Wind River Systems (Nasdaq: WIND), a maker of mobile device software, broke out to a year high at $12.41 today as people speculated as to the company’s involvement with the Google Phone. Stock faded throughout the day though so that’s not a very good sign going forward.
Alibaba.com Hype Plays
With all the hype surrounding the Alibaba IPO, I’m looking to short some of the main beneficiaries of all the hype. Sohu.com (Nasdaq: SOHU) and Global Sources (Nasdaq: GSOL ) are the two main plays. It’s difficult to judge though because I have such precious few dollars and these are expensive stocks that usually move pretty gradually. If I do enter, it’ll be a multi-day hold for sure. Goal is to make $2-$4/share
Watching Superconductor Technologies (Nasdaq: SCON) and Cardica (Nasdaq:CRDC )—both of these plays need to show me some volume and volatility to interest me one way or the other.
PennyStocking Plays
These plays are purely technical-based, many of them have been hyped in newsletters, on message boards and through the use of puffy PRs. None of them are very worthy opportunities, but all are worth watching.
Mexoro Minerals (OTCBB: MXOM ) $1.77, Confirmed Breakout at $1.50
China Clean Energy (OTCBB: CCGY ) $2.80, Breakout is at $3
NNRF (Other OTC: NNRI ) $2.65, Possible Bottom at $2, Now a Bounce Play
Terra Nostra Resources (OTCBB: TNRO ) $5.10, Potential Double-Top or Breakout at $5.90
Tower Tech Holdings (OTCBB: TWRT ) $10.93, Potential Supernova Chart Pattern
Disclosure: Timothy Sykes and TIM don’t have any positions, these are only potential plays!
Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider some of these stocks to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.
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TIM Trades
View All| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19 | AENY | $2.80 | $3.02 | $1148 |
| Nov 18 | NLST | $4.16 | $4.40 | $947 |
| Nov 18 | IMGG | $1.42 | $1.64 | $2094 |
| Nov 17 | NLST | $5.04 | $5.59 | $2195 |
| Nov 13 | VRMLQ | $21.50 | $22.97 | $2901 |
| Nov 11 | EONC | $2.61 | $2.80 | $687 |
| Nov 10 | EONC | $2.74 | $3.36 | $9784 |
| Nov 6 | QXM | $4.31 | $4.80 | $1936 |
| Nov 4 | COT | $8.66 | $8.88 | $642 |
| Nov 4 | QXM | $4.61 | $4.89 | $822 |
| Oct 30 | DDRX | $25.70 | $26.53 | $812 |
| Oct 29 | CTDC | $4.00 | $4.42 | $781 |
| Oct 26 | AWSL | $3.24 | $4.10 | $2516 |
| Oct 23 | RODM | $5.27 | $5.23 | $301 |
| Oct 22 | AMLM | $2.69 | $2.97 | $820 |
| Oct 22 | USEG | $6.12 | $6.09 | $85 |
| Oct 20 | CBOU | $8.93 | $9.06 | $243 |
| Oct 16 | VRMLQ | $16.79 | $18.65 | $2773 |
| Oct 13 | YONG | $11.05 | $11.66 | $1202 |
| Oct 13 | NPHC | $0.59 | $0.71 | $583 |
| Oct 12 | IMGG | $0.60 | $0.70 | $682 |
| Oct 9 | ZAGG | $5.50 | $6.10 | $2380 |
| Oct 7 | GVBP | $0.03 | $0.27 | $702 |
| Oct 1 | NPHC | $0.70 | $0.85 | $1482 |
Total: $98,094 (681%)
